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Central PA Winter 23/24


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Just had a fantastic hour of radiational cooling.  At 10:00pm my temp was 18 degrees.  45 minutes later it had crashed to 10.9 degrees.  I'm 0.3 degrees above my low of 10.6 from this morning.  Clear skies, no wind, solid snow cover all contribute intense radiational cooling.  Someone put the brakes on around 11:00 as the drop suddenly stopped at 10.9.  That's where it is now at 11:37.  With a dew point of +2 degrees there's lots of room for further drops as the night progresses.  I'm pretty sure these conditions are supposed to last the entire night.  We'll see in the morning.

BTW...my meltdown yesterday of my 3.3" of snow came out to 0.31" which produced an SLR of 10.6 : 1.

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2:23a. Surprised to realize we are way off our westher.gov temp prediction -- by 10 degrees. I wonder if we will drop more? Are they going to update forecast?

Current conditions at Williamsport - Lycoming County Airport (KIPT)

Overnight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Fair

6°F 

Humidity    76%
Wind Speed    Calm
Barometer    30.10 in (1020.3 mb)
Dewpoint    0°F (-18°C)
Visibility    10.00 mi
Last update    18 Jan 1:54 am EST
 

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14 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

2:23a. Surprised to realize we are way off our westher.gov temp prediction -- by 10 degrees. I wonder if we will drop more? Are they going to update forecast?

Current conditions at Williamsport - Lycoming County Airport (KIPT)

Overnight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Fair

6°F 

Humidity    76%
Wind Speed    Calm
Barometer    30.10 in (1020.3 mb)
Dewpoint    0°F (-18°C)
Visibility    10.00 mi
Last update    18 Jan 1:54 am EST
 

down to 10 now at 2:44 temps have more a less stabilized. Temp has gone down slower then the last few hours. 

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11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

3km Nam improvements over 18z & 0z are quite substantial. A good bit south with the qpf swath (similar to what the hrrr did) 

a couple hours ago saw some one talk about the cold air energy getting close to merging with this storm vs what the runs had just earlier today. Does it still look the polar energy is getting closer is thats whats causing better model runs?

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
425 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

PAZ004-005-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056>059-
063>066-182300-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0008.240119T0600Z-240120T0600Z/
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway,
Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College,
Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown,
Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg,
Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
425 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

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Seriously, what is up at MDT.
Even the surface of hell at Cap City Airport is at 16 currently!
IMG_4530.thumb.jpeg.8283def3bfc0354481618200a6d3011f.jpeg
It's amazing what having a big wide river running north to south a couple hundred feet from a weather station will do. Especially in climates with west being the prevailing wins component.

Capital City enjoys a nice downslope from the hills that ring around it's SSW to WSW sides. In more mixed atmospheres you get a nice little warming and drying effect. They average 5-10% less rain than KMDT,not even 5 miles away. Subjectively my gut feels that the area In a couple mile radius has a paucity of storm wind and hail reports within our already low regional averages. But I have no clue if it's objectively even possible to tease that out in a way where it would pass any t-test like test. But the airport also sits in a nice little bowl that can be sneaky with inversions. I'm sure the sw winds picking up won sooner rather than later.

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Icon has more for me than the Nam did.    Mitch too.  That was not a right proper namming.  Need to be 3X higher than any other model...LOL. 
Has there ever been a NAMMING locally even in the same Galaxy as the one 3 days prior to the 2016 storm? I remember up until that storm that year and the one prior the NAM had a huge streak of NAMMING hard days before then either pulling out carpet 24 hours before or even going down with its fantasy hours before. But that storm it laughed manically in our faces while throwing out all time record snows like those who enjoy no bid government contracts do at certain clubs. It stuck to its guns all alone for awhile while before the big boys woke up and realized the NAM had made off with each of their wife's together.

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27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Has there ever been a NAMMING locally even in the same Galaxy as the one 3 days prior to the 2016 storm? I remember up until that storm that year and the one prior the NAM had a huge streak of NAMMING hard days before then either pulling out carpet 24 hours before or even going down with its fantasy hours before. But that storm it laughed manically in our faces while throwing out all time record snows like those who enjoy no bid government contracts do at certain clubs. It stuck to its guns all alone for awhile while before the big boys woke up and realized the NAM had made off with each of their wife's together.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I think 2016 is one of the Nam's moments where it rests on its Laurels.   For me, a namming with this storm would have been at least 8-12" area wide.  Many of the outputs last night were not far from the what the Rgem showed a couple days ago.  

 

16 here this Am which is also the low for the day.  Rose from 8-16 before midnight last night. 

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Scanned through everything on Pivotal and pretty amazing how one spot, Harrisburg falls between 2.5-3.1" (Edit, just saw the 6Z Euro had 3.6") - on almost everything considered top line models.     More consistent than some other systems which frequently had 1-2 defectors with higher or lower numbers.   The 2-4 Advisory seems like the right call. 

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Temperatures have started to rebound across the area with clouds on the increase after a low of 14 degrees at 330 this morning. A cloudy day today with temps remaining below freezing across most of Chester County for the 4th consecutive. The below freezing streak looks to continue across the area until Monday at the earliest. Light snow should arrive toward daybreak tomorrow and continue much of the day tomorrow. Snow totals should range from 2" to 4" across SW Chester County to 3" to 5" as we move NE through Chester County and into Montgomery and Bucks counties. We could see a little blowing and drifting snow later Friday night into Saturday and temps will struggle to get much above the teens with wind chills near or below zero. A warming trend gets underway next week as we get our January Thaw.
Records for today: High 66 (1973) / Low 4 below (1994) / Rain 1.15" (1915) / Snow 6.0" (1930)
image.png.7849d01d1ea287668a69eec084155598.png
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 From DT @11pm last night: FIRST GUESS MAP FOR JAN 19
To begin with… for anybody in the state of VA this is a non-event. Almost the entire state will miss out on the snow and I expect that is going to be the case for Washington DC as well. There might be a 1 inch snow accumulation in the far NW corner of VA. BUT this will be a pretty good snowfall for most of WV. The 6-inch band of snow in the Greenbrier Valley may end up being more like 9 or 10 inches because of the high snow ratio.
The HIGH SNOW RATIO due to the arrival of the Arctic air is going to be a factor in the storm which was going to make the snow forecast particularly tricky. Remember that most of the snow amounts on the models are based upon a 10 to 1 snow ratio. That is to say 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow. But in Arctic air… the snow ratio goes up and it can easily approach values of 13 to 1 or 15 to 1.
On the other, as I have stated earlier, this is a VERY FAST MOVING ystem. So we are not looking at a long duration event here. The upper level energy and the surface LOW not get together in time to produce a big Coastal storm.
Looking at the latest data I do see some interesting Trends which are occurring in the short range models. The system continues to look quite innocuous and not significant on the 18z WED and 0z THU op- GFS. And the 12z and 18z op-European models aren't showing much of anything either.
However the high resolution short range models are showing something interesting. The 0Z THUR 3km NAM shows an explosion of moderate to heavy snow developing in central PA pushing into northern NJ by midday on Friday. As the upper level energy and the surface LOW finally begin to coalesce the snow becomes extremely heavy Friday afternoon for several hours in southeast PA including the Philly metro area all of NJ NYC LI across southern Rhode Island and the extreme Southern portions of Mass.
This is also supported by the high-resolution mesoscale HRRR model which shows more the same. It also develops a burst of extremely heavy snow from northeast MD into northern DEL (including Wilmington) into the Philly metro area and then up into northern NJ and NYC which expands later on Friday afternoon across all of Long Island coastal CT and again the far southern tip of Mass. .
If these snow rates actually materialize the next updated snow map will probably have 6 inches into a good portion of Central and southern NJ Again I am worried about the snow ratios producing amounts closer to 8 inches portions of eastern PA including Lehigh Valley and the Philly Metro area.
 
May be an image of map and text that says 'FIRST GUESS ISSUED: 1045PM est 1/17/24 W Rısk com VALID 4AM 9AM 1/19/24 ALB BGM HFD 2" BW 6' CRW ACY CHO ROA NORFOLK'
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4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:
 From DT @11pm last night: FIRST GUESS MAP FOR JAN 19
To begin with… for anybody in the state of VA this is a non-event. Almost the entire state will miss out on the snow and I expect that is going to be the case for Washington DC as well. There might be a 1 inch snow accumulation in the far NW corner of VA. BUT this will be a pretty good snowfall for most of WV. The 6-inch band of snow in the Greenbrier Valley may end up being more like 9 or 10 inches because of the high snow ratio.
The HIGH SNOW RATIO due to the arrival of the Arctic air is going to be a factor in the storm which was going to make the snow forecast particularly tricky. Remember that most of the snow amounts on the models are based upon a 10 to 1 snow ratio. That is to say 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow. But in Arctic air… the snow ratio goes up and it can easily approach values of 13 to 1 or 15 to 1.
On the other, as I have stated earlier, this is a VERY FAST MOVING ystem. So we are not looking at a long duration event here. The upper level energy and the surface LOW not get together in time to produce a big Coastal storm.
Looking at the latest data I do see some interesting Trends which are occurring in the short range models. The system continues to look quite innocuous and not significant on the 18z WED and 0z THU op- GFS. And the 12z and 18z op-European models aren't showing much of anything either.
However the high resolution short range models are showing something interesting. The 0Z THUR 3km NAM shows an explosion of moderate to heavy snow developing in central PA pushing into northern NJ by midday on Friday. As the upper level energy and the surface LOW finally begin to coalesce the snow becomes extremely heavy Friday afternoon for several hours in southeast PA including the Philly metro area all of NJ NYC LI across southern Rhode Island and the extreme Southern portions of Mass.
This is also supported by the high-resolution mesoscale HRRR model which shows more the same. It also develops a burst of extremely heavy snow from northeast MD into northern DEL (including Wilmington) into the Philly metro area and then up into northern NJ and NYC which expands later on Friday afternoon across all of Long Island coastal CT and again the far southern tip of Mass. .
If these snow rates actually materialize the next updated snow map will probably have 6 inches into a good portion of Central and southern NJ Again I am worried about the snow ratios producing amounts closer to 8 inches portions of eastern PA including Lehigh Valley and the Philly Metro area.
 
May be an image of map and text that says 'FIRST GUESS ISSUED: 1045PM est 1/17/24 W Rısk com VALID 4AM 9AM 1/19/24 ALB BGM HFD 2" BW 6' CRW ACY CHO ROA NORFOLK'

I’ll take DT’s 4 to 6 in my yard & for the Harrisburg area.

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i checked on [mention=2708]Atomixwx[/mention] i was told he got a couple week vacation, but should be back soon. 
Tuesdays storm wasn't the same without you. Glad you're back.

This place also isn't the same without @Atomixwx endearing stream of consciousness.

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