mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, here’s a question… Has anyone thought maybe the Pivotal maps are wrong? Why would commercial clients & hobbyists pay good money for access to maps if they weren’t accurate model output? They've always been consistent with Ncep and Tt. But I think there may be another explanation. Your maps say 3k HRRR while Pivotal don't. That may be the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, here’s a question… Has anyone thought maybe the Pivotal maps are wrong? Why would commercial clients & hobbyists pay good money for access to maps if they weren’t accurate model output? I do have an honest, factual point to what you're saying. Virtually every single snow map that was posted for yesterday's event (I went back and looked at every one of them, even though it pained me) had Lanco getting between 4 up to yes including, 7" of snow. Most Lanco ACTUAL snowfall totals were between 2.5 and 3.5". That is not an uncommon occurrence. The vast (and I do mean VAST) majority of time...what actually accumulates is less than those snow maps. Are there exceptions? Sure. But they're just that - exceptions. Which is reason #27 why I don't like snow maps. They are usually too inflated. I believe I'm not speaking incorrectly here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I just don't think you can look at snow maps and say "well, we should be good for what the maps are showing" - that almost always results in disappointment. I'll take the under and win a king's ransom more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I do have an honest, factual point to what you're saying. Virtually every single snow map that was posted for yesterday's event (I went back and looked at every one of them, even though it pained me) had Lanco getting between 4 up to yes including, 7" of snow. Most Lanco ACTUAL snowfall totals were between 2.5 and 3.5". That was not an uncommon occurrence. The vast (and I do mean VAST) majority of time...what actually accumulates is less than those snow maps. Are there exceptions? Sure. But they're just that - exceptions. Which is reason #27 why I don't like snow maps. They are usually too inflated. I believe I'm not speaking incorrectly here. Personally, I love the snowfall maps. Sure, they're often inaccurate, but so are the forecasts and most of us know that there's no guarantee as to their accuracy. But I get what you're saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Speaking of snowfall maps, 18z Euro. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 In fairness @Blizzard of 93 - MU's Kyle Elliott agrees with you. (It wouldn't be right for me not to post this after my rebuttal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Speaking of snowfall maps, 18z Euro. Lol That map goes directly opposite of what our area's likely leading met just posted. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: That map goes directly opposite of what our area's likely leading met just posted. LOL Nobody's perfect! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I do have an honest, factual point to what you're saying. Virtually every single snow map that was posted for yesterday's event (I went back and looked at every one of them, even though it pained me) had Lanco getting between 4 up to yes including, 7" of snow. Most Lanco ACTUAL snowfall totals were between 2.5 and 3.5". That is not an uncommon occurrence. The vast (and I do mean VAST) majority of time...what actually accumulates is less than those snow maps. Are there exceptions? Sure. But they're just that - exceptions. Which is reason #27 why I don't like snow maps. They are usually too inflated. I believe I'm not speaking incorrectly here. I agree, most of the time snow maps are slightly over inflated in general across Pivotal, WB, etc. The various models “spin the wheel” for the jackpot areas run to run. I like them for a general idea of a range for expectations. I’ve learned to throw out the higher end outliers, but the low end outlier is often not the best. Just as most things in life in general, the real answer usually ends up in the middle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: In fairness @Blizzard of 93 - MU's Kyle Elliott agrees with you. (It wouldn't be right for me not to post this after my rebuttal) Very nice! I also read his pattern overview that he put out last week & it was a very detailed, yet easy to understand outlook. I will look forward to reading his work moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Down to 13 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z Euro had its best run since a couple of days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Eps snowfall map improved too. 12z Eps snowfall on top 18z on bottom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z Euro had its best run since a couple of days ago. Blizz as I said Monday bring it home for us Friday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I was looking in the MA forum and there are a few forecast maps posted from tv mets and Nws. I know some will disagree, but from what I've seen, they are all too high. It's my humble opinion that because the Monday storm produced on the high side of forecasts, especially in the DC/BALT area, mets are going on the high side for this event. I saw the those local tv mets down there do it when I lived there for 60+ years just like they always liked to lowball early season minor events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It’s encouraging to see the 18Z Euro improve. It felt like we were slipping towards the low end of the 1-3, so to see the Euro bounce back is quite nice. Now…no better time to get NAMed then at 0Z!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I was looking in the MA forum and there are a few forecast maps posted from tv mets and Nws. I know some will disagree, but from what I've seen, they are all too high. It's my humble opinion that because the Monday storm produced on the high side of forecasts, especially in the DC/BALT area, mets are going on the high side for this event. I saw the those local tv mets down there do it when I lived there for 60+ years just like they always liked to lowball early season minor events. I agree. Some of the tv mets have 3 or 4 inches in DC. I'm thinking around an inch for DC 1 to 2 for Balt. Maybe 3 towards the M/D line max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I agree. Some of the tv mets have 3 or 4 inches in DC. I'm thinking around an inch for DC 1 to 2 for Balt. Maybe 3 towards the M/D line max. Surprised the temps still not being talked about. Could be 35ish down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Surprised the temps still not being talked about. Could be 35ish down there. That's typical down there, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Dang, Nam looks a lot better at 30 hrs....famous last words. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gets better at 33. If I didn't know better, I'd say we're going to get Named 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think it's going to be close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Philly and nw burbs are the place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think it's going to be close but no cigar. Man it looks good may not be want we want but 2-4” state wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Man it looks good may not be want we want but 2-4” state wide NAMing is underway….! Maps coming in a few minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: NAMing is underway….! Maps coming in a few minutes Definitely for the eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3k different but a Naming for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Based purely on the Nam, this is really close to something bigger. 4-6 hour difference between this and a general 6-10" event for many imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: NAMing is underway….! Maps coming in a few minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Based purely on the Nam, this is really close to something bigger. 4-6 hour difference between this and a general 6-10" event for many imho. Agreed, definitely more interaction with the coastal this NAM run. If timing improves, there would be some upside even further back in CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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