Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just look at MDT's numbers for the month and they are STILL 5 AN...crazy. With the warm spell progged next week, the final numbers are going to be pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just look at MDT's numbers for the month and they are STILL 5 AN...crazy. With the warm spell progged next week, the final numbers are going to be pretty ugly. Well we got a good bit of winter out of it whatever they are counting and more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Well we got a good bit of winter out of it whatever they are counting and more to come. Sure, I was refencing the AN/BN totals at MDT for January. The +5 right now is very high for this far into a month. It is going to be knocked down some over the next 3-5 days but if we have a warm last week, the final numbers will be toasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Well we got a good bit of winter out of it whatever they are counting and more to come. and an upcoming period of neg departures to subtract from the "ugly". Like you I'll enjoy the current winter and will worry about ugly later, and with a few beers, it may not look so bad after all...:). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 btw, one of "our" guys is coming back from a break on the board. I'll let you figure out who.... I promised him that most of the crap that's been going on recently seems to have subsided and that trolls seem to have crawled back into their caves. Of course good "outsiders" ARE ALWAYS WELCOME. Hoping we keep it that way. Heres to HH not shartin the bed any further and keeping our 1-3 safely in play so we can all enjoy a winter weekend. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I posted CTP's map last evening for the Friday event - looks like they've ADDED 1" to their new map: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I posted CTP's map last evening for the Friday event - looks like they've ADDED 1" to their new map: Seems decent. Like you said, it may not impact roads much if it comes down lightly all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I posted CTP's map last evening for the Friday event - looks like they've ADDED 1" to their new map: looks like they followed a few of our forecasts....i mean guesses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 IF that verifies, the only ones that wouldnt approve would be the plain clothes snowmobilers from Quarryville that were jackpotted this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Radar presentation gives the appearance of a CCB and really emphasizes the coastal for those North/East of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam is looking to have more coastal interraction. Jackpot looking north similar to HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looking at snowfall maps is disappointing unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like a 10am to 7pm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I like this 18Z NAM better than 12Z NAM. Looks like and inverted trough interaction that enhances snows south and east towards PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k Nam looks like the srefs past 2 runs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=58&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3K looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mitchnick said: 3k Nam looks like the srefs past 2 runs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=58&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Yep 2-3" not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Vort pass is moving north. I saw that on the Srefs last 2 runs and thought they may be out to lunch, but at least the Nam twins are moving toward them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Might not even need a broom for that depiction here. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 JB still thinking magic of 4-8" with no phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Vort pass is moving north. I saw that on the Srefs last 2 runs and thought they may be pit to lunch, but at least the Nam twins are moving toward them. Remember what model showed that earlier today...not him but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 CTP: Biggest challenge with the forecast today is the digging trough pressing down from the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday. The forecast is very consistent from run to run, and gives high confidence in a widespread (plowable) snowfall for the entire area. Did bump PoPs to 100s and SF numbers up just a little based on an upward trend in the SLRs and ensemble member trends. Even though it will be falling during the daylight hrs, it is a cold airmass and dewpoints start out pretty low. The SLRs should be higher than climo (12-14:1) and may be closer to 20:1 in the NW third of the area. We`re about 70% confident in the eventual need for an advy for almost all, if not all, of the CWA for late Thursday night and Friday. The place with the potential for the highest snowfall totals is going to be the Laurels, especially when lumping the snow which will occur after the main slug of forcing and broadest area of snow passes and upslope snow kicks in Fri night. Therefore, we`ve posted a winter storm watch for the Laurels for that time frame. However, we`d like to avoid some confusion and allow confidence to get to 80% before posting an advisory for the bulk of the area for Friday. The confusion may come for those who are going to get some snow later tonight (Wed PM) into Thurs. The certainty in SF numbers is lowest in the Ridge and Valley region (between UNV-MDT-IPT). Another shift or so with similar numbers should help boost confidence. With plenty of clouds around Thurs night and Fri, we`ll likely see a decreased diurnal swing. Mins in the 15-25F range are good, and everyone should hold in the 20s on Friday. One or two spots in the SErn valleys could get over 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 WWA hoisted by Mt Holly for Berks and Chester (and east) down this way for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Remember what model showed that earlier today...not him but.... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: ? The HRRR. It was showing the vort pass too far North for our liking and was risking a Miller B like transfer that would see our west moving snows dry up and turn into snow to our east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 ICON about the same as the NAM. Looks like 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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