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Central PA Winter 23/24


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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well we got a good bit of winter out of it whatever they are counting and more to come.

Sure, I was refencing the AN/BN totals at MDT for January.  The +5 right now is very high for this far into a month.   It is going to be knocked down some over the next 3-5 days but if we have a warm last week, the final numbers will be toasty. 

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6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well we got a good bit of winter out of it whatever they are counting and more to come.

and an upcoming period of neg departures to subtract from the "ugly".  Like you I'll enjoy the current winter and will worry about ugly later, and with a few beers, it may not look so bad after all...:). 

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btw, one of "our" guys is coming back from a break on the board.  I'll let you figure out who....

I promised him that most of the crap that's been going on recently seems to have subsided and that trolls seem to have crawled back into their caves.  Of course good "outsiders" ARE ALWAYS WELCOME. 

Hoping we keep it that way.  

 

Heres to HH not shartin the bed any further and keeping our 1-3 safely in play so we can all enjoy a winter weekend. 

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9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol

Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

IF that verifies, the only ones that wouldnt approve would be the plain clothes snowmobilers from Quarryville that were jackpotted this morning :lol:

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14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol

Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Radar presentation gives the appearance of a CCB and really emphasizes the coastal for those North/East of us. 

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CTP:

Biggest challenge with the forecast today is the digging trough
pressing down from the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday.
The forecast is very consistent from run to run, and gives high
confidence in a widespread (plowable) snowfall for the entire area.
Did bump PoPs to 100s and SF numbers up just a little based on an
upward trend in the SLRs and ensemble member trends. Even though it
will be falling during the daylight hrs, it is a cold airmass and
dewpoints start out pretty low. The SLRs should be higher than climo
(12-14:1) and may be closer to 20:1 in the NW third of the area.

We`re about 70% confident in the eventual need for an advy for
almost all, if not all, of the CWA for late Thursday night and
Friday. The place with the potential for the highest snowfall totals
is going to be the Laurels, especially when lumping the snow which
will occur after the main slug of forcing and broadest area of snow
passes and upslope snow kicks in Fri night. Therefore, we`ve posted
a winter storm watch for the Laurels for that time frame.

However, we`d like to avoid some confusion and allow confidence to
get to 80% before posting an advisory for the bulk of the area for
Friday. The confusion may come for those who are going to get some
snow later tonight (Wed PM) into Thurs. The certainty in SF numbers
is lowest in the Ridge and Valley region (between UNV-MDT-IPT).
Another shift or so with similar numbers should help boost
confidence.

With plenty of clouds around Thurs night and Fri, we`ll likely see a
decreased diurnal swing. Mins in the 15-25F range are good, and
everyone should hold in the 20s on Friday. One or two spots in the
SErn valleys could get over 30F
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