Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 40 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You may be right, but there's a lot of open field before you get to the quarry, which is what gives me some pause on that theory. I get that, and maybe it is just that it's the perfect little inversion spot. After doing some more digging, it looks as though the exact location of the climate station is right near the little creek bed in one of the lowest spots on the property so that could help explain some of it. The thing I struggle with is there are loads of relatively low-lying rural spots surrounded by miles of farmland and they don't get THAT cold. Heck, I drive through just such an example before I hop on the train in the mornings, and it is often 5+ degrees colder than my house but still doesn't reach THV levels. I did notice from some aerial overheads that part of the quarry and its surrounding dry land does butt up against pretty much the whole southern half of the runway. Just searching for something to explain the extremes ha. Who the heck knows. The only sure thing is I have spent WAY too much time thinking about this haha. Back to snow talk! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 If ever you wonder why I whine so much, keep this picture in your mind. Composite radar off the Nam. That hole with barely any echoes is literally right over my house and snowfall total map reflects it as well. Which begs the question...why did I stop drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like 2-3" Advisory snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 RGEM and Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Spacing/separation of NS/SS really has turned this into a strung out mess. Hoping that coastal doesnt rob us easters of more qpf than already being shown. Just somethin I'm "worrying" about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 CMC is no longer a GEM to look at as it depicts my last statement. Spacing too far and qpf responds. Snow maps went from 7-10 to 3" in last 3 runs. As I've always stated, looking for consensus/continuity, and not best snow map. Consensus is this looks too strung out. Just hoping we hang onto the 1-3" and that'll be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Quarryville plain clothes snowmobile crowd approves of this map. All i got for ya... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun. Even if that doesn't materialize you still have the MJO going into favorable phases once it gets out of phase 7. So there should be chances for all of us unlike last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Even if that doesn't materialize you still have the MJO going into favorable phases once it gets out of phase 7. So there should be chances for all of us unlike last year. Yep. It can overcome a lousy MJO sometimes too if it comes on our side, but hopefully we get the combo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun. I'm glad YOU brought it up, as when I've done it over they years, I get plenty of flack for discussing such weather voodo. Hoping your comments are better than mine. That lag time could work well w/ other tellies as we turn the page into our best month for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Even if that doesn't materialize you still have the MJO going into favorable phases once it gets out of phase 7. So there should be chances for all of us unlike last year. Yeah after we Jan thaw, it looks decent as of now. Lets hope momentum builds for a quick relax/reload. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 and lastly, if one looks at 2m temps (looking at GFS), it looks like we stay in 30's through mid next week. If you add 5 on, low 40's will feel nice for a few days, till we ease back into colder stuff into last week of Jan. As long as we keep the torches at bay...alright by me. Could get close a couple days, but it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and lastly, if one looks at 2m temps (looking at GFS), it looks like we stay in 30's through mid next week. If you add 5 on, low 40's will feel nice for a few days, till we ease back into colder stuff into last week of Jan. As long as we keep the torches at bay...alright by me. Could get close a couple days, but it happens. Doing think we see a couple days in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm glad YOU brought it up, as when I've done it over they years, I get plenty of flack for discussing such weather voodo. Hoping your comments are better than mine. That lag time could work well w/ other tellies as we turn the page into our best month for snow. SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Doing think we see a couple days in the 50s. yeah, we seem to overachieve wrt how well we warm, so I'd not want to wager any bets w/ you. While 850s start to warm about a week from now, 2m temps hold on a little longer to respond. The realist in me says that I'll take a week of white and be fine w/ a relax. I'd think many here would as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mitchnick said: SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho. Agreed pal. I'm guessing the numbers guys just look at the odds and say....meh. IF we keep the PNA + that could at least offset less than stellar looks from other tellies like NAO etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho. And predicting the results of the weather is what most of the science of met is all about IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The sun is mean. It’s 21 and blustery yet snow is melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I think 1-2" is probably the best call for Friday for the following reasons/factors as I see it: Total QPF Intensity of QPF falling Time of day that it's falling I just arrived at work - it was 20.1 at home when I left. When I walked out the front door, it sounded like a faucet was running. There is a lot of melting going on at 20 degrees. If temps on Friday are close to 30, snow will struggle to accumulate with light rates. Yards not so much, but streets may remain wet the entire day. To me, Friday seems to be falling squarely in the "nuisance" category for most. I am really excited for the end of the month into February. Me thinks we're going to have a lot of fun in the coming weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, canderson said: The sun is mean. It’s 21 and blustery yet snow is melting. Wow - I was working on my post and did not see this until after I posted mine. You are absolutely right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think 1-2" is probably the best call for Friday for the following reasons/factors as I see it: Total QPF Intensity of QPF falling Time of day that it's falling I just arrived at work - it was 20.1 at home when I left. When I walked out the front door, it sounded like a faucet was running. There is a lot of melting going on at 20 degrees. If temps on Friday are close to 30, snow will struggle to accumulate with light rates. Yards not so much, but streets may remain wet the entire day. To me, Friday seems to be falling squarely in the "nuisance" category for most. I am really excited for the end of the month into February. Me thinks we're going to have a lot of fun in the coming weeks. Some models have actually started Friday off as a bit of rain before the column cools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 24 minutes ago, canderson said: The sun is mean. It’s 21 and blustery yet snow is melting. We're at a peak in the solar cycle, which adds to the sun's heating efficiency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And predicting the results of the weather is what most of the science of met is all about IMHO. Yeah, but nobody's been able to figure out the results of SSW event. Any predictions are better labeled guesses. In any event, we'll know by the end of the month, give or take. Just wish we could "steal" an event between now and the end of the month, but I doubt we'll be that lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, but nobody's been able to figure out the results of SSW event. Any predictions are better labeled guesses. In any event, we'll know by the end of the month, give or take. Just wish we could "steal" an event between now and the end of the month, but I doubt we'll be that lucky. We are agreed, maybe I did not state it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun. 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho. 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, but nobody's been able to figure out the results of SSW event. Any predictions are better labeled guesses. In any event, we'll know by the end of the month, give or take. Just wish we could "steal" an event between now and the end of the month, but I doubt we'll be that lucky. 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We are agreed, maybe I did not state it right. Millersville's director of Met has been talking about the SSW for the past couple of weeks - Mitch, what you've said in these posts mirror his thoughts perfectly. While not a certainty, MU believes that colder, snowier weather is around the corner. The timeframe that you mention seems spot on with his thoughts as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 For the folks who don’t know, given the fluffy nature of the high ratio snow we received, the snow is more so sublimating than it is melting, given the current conditions. Just a note 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like EC is 1-3" for most of Eastern PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 56 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We're at a peak in the solar cycle, which adds to the sun's heating efficiency. and dont forget that for where its melting on the roads, there's this thingy called brine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 41 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: For the folks who don’t know, given the fluffy nature of the high ratio snow we received, the snow is more so sublimating than it is melting, given the current conditions. Just a note You're absolutely right, there has been a lot of sublimation going on. One of the curses of low water content snow. I'm also right - there is a lot of melting ongoing as well. The water running isn't a result of sublimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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