mahantango#1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That map there will send the snow lovers into a deep ,dark depression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mahantango#1 said: That map there will send the snow lovers into a deep ,dark depression. And it is a WB map to boot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And it is a WB map to boot! I just look at the QPF maps. I’m thinking about 12:1 SLR’s for this. 6z runs weren’t bad vs some of the 0z suite. I’ll take another 3” any day. Bar is 2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I just look at the QPF maps. I’m thinking about 12:1 SLR’s for this. 6z runs weren’t bad vs some of the 0z suite. I’ll take another 3” any day. Bar is 2” I think 1-3 is the best forecast right now but cannot quibble with 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And it is a WB map to boot! It’s also 10-1 …. Also, look around the different sub forums on here…. Many good long time respected posters use WB…including PSU, Cape etc… Let’s move on…. Bottom line, it’s going to snow again… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This morning's lows were the coldest since December 24, 2022 when we recorded 2.8 above here in East Nantmeal. Some area lows this AM. East Nantmeal (7.9) / Warwick Twp (7.4) / Kennett Square (9.1) / Lionville (10.9) / Elverson (10.6) / Chester Springs (11.0). It will be sunny but cold today with most spots struggling to reach the low to mid 20's. Clouds return tomorrow but dry and we will approach but likely not pass freezing in most areas. Snow chances increase again likely right after the AM rush on Friday into Friday night. Saturday looks to be the coldest day so far this season with temperatures not much above 20 degrees for afternoon highs. Records for today: High 65 (1973) / Low 13 below (1982) / Rain 1.83" (1994) / Snow 6.0" (1978) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Depending on where max area sets up, it's either a 1-3" or 2-4" event at this point. Wild card is how much interaction between departing coastal and u/l low. Rgem and Icon have precip getting sucked westward by the u/l, hence the 4-5" accumulations. Still need to wait to see what modeling consensus goes with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 degrees when I left the house this morning. Friday looks like a very similar event to the one we just experienced, i.e. a long duration light snowfall. Sign me up. Although, ratios weren't as great as I thought they'd be down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Depending on where max area sets up, it's either a 1-3" or 2-4" event at this point. Wild card is how much interaction between departing coastal and u/l low. Rgem and Icon have precip getting sucked westward by the u/l, hence the 4-5" accumulations. Still need to wait to see what modeling consensus goes with it. Great post…agreed… High upside of double digits is off the table, but a shut out is also off the table. Another solid Advisory event is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Depending on where max area sets up, it's either a 1-3" or 2-4" event at this point. Wild card is how much interaction between departing coastal and u/l low. Rgem and Icon have precip getting sucked westward by the u/l, hence the 4-5" accumulations. Still need to wait to see what modeling consensus goes with it. One thing we absolutely want to keep seeing is a great vort pass at h5. That coupled with a good jet interaction will help squeeze out good rates when snow is actually falling. Any interaction between the energies we can get will help produce the rgem/icon outcomes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s also 10-1 …. Also, look around the different sub forums on here…. Many good long time respected posters use WB…including PSU, Cape etc… Let’s move on…. Bottom line, it’s going to snow again… Face it, these 1-3, 2-4 aren't gonna cut it the rest of the winter. The snow lovers want to see several 12plus this season to fill their desire. But beggars can't be choosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Depending on where max area sets up, it's either a 1-3" or 2-4" event at this point. Wild card is how much interaction between departing coastal and u/l low. Rgem and Icon have precip getting sucked westward by the u/l, hence the 4-5" accumulations. Still need to wait to see what modeling consensus goes with. SE LSV and NE MA may benefit from that the most...if it comes to fruition. That is what the GFS keeps trying to sell. Highs near freezing on Friday (southern locales) would limit the ratios a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Festus said: 5 here at the moment. Lowest since January 2022. I saw a 2 between rothsville and lititz, and by the time I got my phone out to take a pic to share w/ y'all (yes while driving) it went up to 5. I didnt feel like turning around to search for the cold spot. On average 7-10 was seen on car thermo most of way into Etown. Just a beautiful winter morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, paweather said: Pretty Long duration of light snow event coming...Dawn to Dusk type. Thats what I'm focusing on, no matter what map shows what. Snow on snow is a win. Overnighters went to the look of the GFS concern that i posted yesterday. SS stays out in front and doesnt play w/ the NS, so its more strung out, and light mood kinda snows here. RGEM still is close enough and one we still wanna hug, but I'd also say that NAM'rs didnt look horrible at all. I was thinking 3-6 early call, and think that Blizz's 2-4 is better (4" is really pushin it but I'm not sure most would care if they got 3" instead of 4. Only us nerds fight over that stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 JB forecasting a President Day Blizzard lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: TT uses True SLR for the Icon which I read was an alternate to Kuch. It is not necessarily 10-1 and, in this case, does not match up with the qpf map if it were 10-1. Here is the Icon 10-1 on Pivotal. Much higher than TT with the point being gross differences between model sites snow maps is always a cause for confusion. WB is almost always higher than the rest for true snow situations. I wish this wasnt true, as I prefer TT over Pivotal (ease of use), but it has been discussed before, and there is more truth to this than not. algorithms are often a tad off w/ TT snow maps....and likely one of many reasons that @Itstrainingtimeloves to see them so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I just look at the QPF maps. I’m thinking about 12:1 SLR’s for this. 6z runs weren’t bad vs some of the 0z suite. I’ll take another 3” any day. Bar is 2” Great point. QPF maps are a safer bet when there are no precip issues. Easy to do the math w/ standard 10:1 ratios and use that as a baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Face it, these 1-3, 2-4 aren't gonna cut it the rest of the winter. The snow lovers want to see several 12plus this season to fill their desire. But beggars can't be choosy. actually i think most of us beggars are fine w/ these kinda events. Not stirring pot, but after the horrid winters of late coupled w/ the fact that historical odds are highly against 10-12" events....many know this, but of course, are always in search of it. 2-3" is a nice event to me, and if we can get that Friday, sign me up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Hey @mitchnick I see the topic of THV's coldness came up again last night. That, and the fact that it looks like they bottomed out at -1, led me to dig up this post I had a few months ago. Something to chew on. ..... You know, the THV site has always fascinated me. Outside of being a relatively low spot with some minor ridges around that make it conducive to cold air inversions, I think the main driver may be the large quarry and rocky terrain that exists adjacent to it. This lack of vegetation would make for a more arid airmass and allow temps to drop more at night than surrounding locales. This is the same phenomenon witnessed at the Barrens, which is just a few miles outside of State College but believed to be one of, if not THE, coldest micro-climates in the entire state. THV is obviously a much scaled-down version of that but I think that it may be a similar explanation. Food for thought. Anyway, those who want to read about the Barrens can do so here, a fascinating place indeed..... https://climate.met.psu.edu/features/barrens/ Edit: I see you actually liked the original post so perhaps it was unnecessary to rehash it haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 LR HRRR with a nice view of the initial energy scooting right under PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LR HRRR with a nice view of the energy scooting right under PA. Think I'd like it a little further south....50 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Hey @mitchnick I see the topic of THV's coldness came up gain last night. That, and the fact that it looks like they bottomed out at -1, led me to dig up this post I had a few months ago. Something to chew on. ..... You know, the THV site has always fascinated me. Outside of being a relatively low spot with some minor ridges around that make it conducive to cold air inversions, I think the main driver may be the large quarry and rocky terrain that exists adjacent to it. This lack of vegetation would make for a more arid airmass and allow temps to drop more at night than surrounding locales. This is the same phenomenon witnessed at the Barrens, which is just a few miles outside of State College but believed to be one of, if not THE, coldest micro-climates in the entire state. THV is obviously a much scaled-down version of that but I think that it may be a similar explanation. Food for thought. Anyway, those who want to read about the Barrens can do so here, a fascinating place indeed..... https://climate.met.psu.edu/features/barrens/ Edit: I see you actually liked the original post so perhaps it was unnecessary to rehash it haha. You may be right, but there's a lot of open field before you get to the quarry, which is what gives me some pause on that theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Think I'd like it a little further south....50 miles or so. I definitely would ala the 6Z Nam 3K. I dry slot with that look. But trying not to do IMBY talk too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Historically what is the most common event for snow in Pa.(1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8 etc.)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 My snowfall total for yesterday was 5” . Better than the 1-2” they was calling for. Single digit this morning, 8 degrees with some stray snow flurries. This week kind of reminds of the cutters events we used to get. 2-4” a couple times a week. It all adds up. Good snow blowing event yesterday. Stay warm and good luck with Friday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam 12 at 48. Not a ton of precip as shown. Not to the point of a full coastal influence yet so more to come. Fills in better at 51. Dry slot stays to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Some decent rates mid-day Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Historically what is the most common event for snow in Pa.(1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8 etc.)? I think it'd have to be 1-2 or 2-4. When clippers existed the state feasted on them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 was the low at my house. Even if we don't get any accumulations Friday, it snowing on/off all day will be nice and wintery. Any wintery vibes we get is a plus. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 54 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Hey @mitchnick I see the topic of THV's coldness came up again last night. That, and the fact that it looks like they bottomed out at -1, led me to dig up this post I had a few months ago. Something to chew on. ..... You know, the THV site has always fascinated me. Outside of being a relatively low spot with some minor ridges around that make it conducive to cold air inversions, I think the main driver may be the large quarry and rocky terrain that exists adjacent to it. This lack of vegetation would make for a more arid airmass and allow temps to drop more at night than surrounding locales. This is the same phenomenon witnessed at the Barrens, which is just a few miles outside of State College but believed to be one of, if not THE, coldest micro-climates in the entire state. THV is obviously a much scaled-down version of that but I think that it may be a similar explanation. Food for thought. Anyway, those who want to read about the Barrens can do so here, a fascinating place indeed..... https://climate.met.psu.edu/features/barrens/ Edit: I see you actually liked the original post so perhaps it was unnecessary to rehash it haha. During the January 1994 outbreak they managed to get a -36ºF out in the Barrens while the low temp on campus was -8ºF. It’s an ideal area to radiate on a calm, clear night.. especially with a snowpack. It’s also one of the better dark areas in C-PA for stargazing outside of the north-central once you get further outside of State College. I got some good pictures during the Geminid meteor shower in December on Tussey Ridge, one of the ridges that makes that valley. Saw hundreds of meteors the night I went up there. I don’t have any fancy cameras, this is just an iPhone pic 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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