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Central PA Winter 23/24


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9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yuck!

Whenever the ensemble mean is more than the operational, operational is probably too low. Not that there's a huge difference, but the ensemble mean is definitely better than operational using Pivotal. Weatherbell maps are always higher. 

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We might have a problem with atmospheric memory on Friday as in the heaviest stuff may fall to our south. You can see it in the Eps and Gfs that they want to jackpot the same area as today. Canadians favor PA. To early to say for certain. 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We might have a problem with atmospheric memory on Friday as in the heaviest stuff may fall to our south. You can see it in the Eps and Gfs that they want to jackpot the same area as today. Canadians favor PA. Too early to say for certain. 

Friday is a different set up than today. Also, most totals that I read for today’s event showed 4 inches or so in MD/DC, which was similar to what most had in our region today.

One more thing, Go Canada!

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Friday is a different set up than today. Also, most totals that I read for today’s event showed 4 inches or so in MD/DC, which was similar to what most had in our region today.

One more thing, Go Canada!

It wasn't that much more, but most of MD definitely got more than we did today - shoot, even DCA came in at 4.1". BWI was just under 5". Most of the LSV was between 2 and 4". I'd say on average, most spots down there got about 1 - 1.5" more than most of us. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It wasn't that much more, but most of MD definitely got more than we did today - shoot, even DCA came in at 4.1". BWI was just under 5". Most of the LSV was between 2 and 4". I'd say on average, most spots down there got about 1 - 1.5" more than most of us. 

Lol, it’s not like MD had 10 & we got 4….

I’m pretty sure that most people would call 3 & 4 “close” … Lol!

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the GFS on pivotal.   Hard to keep track of what is what with the model sites being off by 25% or more from other sites.  

image.thumb.png.424782e8d0975644596b30e04c9ba42d.png

 

Lol, every map in every format from every website has us getting an average of 3 inches.

Some runs will show a little more & some a little less, but at this point it’s safe to say another Advisory event of 2 to 4 is on the way.

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, every map in every format from every website has us getting an average of 3 inches.

Some runs will show a little more & some a little less, but at this point it’s safe to say another Advisory event of 2 to 4 is on the way.

Don't look at TT then.  It has you getting 1"-2" on the Icon and 2" on the Nam 12.  Not advocating TT's maps but not every map on every site.  1-3 or 2-4 seems prudent.  

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Don't look at TT then.  It has you getting 1"-2" on the Icon and 2" on the Nam 12.  Not advocating TT's maps but not every map on every site.  1-3 or 2-4 seems prudent.  

TT only has 10-1….

This is a good ratio storm.

Kuchera ratio at minimum is the way to go to account for ratio potential.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

TT only has 10-1….

This is a good ratio storm.

Kuchera ratio at minimum is the way to go to account for ratio potential.

TT uses True SLR for the Icon which I read was an alternate to Kuch.    It is not necessarily 10-1 and, in this case, does not match up with the qpf map if it were 10-1.  Here is the Icon 10-1 on Pivotal.  Much higher than TT with the point being gross differences between model sites snow maps is always a cause for confusion.  WB is almost always higher than the rest for true snow situations.  

image.png.ee4dc4d99211ee36281c2c9b7ca38a8b.png

 

 

 

 

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