Superstorm Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Best dynamics will be further east so that may explain lower totals in western sections of LSV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Plenty of guidance has consistently showed at least 1 to 3 inches of snow-both snow depth & Kuchera maps- for the LSV over the last couple of days. The small differences in amounts are just noise at this point. Hoping the EE is the right. My view of the snow maps is a signal for elevation dependance. The new HRRR really has that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Late nooners from Mayfair in London - 51 and pouring rain. Weather is so bad a lot if the train network is down including every line to and from Heathrow. That was a bumpy flight across the Atlantic and the mod turbulence as we flew through the L pressure center. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Rain should be spreading in from the west by late this morning. The models still show a transition to snow from west to east across the area before dawn tomorrow. Both the NAM and the NWS are focused on the higher elevations here in Western Chester, Western Montgomery and Berks Counties for the best chance of an accumulation. Both the NAM and GFS are model in the 3" to 4" amounts for these areas. However, the NWS has only up to 1" possible in these areas. The limiting factor will be temperatures which should remain above freezing in all areas so while I am sure there will be some accumulation where it does snow on unpaved surfaces...unless the rates are heavy enough any issues on the road look slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Feel real good for a pasting up here sitting at 1400' feet north of Scranton. BGM really hitting elevation. ELK Mountain in the crosshairs! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 NAM’s pull the football from many folks, not surprised. What an epic snow drought we’re in. Can’t wait to watch through this winter to see how the niño fails to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Summit Snow said: Feel real good for a pasting up here sitting at 1400' feet north of Scranton. BGM really hitting elevation. ELK Mountain in the crosshairs! Hello, are you in the Clarks Summit area? I’m to your east/southeast near Newfoundland Pa, Wayne county. Really liking my spot on the northern Pocono Plateau at 2,075’ feet for this. Binghamton NWS has a WWA up for 3 to 5. This absolutely looks heavily elevation dependent, with elevations changing over first late this evening and obviously having the best opportunity to accumulate. Elk Mountain is always in a great spot, highest elevation in Nepa and great Latitude/Longitude as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Nams have weaker s/w so everything gets pulled east since you're not getting as strong a mechanism throwing moisture back into the cold. 6z Euro was similar but not as dramatic as Nams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nams have weaker s/w so everything gets pulled east since you're not getting as strong a mechanism throwing moisture back into the cold. 6z Euro was similar but not as dramatic as Nams. It also seemed to be faster/further N at the same intervals in comparison to previous runs. Either way it is too warm at the surface out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It also seemed to be faster/further N at the same intervals in comparison to previous runs. Either way it is too warm at the surface out this way. Yeah, the best runs had the 5h vort sharper and holding it back but now move it out and up faster. Maddening how all the money/research toward model performance still can't get them better 24-48 hours out. Everything becomes a nowcast, or so it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, mitchnick said: Yeah, the best runs had the 5h vort sharper and holding it back but now move it out and up faster. Maddening how all the money/research toward model performance still can't get them better 24-48 hours out. Everything becomes a nowcast, or so it seems. Totally agreed. Seeing so many suites not showing wide scale accum snow this AM really made me hold back enthusiasm. So now we have several mesos with minor bullseyes in Lanco and/or south York. Do we settle there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Totally agreed. Seeing so many suites not showing wide scale accum snow this AM really made me hold back enthusiasm. So now we have several mesos with minor bullseyes in Lanco and/or south York. Do we settle there? Don't know. We can't forget, however, how bad the Nams can be. 12z HRRR didn't look as bad as the Nams at all. Fwiw, 6z Eps cut back on totals but didn't kill totals out west like the Nams. Eps attached. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 A forecast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 One other thing no one, me included, has mentioned. Neither Canadian model nor the Ukie have had anything more than snow tv. I mean nothing outside of 1500'+. So if they win, we'll know better if there is a next time before the end of the world occurs when Taylor Swift dumps Kelce. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Break in the rain here. Temp has jumped to 55. Getting close to 60 in southern Lanco. 12Z GFS has that same Southern York or Lanco bullseye seen in several mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Hello everyone, new to this forum, located in MT Top, Pa elev around 1700 ft; so far sounds good here; just for info NWS has a wwa for 4-6 inches and valley 1-3 inches, time will tell. Hope all have a great winter. Patience I'm sure will be needed for us all. Maps will change, computers are not perfect, I learned that many years ago. I'm giving away my age, probably older than most here. Good luck all. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, mitchnick said: One other thing no one, me included, has mentioned. Neither Canadian model nor the Ukie have had anything more than snow tv. I mean nothing outside of 1500'+. So if they win, we'll know better if there is a next time before the end of the world occurs when Taylor Swift dumps Kelce. Rumor has it that she wanted me, since she grew up in Reading which isn't far from Tamaqua. She gave up when I moved to Arizona, so she settled for Travis... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Summit Snow said: Feel real good for a pasting up here sitting at 1400' feet north of Scranton. BGM really hitting elevation. ELK Mountain in the crosshairs! Yeah Elk is in a great spot for this. But then again, Elk is often in a great spot for snow ha. The hidden gem of PA. I still haven’t made it there for a ski trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said: Hello, are you in the Clarks Summit area? I’m to your east/southeast near Newfoundland Pa, Wayne county. Really liking my spot on the northern Pocono Plateau at 2,075’ feet for this. Binghamton NWS has a WWA up for 3 to 5. This absolutely looks heavily elevation dependent, with elevations changing over first late this evening and obviously having the best opportunity to accumulate. Elk Mountain is always in a great spot, highest elevation in Nepa and great Latitude/Longitude as well! Yes-Waverly/Clarks Green just under 1500'. WWA just issued by BGM for 3-6" for elevations around Scranton. You might be looking at 7"+ based on trends of faster changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 80/67 at noon. Front comes through here tonight into tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Nooner 55 and approaching .4” of rain. Was stuck at 49 most of the morning but temp spiking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Nooner 55 and approaching .4” of rain. Was stuck at 49 most of the morning but temp spiking now. Where's our 2" of rain?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066-111615- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Rain will change to wet snow tonight with a coating to 1 inch of accumulation possible into the Monday morning commute. The snow could result in locally hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges and overpasses. The ridge tops could see up to 2 inches by late Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066-111615- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Rain will change to wet snow tonight with a coating to 1 inch of accumulation possible into the Monday morning commute. The snow could result in locally hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges and overpasses. The ridge tops could see up to 2 inches by late Monday morning. CTP has weighed in… Up to 2 inches of snow seems reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP has weighed in… Up to 2 inches of snow seems reasonable at this point. 3k NAM agrees with CTP for the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 A little late for ensembles, but the 12z GFS is a good representation for the possibilities depending on the the best bands set up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Summit Snow said: Yes-Waverly/Clarks Green just under 1500'. WWA just issued by BGM for 3-6" for elevations around Scranton. You might be looking at 7"+ based on trends of faster changeover. Ohh very cool, nice to see a poster relatively closeby! Yeah looks like a nowcast for us this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Late nooners....sun poking out and 58. Time to get chores done before the next round arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, NEPA MT TOP said: Hello everyone, new to this forum, located in MT Top, Pa elev around 1700 ft; so far sounds good here; just for info NWS has a wwa for 4-6 inches and valley 1-3 inches, time will tell. Hope all have a great winter. Patience I'm sure will be needed for us all. Maps will change, computers are not perfect, I learned that many years ago. I'm giving away my age, probably older than most here. Good luck all. I don't like you already, even though I really should have given you a chance since my father was from W-B and my mother from Plains. Lemme think about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Well my friend being 67 years old I've seen many great snowstorms and winters; and been so disappointed in just as many misses and lousy winters. So many memories. I'm sure we'll get along fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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