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Central PA Winter 23/24


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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Plenty of guidance has consistently showed at least 1 to 3 inches of snow-both snow depth & Kuchera maps- for the LSV over the last couple of days. 

The small differences in amounts are just noise at this point.

Hoping the EE is the right.   My view of the snow maps is a signal for elevation dependance.   The new HRRR really has that look. 

image.thumb.png.8c62a648ccddc4932540f7622fe0b38d.png

 

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Rain should be spreading in from the west by late this morning. The models still show a transition to snow from west to east across the area before dawn tomorrow. Both the NAM and the NWS are focused on the higher elevations here in Western Chester, Western Montgomery and Berks Counties for the best chance of an accumulation. Both the NAM and GFS are model in the 3" to 4" amounts for these areas. However, the NWS has only up to 1" possible in these areas. The limiting factor will be temperatures which should remain above freezing in all areas so while I am sure there will be some accumulation where it does snow on unpaved surfaces...unless the rates are heavy enough any issues on the road look slight.image.thumb.png.80889c350f524386a26acab23e17f187.pngimage.thumb.png.7026315693b14927aa4e09c927f415eb.png

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2 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Feel real good for a pasting up here sitting at 1400' feet north of Scranton. BGM really hitting elevation. ELK Mountain in the crosshairs!

 

Hello, are you in the Clarks Summit area?  I’m to your east/southeast near Newfoundland Pa, Wayne county. Really liking my spot on the northern Pocono Plateau at 2,075’ feet for this. Binghamton NWS has a WWA up for 3 to 5. This absolutely looks heavily elevation dependent, with elevations changing over first late this evening and obviously having the best opportunity to accumulate.  Elk Mountain is always in a great spot, highest elevation in Nepa and great Latitude/Longitude as well! 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nams have weaker s/w so everything gets pulled east since you're not getting as strong a mechanism throwing moisture back into the cold. 6z Euro was similar but not as dramatic as Nams. 

It also seemed to be faster/further N at the same intervals in comparison to previous runs.   Either way it is too warm at the surface out this way.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It also seemed to be faster/further N at the same intervals in comparison to previous runs.   Either way it is too warm at the surface out this way.

Yeah, the best runs had the 5h vort sharper and holding it back but now move it out and up faster. Maddening how all the money/research toward model performance still can't get them better 24-48 hours out. Everything becomes a nowcast, or so it seems.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Yeah, the best runs had the 5h vort sharper and holding it back but now move it out and up faster. Maddening how all the money/research toward model performance still can't get them better 24-48 hours out. Everything becomes a nowcast, or so it seems.

Totally agreed.  Seeing so many suites not showing wide scale accum snow this AM really made me hold back enthusiasm.  

So now we have several mesos with minor bullseyes in Lanco and/or south York.   Do we settle there? 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Totally agreed.  Seeing so many suites not showing wide scale accum snow this AM really made me hold back enthusiasm.  

So now we have several mesos with minor bullseyes in Lanco and/or south York.   Do we settle there? 

Don't know. We can't forget, however, how bad the Nams can be. 12z HRRR didn't look as bad as the Nams at all. Fwiw, 6z Eps cut back on totals but didn't kill totals out west like the Nams. Eps attached. 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_state_de_md (2).png

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One other thing no one, me included, has mentioned. Neither Canadian model nor the Ukie have had anything more than snow tv. I mean nothing outside of 1500'+. So if they win, we'll know better if there is a next time before the end of the world occurs when Taylor Swift dumps Kelce.

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Hello everyone, new to this forum, located in MT Top, Pa elev around 1700 ft; so far sounds good here; just for info NWS has a wwa for 4-6 inches and valley 1-3 inches, time will tell. Hope all have a great winter. Patience I'm sure will be needed for us all. Maps will change, computers are not perfect, I learned that many years ago. I'm giving away my age, probably older than most here.  Good luck all.

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44 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

One other thing no one, me included, has mentioned. Neither Canadian model nor the Ukie have had anything more than snow tv. I mean nothing outside of 1500'+. So if they win, we'll know better if there is a next time before the end of the world occurs when Taylor Swift dumps Kelce.

Rumor has it that she wanted me, since she grew up in Reading which isn't far from Tamaqua. She gave up when I moved to Arizona, so she settled for Travis...

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2 hours ago, Summit Snow said:

Feel real good for a pasting up here sitting at 1400' feet north of Scranton. BGM really hitting elevation. ELK Mountain in the crosshairs!

 

Yeah Elk is in a great spot for this. But then again, Elk is often in a great spot for snow ha. The hidden gem of PA. I still haven’t made it there for a ski trip. 

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2 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said:

Hello, are you in the Clarks Summit area?  I’m to your east/southeast near Newfoundland Pa, Wayne county. Really liking my spot on the northern Pocono Plateau at 2,075’ feet for this. Binghamton NWS has a WWA up for 3 to 5. This absolutely looks heavily elevation dependent, with elevations changing over first late this evening and obviously having the best opportunity to accumulate.  Elk Mountain is always in a great spot, highest elevation in Nepa and great Latitude/Longitude as well! 

Yes-Waverly/Clarks Green just under 1500'. WWA just issued by BGM for 3-6" for elevations around Scranton.  You might be looking at 7"+ based on trends of faster changeover.

 

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066-111615-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain will change to wet snow tonight with a coating to 1 inch of
accumulation possible into the Monday morning commute. The snow could
result in locally hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges
and overpasses. The ridge tops could see up to 2 inches by late
Monday morning.
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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066-111615-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain will change to wet snow tonight with a coating to 1 inch of
accumulation possible into the Monday morning commute. The snow could
result in locally hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges
and overpasses. The ridge tops could see up to 2 inches by late
Monday morning.

CTP has weighed in…

Up to 2 inches of snow seems reasonable at this point.

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1 hour ago, Summit Snow said:

Yes-Waverly/Clarks Green just under 1500'. WWA just issued by BGM for 3-6" for elevations around Scranton.  You might be looking at 7"+ based on trends of faster changeover.

 

Ohh very cool, nice to see a poster relatively closeby! Yeah looks like a nowcast for us this evening! 

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1 hour ago, NEPA MT TOP said:

Hello everyone, new to this forum, located in MT Top, Pa elev around 1700 ft; so far sounds good here; just for info NWS has a wwa for 4-6 inches and valley 1-3 inches, time will tell. Hope all have a great winter. Patience I'm sure will be needed for us all. Maps will change, computers are not perfect, I learned that many years ago. I'm giving away my age, probably older than most here.  Good luck all.

I don't like you already, even though I  really should have given you a chance since my father was from W-B and my mother from Plains. Lemme think about it...;)

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