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Central PA Winter 23/24


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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I don’t mind seeing those higher totals on the 18z GFS just over the border in MD…right where we want it….

IMG_4426.png

Nam's northward push at 18z is typical for the Nam as I found out the hard way last weekend.  I'll be surprised if it backs down at 0z and equally surprised if other guidance doesn't also tick north closer to the Nam. That model has a knack of sniffing out warm pushes.

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When I die, I’m going to will the Cowboys to be my pallbearers so they can let me down one final time.
You definitely will have new coach next year. I guess prey Jerry dies and you can fire sale under new ownership who won't middle?

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41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam's northward push at 18z is typical for the Nam as I found out the hard way last weekend.  I'll be surprised if it backs down at 0z and equally surprised if other guidance doesn't also tick north closer to the Nam. That model has a knack of sniffing out warm pushes.

I just want in the good precip & it’s cold enough this time for snow, with good ratios.

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CTP says 15 or 20:1 ratios. That’s the good stuff. 
I'm excited. This week has potential to finally feel like a true week of deep winter with two moderate threats within 4 days and cold temps. It's been years since we could say that.

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27 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Because I don’t like the Cowboys? Hate to break it to you, but it’s pretty common in this part of the world.

Personally, as someone who also doesn't like Dallas...I won't bad mouth them, or any other team for that matter. Yeah I know a lot of people do, but I just don't think it's a good look to make hateful comments. "Go to hell" seems unnecessary to me but I guess I'm in the minority here. I'd prefer to keep things more respectful and I've earned respect over time for it.

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Personally, as someone who also doesn't like Dallas...I won't bad mouth them, or any other team for that matter. Yeah I know a lot of people do, but I just don't think it's a good look to make hateful comments. "Go to hell" seems unnecessary to me but I guess I'm in the minority here. I'd prefer to keep things more respectful and I've earned respect over time for it.

It was probably a little over the top. I’m just annoyed by Cowboys fans. Period. Can’t help it. I agree with you though, that we should keep things more respectful here. I guess I never think twice about that when it involves the Cowboys haha.
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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Personally, as someone who also doesn't like Dallas...I won't bad mouth them, or any other team for that matter. Yeah I know a lot of people do, but I just don't think it's a good look to make hateful comments. "Go to hell" seems unnecessary to me but I guess I'm in the minority here. I'd prefer to keep things more respectful and I've earned respect over time for it.

It is not like the Cowboys fans here mock other teams.  Not sure why respect cannot rule the day. The Cowboys have not won anything meaningful since 1996.  

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is not like the Cowboys fans here mock other teams.  Not sure why respect cannot rule the day. The Cowboys have not won anything meaningful since 1996.  

I am missing the Steelers game tomorrow.

Why? I'm teaching classes on...

Respectfulness. 

Sadly, it's disappearing. I see evidence of that every day, in every walk of life. 

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43 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP says 15 or 20:1 ratios. That’s the good stuff. 

Good CTP discussion & those ratios are sweet!

“Increasing fgen forcing and favorable upper jet dynamics downstream of mid level trough digging through the Ohio Valley
and developing low pressure off the East Coast is expected to
produce a broad area of light snow across CPA Monday night into
Tuesday. Ensemble data shows the highest probs (>50% chance) for 2+ inches over the southeast zones. We have general 1-3"forecast over most of the area, with the lowest amounts over the
northern tier where surface ridging and dry air may limit the
snowfall. A winter wx advisory may be needed for the lower Susquehanna Valley with 2" of snow. The character of the snow
will be dry and fluffy with SLRs mainly in the 15-20:1 range.

Light snow is forecast to pull to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and end by Tuesday evening. Another shot of arctic air will invade Tuesday night with min wind chills getting very
close to -15F criteria over the Alleghenies. Most places will
experience wind chills between 0 and -15F Wednesday morning.”
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Increasing fgen forcing and favorable upper jet dynamics downstream of mid level trough digging through the Ohio Valleyand developing low pressure off the East Coast is expected toproduce a broad area of light snow across CPA Monday night intoTuesday. Ensemble data shows the highest probs (>50% chance) for 2+ inches over the southeast zones. We have general 1-3"forecast over most of the area, with the lowest amounts over thenorthern tier where surface ridging and dry air may limit thesnowfall. A winter wx advisory may be needed for the lower Susquehanna Valley with 2" of snow. The character of the snowwill be dry and fluffy with SLRs mainly in the 15-20:1 range.Light snow is forecast to pull to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and end by Tuesday evening. Another shot of arctic air will invade Tuesday night with min wind chills getting veryclose to -15F criteria over the Alleghenies. Most places willexperience wind chills between 0 and -15F Wednesday morning.

I'm going to place a bet on overachiever. We are going to do 3-6" instead of 1-3"

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This is the type of system that could overachieve with cold air in place & moisture approaching from the south.
My gut says yes. It likes these systems everyone forgets about because of their go big or go home bias. Some of our best years are built on these.

Sometimes it feels like people take any snowfall year not in top10 all time as a failure and sign of doom

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You can expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued tomorrow for the upcoming snow event.

Snow will spread into the region late tomorrow night and continue into Tuesday morning.
It's going to be light fluffy snow that will accumulate quickly.
We're looking at a general 3-5 inches of snow across the region. 
Tuesday morning commute will likely be tricky so please plan accordingly.

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

You can expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued tomorrow for the upcoming snow event.

Snow will spread into the region late tomorrow night and continue into Tuesday morning.
It's going to be light fluffy snow that will accumulate quickly.
We're looking at a general 3-5 inches of snow across the region. 
Tuesday morning commute will likely be tricky so please plan accordingly.

Whose forecast is this?

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