mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 This is the type of event that crushed my weenie heart back in MD. Not that the HRRR snowfall map is perfect imby with this, because it isn't, but I guarantee you it's right for BWI with literally no accumulations while 10 minutes west on the Baltimore beltway it drops 3". Ughh, I feel for my old neighbor who was a snow weenie like the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This is the type of event that crushed my weenie heart back in MD. Not that the HRRR snowfall map is perfect imby with this, because it isn't, but I guarantee you it's right for BWI with literally no accumulations while 10 minutes west on the Baltimore beltway it drops 3". Ughh, I feel for my old neighbor who was a snow weenie like the rest of us. And then there's the Nam. Me and my bleeding heart. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 3k isn't finished, but it's a crushing for many AND I95. Wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 3k isn't finished, but it's a crushing for many AND I95. Wowzers. 3k is an LSV crush job. 988 off of NJ Kuchera ratio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 3k is an LSV crush job. 988 off of NJ Kuchera ratio Pivotal not as generous with Kuchera totals as WB. Big hit for LSV regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Thats quite the turn of events if it verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 3k is an LSV crush job. 988 off of NJ Kuchera ratioI would be so happy to take 3"-5" instead of 6"-10" on the west shore and start a parade. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Nams definitely getting colder too. When the mod to heavy snow is falling on both Nams imby, temp drops from 33 to 32. At night, regardless of what the high is tomorrow, that snow falling at night at those temps will accumulate at close to typical ratios. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 0z GFS is on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS is on board 997 off of NJ Kuchera ratio I think the LSV is in a good spot for this event. Guidance is converging on a consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 So ive been dealing with stuff all day last time I saw late last night local abc27 was calling for 48 as a high and rain till lunch time. just checked at 6pm they are calling for 47 for a monday said we get to near 50 after the storm ends as some wet snow no accumulation and to warm to lay. So guess big changes? teen again they were also calling for aa high near 50 today and we got to 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 6z NAMs are still looking good for the rain changing to snow overnight. LSV is in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z NAMs are still looking good for the rain changing to snow overnight. LSV is in a great spot. Kuchera 6z NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Looks like CTP caught on to the models increasing the snow totals. Verbatim, the Tamaqua forecast went from a half to one inch to a possible 2-4 inch finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, Voyager said: Looks like CTP caught on to the models increasing the snow totals. Verbatim, the Tamaqua forecast went from a half to one inch to a possible 2-4 inch finish. They cut me back! From "up to" a half an inch or less both Sunday night and Monday morning to just Sunday night. Not 1 model is anywhere near that paultry here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They cut me back! From "up to" a half an inch or less both Sunday night and Monday morning to just Sunday night. Not 1 model is anywhere near that paultry here. Lol Interesting... I know anyone can click and get the forecast, but this is where they went with Tamaqua on the point and click. It had been a half inch Sunday night and a half inch Monday morning. Tonight Rain before 1am, then rain and snow. Low around 32. Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Rain and snow before 10am, then a slight chance of snow between 10am and noon. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Interesting... I know anyone can click and get the forecast, but this is where they went with Tamaqua on the point and click. It had been a half inch Sunday night and a half inch Monday morning. Tonight Rain before 1am, then rain and snow. Low around 32. Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Rain and snow before 10am, then a slight chance of snow between 10am and noon. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. If modeling holds thru the 12z suite, I'm sure they'll update me, not that I rely on NWS forecasts at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If modeling holds thru the 12z suite, I'm sure they'll update me, not that I rely on NWS forecasts at all. We'll see I guess. The higher totals may verify up north of Tamaqua (Hometown and beyond) due to the higher elevation than the borough proper. Many times, we get little if any accumulation, then a mile north on 309 and up the hill in Hometown, there's a slushy inch or two. Then after you climb up to McAdoo and Hazleton, you get into more serious accumulations. It can be a totally different world up there in a marginal situation. It'll be 28-30 degrees and snowing like a bastard up there, and 35 with mixed precip in Tamaqua. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: We'll see I guess. The higher totals may verify up north of Tamaqua (Hometown and beyond) due to the higher elevation than the borough proper. Many times, we get little if any accumulation, then a mile north on 309 and up the hill in Hometown, there's a slushy inch or two. Then after you climb up to McAdoo and Hazleton, you get into more serious accumulations. It can be a totally different world up there in a marginal situation. It'll be 28-30 degrees and snowing like a bastard up there, and 35 with mixed precip in Tamaqua. Well, my post was based on what modeling is consistently spitting out imby. Absolutely agree this is a classic elevation favored event, but modeling has me at 32-33 during snowfall. At night, that's cold enough for periods of 10:1 accumulations provided dendrite growth is cooperating up above. But as I said, I was never one to be concerned about the NWS forecasts. When I lived in MD for the first 61 years of my life, LWX almost always played catchup when it came to snow, so I lost interest in their forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Well, my post was based on what modeling is consistently spitting out imby. Absolutely agree this is a classic elevation favored event, but modeling has me at 32-33 during snowfall. At night, that's cold enough for periods of 10:1 accumulations provided dendrite growth is cooperating up above. But as I said, I was never one to be concerned about the NWS forecasts. When I lived in MD for the first 61 years of my life, LWX almost always played catchup when it came to snow, so I lost interest in their forecasts. Oh yeah, I get it. Wasn't calling you out. As for the NWS playing catch up, CTP is/was the same way. They've almost always played conservative with totals up almost to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 well I dunno what this says but my forecast high today went from 61 forecast for fri down to 55 yester now todays high is set to be 51. it got a few degrees colder last night then forecasted but its all rdy up to 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 45 minutes ago, Voyager said: We'll see I guess. The higher totals may verify up north of Tamaqua (Hometown and beyond) due to the higher elevation than the borough proper. Many times, we get little if any accumulation, then a mile north on 309 and up the hill in Hometown, there's a slushy inch or two. Then after you climb up to McAdoo and Hazleton, you get into more serious accumulations. It can be a totally different world up there in a marginal situation. It'll be 28-30 degrees and snowing like a bastard up there, and 35 with mixed precip in Tamaqua. Tell the truth...you miss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, Voyager said: Oh yeah, I get it. Wasn't calling you out. As for the NWS playing catch up, CTP is/was the same way. They've almost always played conservative with totals up almost to game time. I think we should grade the NWS-State College on winter event. Starting on this one today. Just to see how they fare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Tell the truth...you miss that. I agree that I miss "the chase" as in tracking an event until it verifies (or not). I don't miss the aftermath of digging out, cleaning cars, driving a semi in the snow, freezing my ass off, etc. Tracking from afar, without having to actually deal with work and stress of the storms outcome, is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 48 and wet here this AM. Still torn on the snow as a lot of suites, both global and not, are just elevation accums out this way.... and above my elevation in the 800's. Surprised to see the large deviations this close. The NAM replacement is nothing for most of PA (Fv3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 48 and wet here this AM. Still torn on the snow as a lot of suites, both global and not, are just elevation accums out this way.... and above my elevation in the 800's. Surprised to see the large deviations this close. The NAM replacement is nothing for most of PA (Fv3). What about the other NAM’s? the GFS? The Euro? All of those show a couple inches out our way. The FV3 is not operational, and may never be. It’s another piece of guidance, and it could be right…I’m just saying that there’s plenty of guidance that gives us accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: What about the other NAM’s? the GFS? The Euro? All of those show a couple inches out our way. The FV3 is not operational, and may never be. It’s another piece of guidance, and it could be right…I’m just saying that there’s plenty of guidance that gives us accumulations. The GFS does not show a couple inches anywhere in the LSV on most models sites. Neither does the RGEM and some of the other mesos. (Not on Kuch at least.) The Fv3 is targeted to be the replacement this time next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Plenty of guidance has consistently showed at least 1 to 3 inches of snow-both snow depth & Kuchera maps- for the LSV over the last couple of days. The small differences in amounts are just noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Best dynamics will be further east so that may explain lower totals in western sections of LSV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Best dynamics will be further east so that may explain lower totals in western sections of LSV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now