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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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This is the type of event that crushed my weenie heart back in MD. Not that the HRRR snowfall map is perfect imby with this, because it isn't, but I  guarantee you it's right for BWI with literally no accumulations while 10 minutes west on the Baltimore beltway it drops 3". Ughh, I feel for my old neighbor who was a snow weenie like the rest of us. 

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18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is the type of event that crushed my weenie heart back in MD. Not that the HRRR snowfall map is perfect imby with this, because it isn't, but I  guarantee you it's right for BWI with literally no accumulations while 10 minutes west on the Baltimore beltway it drops 3". Ughh, I feel for my old neighbor who was a snow weenie like the rest of us. 

And then there's the Nam. Me and my bleeding heart. Lol

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_de_md (9).png

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So ive been dealing with stuff all day last time I saw late last night local abc27 was calling for 48 as a high and rain till lunch time.  just checked at 6pm they are calling for 47 for a monday said we get to near 50 after the storm ends as some wet snow no accumulation and to warm to lay. So guess big changes? teen again they were also calling for aa high near 50 today and we got to 42

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25 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Looks like CTP caught on to the models increasing the snow totals. Verbatim, the Tamaqua forecast went from a half to one inch to a possible 2-4 inch finish.

They cut me back! From "up to" a half an inch or less both Sunday night and Monday morning to just Sunday night. Not 1 model is anywhere near that paultry here. Lol

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19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They cut me back! From "up to" a half an inch or less both Sunday night and Monday morning to just Sunday night. Not 1 model is anywhere near that paultry here. Lol

Interesting...

I know anyone can click and get the forecast, but this is where they went with Tamaqua on the point and click. It had been a half inch Sunday night and a half inch Monday morning.

Tonight
Rain before 1am, then rain and snow. Low around 32. Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Monday
Rain and snow before 10am, then a slight chance of snow between 10am and noon. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Interesting...

I know anyone can click and get the forecast, but this is where they went with Tamaqua on the point and click. It had been a half inch Sunday night and a half inch Monday morning.

Tonight
Rain before 1am, then rain and snow. Low around 32. Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Monday
Rain and snow before 10am, then a slight chance of snow between 10am and noon. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

If modeling holds thru the 12z suite, I'm sure they'll update me, not that I  rely on NWS forecasts at all.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If modeling holds thru the 12z suite, I'm sure they'll update me, not that I  rely on NWS forecasts at all.

We'll see I guess. The higher totals may verify up north of Tamaqua (Hometown and beyond) due to the higher elevation than the borough proper. Many times, we get little if any accumulation, then a mile north on 309 and up the hill in Hometown, there's a slushy inch or two. Then after you climb up to McAdoo and Hazleton, you get into more serious accumulations.

It can be a totally different world up there in a marginal situation. It'll be 28-30 degrees and snowing like a bastard up there, and 35 with mixed precip in Tamaqua.

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

We'll see I guess. The higher totals may verify up north of Tamaqua (Hometown and beyond) due to the higher elevation than the borough proper. Many times, we get little if any accumulation, then a mile north on 309 and up the hill in Hometown, there's a slushy inch or two. Then after you climb up to McAdoo and Hazleton, you get into more serious accumulations.

It can be a totally different world up there in a marginal situation. It'll be 28-30 degrees and snowing like a bastard up there, and 35 with mixed precip in Tamaqua.

Well, my post was based on what modeling is consistently spitting out imby. Absolutely agree this is a classic elevation favored event, but modeling has me at 32-33 during snowfall. At night, that's cold enough for periods of 10:1 accumulations provided dendrite growth is cooperating up above. But as I said, I  was never one to be concerned about the NWS forecasts. When I  lived in MD for the first 61 years of my life, LWX almost always played catchup when it came to snow, so I  lost interest in their forecasts. 

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14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, my post was based on what modeling is consistently spitting out imby. Absolutely agree this is a classic elevation favored event, but modeling has me at 32-33 during snowfall. At night, that's cold enough for periods of 10:1 accumulations provided dendrite growth is cooperating up above. But as I said, I  was never one to be concerned about the NWS forecasts. When I  lived in MD for the first 61 years of my life, LWX almost always played catchup when it came to snow, so I  lost interest in their forecasts. 

Oh yeah, I get it. Wasn't calling you out. As for the NWS playing catch up, CTP is/was the same way. They've almost always played conservative with totals up almost to game time.

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45 minutes ago, Voyager said:

We'll see I guess. The higher totals may verify up north of Tamaqua (Hometown and beyond) due to the higher elevation than the borough proper. Many times, we get little if any accumulation, then a mile north on 309 and up the hill in Hometown, there's a slushy inch or two. Then after you climb up to McAdoo and Hazleton, you get into more serious accumulations.

It can be a totally different world up there in a marginal situation. It'll be 28-30 degrees and snowing like a bastard up there, and 35 with mixed precip in Tamaqua.

Tell the truth...you miss that.

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24 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Oh yeah, I get it. Wasn't calling you out. As for the NWS playing catch up, CTP is/was the same way. They've almost always played conservative with totals up almost to game time.

I think we should grade the NWS-State College on winter event. Starting on this one today. Just to see how they fare. 

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8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Tell the truth...you miss that.

I agree that I miss "the chase" as in tracking an event until it verifies (or not).

I don't miss the aftermath of digging out, cleaning cars, driving a semi in the snow, freezing my ass off, etc.

Tracking from afar, without having to actually deal with work and stress of the storms outcome, is nice.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

48 and wet here this AM.  Still torn on the snow as a lot of suites, both global and not, are just elevation accums out this way.... and above my elevation in the 800's.    Surprised to see the large deviations this close.   The NAM replacement is nothing for most of PA (Fv3).  

What about the other NAM’s? the GFS? The Euro? All of those show a couple inches out our way. 
 

The FV3 is not operational, and may never be. It’s another piece of guidance, and it could be right…I’m just saying that there’s plenty of guidance that gives us accumulations.

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10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

What about the other NAM’s? the GFS? The Euro? All of those show a couple inches out our way. 
 

The FV3 is not operational, and may never be. It’s another piece of guidance, and it could be right…I’m just saying that there’s plenty of guidance that gives us accumulations.

The GFS does not show a couple inches anywhere in the LSV on most models sites.   Neither does the RGEM and some of the other mesos.  (Not on Kuch at least.)   The Fv3 is targeted to be the replacement this time next year. 

 

image.png.e842ace6a92a1df8872902dd9803c5e8.png

 

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