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Central PA Winter 23/24


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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I’m just waiting for the NFL to announce they’re going to play the game Monday night or something. The NY governor declared state of emergency for that part of the state last night. As much of a spectacle that it would be on TV, I dunno how you logistically play the game when it comes to getting the fans there in those conditions with the state of emergency declaration. 

Totally agree, shut it down.

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CTP is really ramping up tomorrow’s snow squall potential.

This is for Harrisburg.

Sunday
Occasional flurries with a slight chance of snow showers before 8am, then snow showers between 8am and 3pm, then occasional flurries after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

 

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You have bigger concerns with your team to be worrying about what's going on in Dallas. :)

I will go on record right now and say that the Eagles are going to crush Tampa. I honestly think they win by at least 17.

Yea, he should let any other man than him worry about Dallas stuff.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP is really ramping up tomorrow’s snow squall potential.

This is for Harrisburg.

Sunday
Occasional flurries with a slight chance of snow showers before 8am, then snow showers between 8am and 3pm, then occasional flurries after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

 

CTP discussion for tomorrow’s squalls…

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
A progged west-southwest flow should keep lake effect snow north of the border through Sunday. However, the passage of a
secondary cold front will likely be accompanied by a round of snow showers/squalls Sunday morning. High res models generate up to 150-200 J/KG Sunday morning (esp over and to the east of the Susq Valley during the midday hours), supporting the convective
snows. Low level convergence along the front, combined with
steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and some cape, argues for the potential of a linear snow squall band traversing the
northern counties between 10Z-14Z Sunday across the Western Mtns, and 14-18Z for the Central and Eastern Zones.

Will continue to strongly message the potential for these dangerous squalls on Social Media outlets and to our Public
Partners. Lingering, light upslope snow could last into Sunday PM over the Alleghenies. However, the focus for much of the
region will become gusty winds and an arrival of the coldest air
mass of this winter, with wind chills falling below zero by evening over the Allegheny Plateau.

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CTP discussion for tomorrow’s squalls…
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...A progged west-southwest flow should keep lake effect snow north of the border through Sunday. However, the passage of asecondary cold front will likely be accompanied by a round of snow showers/squalls Sunday morning. High res models generate up to 150-200 J/KG Sunday morning (esp over and to the east of the Susq Valley during the midday hours), supporting the convectivesnows. Low level convergence along the front, combined withsteep lower tropospheric lapse rates and some cape, argues for the potential of a linear snow squall band traversing thenorthern counties between 10Z-14Z Sunday across the Western Mtns, and 14-18Z for the Central and Eastern Zones.Will continue to strongly message the potential for these dangerous squalls on Social Media outlets and to our PublicPartners. Lingering, light upslope snow could last into Sunday PM over the Alleghenies. However, the focus for much of theregion will become gusty winds and an arrival of the coldest airmass of this winter, with wind chills falling below zero by evening over the Allegheny Plateau.

The HRRR looks great for those tomorrow

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Just heard they postponed the Steelers Bills game till Monday.
Surprised they waited this long.
Watch them get stuck under the snowband Monday for the game, while they miss it during previous game hours sunday

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I am sure the steel fans wanted to watch their game this weekend instead of Monday (though it is a day off for some) so I apologize for promoting it to be moved....but it would have been irresponsible to play it today.  
You mean tomorrow

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am sure the steel fans wanted to watch their game this weekend instead of Monday (though it is a day off for some) so I apologize for promoting it to be moved....but it would have been irresponsible to play it today.  

Yeah I agree but it would have been fun to watch it tomorrow. Blizzard game that would have never been canceled years ago.

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15 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah I agree but it would have been fun to watch it tomorrow. Blizzard game that would have never been canceled years ago.

I’m sure the state of emergency declaration probably did in any chance of them going thru with the game. You’re either telling people to stay off the roads or you’re not. Pittsburgh’s only a bit over 200 miles from Buffalo, you think Steeler fans or Bills Mafia would actually stay home and not try to go to the game? Haha 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’m sure the state of emergency declaration probably did in any chance of them going thru with the game. You’re either telling people to stay off the roads or you’re not. Pittsburgh’s only a bit over 200 miles from Buffalo, you think Steeler fans or Bills Mafia would actually stay home and not try to go to the game? Haha 

Yeah for sure. 

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I think it’s safe to say our phasing big storm potential is probably off the table with regards to Tuesday. However, I do think the wave of lighter snows coming across PA is still viable as we drop in the northern branch trough and try to force some precip development. That’s still on the majority of guidance in various forms. Gonna need good ratios to yield anything advisory worthy, which given the cold column in place should be doable. A 15:1 on a tenth or two of QPF with some decent surface cold would be enough for an advisory event in the Sus Valley. 

I’m already starting to pay more attention to the high res and short range guidance to get a handle on this. One thing I’m noticing is a precip hole in the south central part of the state. Since this is modeled to be more of a wave now with later and further offshore/weaker coastal development, predominant low level flow is of a WSW component. So that  implies potential downsloping off the Alleghenies and a potential precip shadow in play.

 

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I am going to miss my first Steelers game in years now. Might or might not be the right decision but I'm depressed. I have meetings going into the evening at work that I'm running. Painful to miss a playoff game. And as @Mount Joy Snowman said...Monday might not be any better. Even if there MIGHT be less snow falling, fans are going to have to deal with a lot more OTG to dig out and navigate to the stadium.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am going to miss my first Steelers game in years now. Might or might not be the right decision but I'm depressed. I have meetings going into the evening at work that I'm running. Painful to miss a playoff game. And as @Mount Joy Snowman said...Monday might not be any better. Even if there MIGHT be less snow falling, fans are going to have to deal with a lot more OTG to dig out and navigate to the stadium.

MU isn’t closed for MLK Day? That’s shocking to me. 

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