Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good post by @psuhoffman on late January & beyond… “The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And it’s actually what the guidance suggests. “ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z NBM blend still solid for Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z NBM blend still solid for Tuesday. Can it win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Extended 18z HRRR is interesting toward the end. Occluded front comes through overnight tonight and brings falling temps back to around freezing tomorrow. There’s the arctic front that then comes through Sat night-Sun morning that sharply brings temps down with the arrival of the actual arctic air. Tries to model a line of squalls crossing the state with it. Perhaps something to keep an eye on this weekend. This feature is showing on other high res guidance like the 3k NAM and RRFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The SE breeze here this afternoon is definitely more feisty than the one with Tuesday’s system. High gust of 31mph. Temp/dewpoint at 40/28ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Extended 18z HRRR is interesting toward the end. Occluded front comes through overnight tonight and brings falling temps back to around freezing tomorrow. There’s the arctic front that then comes through Sat night-Sun morning that sharply brings temps down with the arrival of the actual arctic air. Tries to model a line of squalls crossing the state with it. Perhaps something to keep an eye on this weekend. This feature is showing on other high res guidance like the 3k NAM and RRFS. You have Route 80's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Festus said: Pretty remarkable that 49 out of 50 states has a NWS product(s) issued (yes, AK and HI have something). Guess Arizona is the place to be. Yup...lol But, it was 27 this morning again, and we did have a freeze warning, which obviously expired now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The bad news today is that a homeless woman tried to bite me. The good news is last time a homeless woman tried to bite me was the first week in January 2016. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: The bad news today is that a homeless woman tried to bite me. The good news is last time a homeless woman tried to bite me was the first week in January 2016. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Hmm, if Atomix were here... Edit-We do have Canderson though who may add some color to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hmm, if Atomix were here... Did he get banned because of last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Did he get banned because of last week? I do not know but I have not seen him since then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I do not know but I have not seen him since then. A shame if he did. I enjoy reading you guys. For some reason metfan was allowed to come over and troll on our thread with no issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z Nam, Rgem and especially Icon nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon forms a very weak low in Eastern NC and then appears to transfer to another one off the NJ coast.... resulting snow for this forum is 3-6" Central Franklin County and East but rain/mix limits accums in SE PA and far SE parts of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Nam, Rgem and especially Icon nice. I thin Nam would eventually have been a lot more snow than the Icon. Not sure about the Rgem, having issues with what vort to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I thin Nam would eventually have been a lot more snow than the Icon. Not sure about the Rgem, having issues with what vort to focus on. You may be right, but I'd consider it a win either way. But I do think the Rgem would have come thru for us too. Very similar to Gem. I'll have the 18z Gem in an hour or less for comparison. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Idk about anyone else, but I sure wish we had more models to analyze. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z RGEM I believe would have been a decent hit for us. It looks similar to the end of the 12z Canadian which hit us the best at 12z today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Idk about anyone else, but I sure wish we had more models to analyze. Refer to the list I published for the NBM. You would need an assistant to peruse those. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'm ready to enjoy tonight. :] 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm ready to enjoy tonight. :] The moments before the 96 hour HH GFS panel comes out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ughh Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We cannot win…never. Always go with the least snowiest model. ALWAYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 So which is the worse model? The model that 1st picked up on a storm idea, then after a few runs with a storm, shiws a weak pos? Or the models that picked up on the storm a day later then loses the storm the day after the model that first picked up on a storm idea? Because that is the way it looks "now." It could change, of coirse, but which models remains the question. I think none is any better or worse than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Suppression….Cold and DryCutters….mild and wetSuppression….Cold and DryCutters….mild and wetRinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: We cannot win…never. Always go with the least snowiest model. ALWAYS You are truly the antithesis of our own Blizzard of 93. I am not making fun of either of you, just an observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I didn’t notice the Mid-Atlantic folks started a storm thread earlier this afternoon, that explains everything haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It’s not time for towel throwing yet. On to 0z… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The potential for a high end event for Tuesday may be slipping away, but I think a solid Advisory level event of 2 to 4 or so is very much still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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