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Central PA Winter 23/24


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13 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Delicious diner right off rt 30, Cross Keys Diner!

We'll have to try it. But I'm addicted to the Starlight.  Apparently, it was run by other people and got a not so great rep., but improved with current owners. It has been pretty decent since we got here 4 years ago.

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Afternooners in Clarion, because if I have to read about fucking Philadelphia suburbs, you get to read about the middle of nowhere.

55°F and cloudy.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Not often you’re warmer than me. I briefly peaked at 51 earlier when the sun popped out for a hot minute but back down to 48 now under thick clouds. 

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Timing/evolution for the precip changeover of tomorrow/Monday’s system continues to be a bit intriguing . I still think the Laurel’s/central have the best chance of seeing accumulating snows overnight Sunday after the transition. Further east into the Sus Valley I’m not as sure.  I think everyone will see a transition before the precip ends but whether it’s something meaningful is the big question. We’ve all seen the overmodeled snow totals not come to fruition in the Sus Valley from similar set ups to this many times. 

One disadvantage I see is the cold air mass coming behind the front is certainly cold enough, but not impressively so. Surface temps look to be a bit of an issue that would likely mean a snow event that is a good bit less than 10:1.. especially in lower elevations.  

On the other hand, one advantage this system looks to have is dynamics, as it’s a pretty feisty shortwave having already caused (and is causing currently ) severe issues in the Ohio Valley and Deep South. We get a negatively tilted orientation of the trough as we develop a coastal low that runs up the frontal boundary. High res guidance like the NAM deepen the low pretty significantly as it comes up the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

The dynamic nature of the system is why I think we get the changeover to carry across from the central counties to the LSV but accums are going to have to come from heavy rates with the marginal surface temps. Short range stuff like the HRRR starting to get into more decent range take accumulating snows into the Sus Valley fairly easily and the 18z NAM took it all the way inside I-95 from DC to NYC. The short term high res guidance also seem to have a bit of a lull in precip, shutting off in the central and lightening in the east for a few hours in the late afternoon/early evening. Rates then ramp up as precip shield redevelops and enhances with the deepening coastal low and that’s when the transistion starts to push east. Positioning of the frontal boundary coupled with the timing of the coastal running up it is going to be key for setting up the corridor of the best potential for accumulating snows. 

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8 hours ago, WX-PA said:

We might get a few inches Sunday night. At least in this forum we aren't cancelling winter like they are on the NYC metro forum.. It's getting nasty over there..man

It’s been a pretty rough run of it in the NYC metro. I believe they’re up to 665ish days since Central Park has recorded at least an inch of snow, which is far and away an all time record of futility there. 

Speaking of such records, this ought to throw some gasoline on the great MDT T debate haha. Saw this noted in CTP disco yesterday. There’s a half decent chance they’re probably not going to get to pass #2 though.. unless the Monday ob is taken on the tarmac behind a jet warming up for takeoff. 

Quote
.CLIMATE...
It has been 316 days since the last measurable snowfall
(>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This ranks as the 3rd longest run on
record.

1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020
2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007
3. 317 days ending 12/08/2023

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

It’s been a pretty rough run of it in the NYC metro. I believe they’re up to 665ish days since Central Park has recorded at least an inch of snow, which is far and away an all time record of futility there. 

Speaking of such records, this ought to throw some gasoline on the great MDT T debate haha. Saw this noted in CTP disco yesterday. There’s a half decent chance they’re probably not going to get to pass #2 though.. unless the Monday ob is taken on the tarmac behind a jet warming up for takeoff. 

 

Nothing surprises me anymore with MDT measurements.

It is an absolute joke that they did not record .2 or .3 of snow the other day.

Heck, even the heat desert known as MU recorded .8 of snow for the event.

Somehow, I would bet that if CTP would have had some type of Advisory out for the event with any accumulation mentioned, they would have cared enough to “update” the recorded measurement to cover themselves.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nothing surprises me anymore with MDT measurements.

It is an absolute joke that they did not record .2 or .3 of snow the other day.

Heck, even the heat desert known as MU recorded .8 of snow for the event.

Somehow, I would bet that if CTP would have had some type of Advisory out for the event with any accumulation mentioned, they would have cared enough to “update” the recorded measurement to cover themselves.

I will also add that even @canderson in the heat island of downtown Harrisburg recorded a few tenths of snow this week!

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That's crazy. We had a lot of fog and clouds with a few hours at most of sun. We maxed in the upper 40's per nearby Wunderground sites.

I was in WV most of the day but it was sunny here all day from what I saw.    HGR only hit 48 but we were near 60 down in Martinsburg so the higher elevations turned on the fryer which happens oh so often with SW winds.  It is 47 here right now which is 8 higher than MDT and HGR.   Elevation is so very overrated sometimes.   When that warm air is pouring in from the south it gets here before the lower elevations like HGR.  

image.png.ddaad9c979e93217ffe674761a997b2e.png

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was in WV most of the day but it was sunny here all day from what I saw.    HGR only hit 48 but we were near 60 down in Martinsburg so the higher elevations turned on the fryer which happens oh so often with SW winds.  It is 47 here right now which is 8 higher than MDT and HGR.   Elevation is so very overrated sometimes.   When that warm air is pouring in from the south it gets here before the lower elevations like HGR.  

image.png.ddaad9c979e93217ffe674761a997b2e.png

 

 

Ughh...the dreaded warm tongue. Only time you want to see that is in certain kinds of movies.

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