Itstrainingtime Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 @MAG5035 - the potential heavy snowfall rates in Orchard Park will be just one element - BUF forecasting winds Sunday afternoon at 25-30mph sustained with gusts in the 40s. It's going to be very difficult to execute pretty much anything on offense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 About a 1/4 of PA, including Magland, still has potential snow on the way for rush hour today. What is rush hour like in the Laurels? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I am always across the street at Mexican where they make the drinks with double Tequila. I hate the parking battle for your place. You guys need a Red Robin. Then there is too much ingestion! Free fries means make yourself sick so you feel like the money was well spent. I haven't ordered fries in over 10 years...literally! My wife used to but her genetic cholesterol issue won't letter unless she wants to go on meds, which she doesn't. No, go ahead and kill yourself at Red Robin while I'm driving around looking for parking. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon has Lanco 55-60 degrees for breakfast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon gets some light snow to the M/D line Monday afternoon. It is that same energy mentioned in reference to the Nam above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 LOW in Eastern NC Tue night and some light snow breaking out over the S/E third of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ICON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon is pretty tame as to snow totals. Mostly adv level with a bit more in far S/E PA LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon not heavy on the dark blues but there are great ratios with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, mitchnick said: Icon not heavy on the dark blues but there are great ratios with that look. Phila thread will like it but drastic change from 6Z where it was reforming a low and deepening rapidly. Forms it much sooner this time but fairly weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon not heavy on the dark blues but there are great ratios with that look. Its coming around and I'm fine w/ where its at. Notably SLP pops in central NC (which is about 200-250 miles NW of 6z. Gut says GFS nooner is gonna be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: What do you think about the 500mb differences out west? To me that’s part of the equation of why the Euro is doing what it’s doing having a potent shortwave swinging down into the Pac NW dampening the western ridge where the GFS just has a nicely amplified ridge all the way up thru BC and no shortwave whatsoever. On the other hand I guess other guidance like the Canadian has that shortwave feature similar to the Euro and manages to be even further inside with the track than the GFS. But putting the Euro and GFS side by side that’s a big difference in the major features out west. There’s certainly some integral parts to assess in that area and the way they are handled on guidance. I would imagine this is one important part to the puzzle in the downstream pattern. Kind of wild to see such massive differences at these leads into an event. A model battle in that area might be what sends our setup in either direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Easy way to show the difference between the slower developing 12Z Icon and 6Z...Rou and Mdt both lost 8-9" off our snow map totals. Really everyone lost over 6" or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS snow the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS looks fairly similar through 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 How much Virga: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1010 Low off the Carolinas at 93. May be going for the pull in trick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 and a tinge better w/ norther precip field at 90. Yes, I'm still here. This is important shit. To heck w/ clients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS Going towards Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Some energy trying to form into a low in the gulf. Not sure that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 No real phase, no coast climb. A total miss it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS looks an awfully like the bad Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 at 102 1007mb vs 1003 at 6z. Precip shield responded and NW quad was not getting r done. Still ok, but not what we wanted to see. trough to pos tilted and she gets 2pts for escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, canderson said: GFS looks an awfully like the bad Euro runs. I think (just my opinion) this has gone from what was a great looking for a sweeping low from the Southeast (what we saw days ago) to a timing nightmare of needing up to 3 pieces of energy now to time everything right to either form or have a low climb the coast. It may do it at 18Z. This not showing it is not a big deal IMO but real hard to see any consensus from this type of situation as to the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It finally forms another low on Wed with some post frontal type snows...mostly south of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ggem not as amped but should produce snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think (just my opinion) this has gone from what was a great looking for a sweeping low from the Southeast (what we saw days ago) to a timing nightmare of needing up to 3 pieces of energy now to time everything right to either form or have a low climb the coast. It may do it at 18Z. This not showing it is not a big deal IMO but real hard to see any consensus from this type of situation as to the next few days. Yeah, makes sense. No reason to panic - we wont't have a clear picture of all the parts that will steer and build the system until Sunday like the great @MAG5035 said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It finally forms another low on Wed with some post frontal type snows...mostly south of us though. Last run was rain in eastern counties.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: About a 1/4 of PA, including Magland, still has potential snow on the way for rush hour today. What is rush hour like in the Laurels? LOL Busier than you think haha. The major routes around here (I-99, US 22, US 322, US 219) are moderately busy, especially around State College. The stretch of Route 322 that goes up the Allegheny Front towards Clearfield was closed for several hours during Tuesday morning’s snow blast, as were several other intermediate routes in the area. I’m looking north of here for any potential bigger issues this evening, though we’ll see. North-central up above I-80 has been the target area for several inches of snow. Between here and State College on the I-99 corridor will be need to be watched when precip arrives this eve, but this one will be starting with warmer surface temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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