Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good info here from @MillvilleWx on the NBM when @CAPE just posted it. “NBM keeps getting better” “This is incredibly important. NBM is a great tool to see trends in the means. The amount of data that is incorporated into the blend aids in a lot of probabilistic data and limits biases. If you guys recall, when the NBM kept trimming snow from the means on the lead up to the last event here, that was a sign that that the trend was moving the wrong direction and despite some of the guidance indicating a better result, it never wavered. This is probably one of the better ensemble tools to utilize when in the medium range and closer in. This is a great trend to see and will be paying close attention to this over the weekend.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Some lows around the county this AM- East Nantmeal Twp. 29.1 / Atgen 33.6 / Chester Springs 25.7 / Devault 26.1 / Warwick Twp. 23.3 / Glenmoore 27.9 / West Chester 25.0 / Kennett Square 26.0. Flash flood watch tonight with rain arriving from SW to NE across the area after 7pm. We could see around additional inch or more of unneeded rain across the area. Temps will rise tonight to the low 50's before falling all day tomorrow with temps falling below freezing by 6pm. Sunday should see highs into the upper 30's but that may be our last day above freezing for at least the next week. Additionally, snow chances will increase by Tuesday. Of note if and a big if... we do see any snow a couple models are hinting at temperatures near zero by Thursday morning this assumes there is some snow cover. Records for today: High 64 (2020) / Low minus 7 (1981) / Rain 1.98" (1983) / Snow 5.0" (1982) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Low of 30 here this AM. Have only been below freezing a few days this month...about to change big time. For now: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 414 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-130200- /O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.240113T1200Z-240114T0200Z/ Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 414 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...West-Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 45 and 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty Southeasterly winds later this afternoon and early tonight will peak between 40 and 45 mph. A 6 to 8 hour lull in the wind will occur late tonight before the stronger gusts develop during the late morning and afternoon hours on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Further out in time on the 19th, the 0z Euro & Canadian have yet another Winter storm chance to track. This is the period that many good posters & pro Mets have been salivating over for some time as the peak of the pattern potential before we relax/reload. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Man do I love seeing us entrenched under that 850 -20 line by late next week. If we can get some fresh snow on the ground prior, look out. Need to knock back that cool 7 degree AN at MDT ha. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Thanks all for showing the good runs getting a little nervous last night. Glad to see things coming back around. Truth is GFS has never "lost" the storm, and this year has been decent to follow. Like I suggested yesterday, we just want most (and hopefully Euro soon) to have the storm. One thing I'm hopeful for (and think is starting to get sorted out on morning runs) is the amount of different pieces of energy and which one becomes our storm. GFS and CMC are much cleaner presentation at 6z, and ICON is a hybrid B and shows a secondary pop at 108 (I think Bubbler was chatting about it). Personally not a fan of B's - redevelopers, even if LSV is in the jackpot (right now). Subtle timing changes and too often our storm goes poof for MBY. I'll take 6z GFS and CMC and sign right now...no matter the upside (and like I said yesterday - watch energy on backside for that sharpening of the trough. The more it dives in, the more neg tilt and that could really run up some better numbers for many.) Another part that gets me and likely a bunch of us giddy, is that whatever falls, aint goin nowhere for a while. Been a LONGG time coming to see that. Happy Friday gang. I'm busy today so I look forward to the various PBP's and expect Bubbles/Mitch/ and toothless Blizz to be on point as I'll be reading from afar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NE thread just posted 6z Eps further SE up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: NE thread just posted 6z Eps further SE up there. Ouch, I've seen this too many times, I just really hope the other models don't slowly move towards them. I think the next 24 hours will be critical especially once the current storm moves out tonight. Love seeing all other models on board, but need to see EURO move towards them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: NE thread just posted 6z Eps further SE up there. Had to think abt this and where it applies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: NE thread just posted 6z Eps further SE up there. The whole thing is fun but worrisome at the same time. Not one of those situations that we will know Sat or Sun or maybe even Monday. Especially if this is any type of transfer situation vs. a sweeping low from the south....both scenarios on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Porsche said: Ouch, I've seen this too many times, I just really hope the other models don't slowly move towards them. I think the next 24 hours will be critical especially once the current storm moves out tonight. Love seeing all other models on board, but need to see EURO move towards them soon. As I just stated in last post, I'm riding the GFS (due to decent Op run consistency from D7 and in. Its done pretty well wrt showing storm potential and while its waivered some (as they do), its never really "lost" it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, Porsche said: Ouch, I've seen this too many times, I just really hope the other models don't slowly move towards them. I think the next 24 hours will be critical especially once the current storm moves out tonight. Love seeing all other models on board, but need to see EURO move towards them soon. Agreed, hopefully we see the Euro come around by tonight, but it’s encouraging to see all other guidance have a good storm at this range. Quick general recap of 0z/6z runs: Euro - 0z Whiff ICON - moderate snow hit at 6z Canadian - 0z inside runner with mixing GFS - Warning level snow at 6z/0z Ukie- 0z Warning snow- high end LSV Based on the above, the GFS is showing the middle ground at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Another slight bump up in snow on the 12z NBM blend of models in the LSV. Lancaster is now at 5 inches this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Another slight bump up in snow on the 12z NBM blend of models in the LSV. Lancaster is now at 5 inches this run. I'm following this closely as i recall with last weekend event it seemed to perform well. These blend of models slowly diminished and moved NW and that ended up to be fairly close to reality (if memory serves me correctly). Good to see where it's at right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Someone on the MA just said the Euro did not have the right/enough data ingested. The sign of a true storm hunt (and someone stole my Cow Bell bit) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Someone on the MA just said the Euro did not have the right/enough data ingested. The sign of a true storm hunt (and someone stole my Cow Bell bit) I checked our forum's weenie list and that comment lands in the #7 position on this Season's Top 40 countdown! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys! Popping in to provide some thoughts. Yesterday I liked the trends, outside the Euro which is currently on its own with regards to the 5H pattern. I mentioned in the MA thread yesterday about suppression or no storm concerns given the chaotic upper level vorticity pattern across the NH. This storm currently developing across the mid-section will help set the stage in a multitude of ways for what could occur next week. One of the things I like is the multiple ways to score in this event, whether that be a marginal event or a SECS/MECS if all breaks the right way and we induce phasing at the right time. Until we get a full resolve for what occurs with this current system, it will be a feedback mechanism for the medium range. I do love seeing increased ensemble support and the blend either maintaining a solid depiction of areal snow coverage of 2-3+”, and/or improving in the means and median of potential outcomes. Still got time to see some significant shifts within the surface evolution, but I say by Sunday we’ll have a general idea and all systems would be go if everything is in-sync. LSV and points northeast are the primary for this pattern, but the central and west-central folks could certainly get in on the action with high-ratio fluff in the right evolution. Fun times! What do you think about the 500mb differences out west? To me that’s part of the equation of why the Euro is doing what it’s doing having a potent shortwave swinging down into the Pac NW dampening the western ridge where the GFS just has a nicely amplified ridge all the way up thru BC and no shortwave whatsoever. On the other hand I guess other guidance like the Canadian has that shortwave feature similar to the Euro and manages to be even further inside with the track than the GFS. But putting the Euro and GFS side by side that’s a big difference in the major features out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Here’s the latest for the arctic wild-card matchups Kansas City 7pm Sat via NBM. This falls to about -3ºF by the end of the game. Euro is as cold as -5ºF at kickoff Wind Chills: Here’s BUF’s early snow forecast for the lake effect snow. Orchard Park is right in the middle of that 18-24” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I checked our forum's weenie list and that comment lands in the #7 position on this Season's Top 40 countdown! One you do not often see is too much data ingested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Here’s the latest for the arctic wild-card matchups Kansas City 7pm Sat via NBM. This falls to about -3ºF by the end of the game. Euro is as cold as -5ºF at kickoff Wind Chills: Here’s BUF’s early snow forecast for the lake effect snow. Orchard Park is right in the middle of that 18-24” I so want to see a blizzard gameSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Plenty of cold air around next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 One you do not often see is too much data ingested. Theoretically, too much data may damper the signal to noise ratio. In real life as well, more data isn't better always. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Nam fairly similar through 75. That first streak of snow from the initial piece of energy and return flow west of the high does not look to reach us (at least by then) on its current depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just never hear it as a "maybe the model messed up" comment. it is always not enough data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: One you do not often see is too much data ingested. You haven't seen me at dinner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You haven't seen me at dinner. I am always across the street at Mexican where they make the drinks with double Tequila. I hate the parking battle for your place. You guys need a Red Robin. Then there is too much ingestion! Free fries means make yourself sick so you feel like the money was well spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NBM probably beyween .25-.5" less than last run, but more expansive to the west of Rt.15 I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Here’s the latest for the arctic wild-card matchups Kansas City 7pm Sat via NBM. This falls to about -3ºF by the end of the game. Euro is as cold as -5ºF at kickoff Wind Chills: Here’s BUF’s early snow forecast for the lake effect snow. Orchard Park is right in the middle of that 18-24” Fun Wild card weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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