Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Blend of models is holding steady. Does anyone know from which models that it pulls its data? https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm Rap HRRR Exr The regular gang! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Differences remain in timing & low track with the GFS & Canadian at 0z. The Canadian is too tucked & the GFS is an offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z UKIE is a perfect track crusher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z UKIE is a perfect track crusher. Great UKIE low position for Susquehanna Valley snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: this would be with temps mid 20s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Ruin said: this would be with temps mid 20s? Yes, temps are in the 20s on the GEFS dropping into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z Canadian ensemble improved as well over its 12z run, especially for the LSV. There are timing differences, but the snow map tells the story in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, temps are in the 20s on the GEFS dropping into the teens. nice ty so this should be a true 12 to 1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: nice ty so this should be a true 12 to 1 ratio Too far out now to determine final track & ratios, but if the colder scenarios happen, ratios could be more than 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z Icon back in bigtime with 8-12" 6z Gfs 8-12" too. Everything is in but the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z Icon back in bigtime with 8-12" 6z Gfs 8-12" too. Everything is in but the Euro.Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hey guys! Popping in to provide some thoughts. Yesterday I liked the trends, outside the Euro which is currently on its own with regards to the 5H pattern. I mentioned in the MA thread yesterday about suppression or no storm concerns given the chaotic upper level vorticity pattern across the NH. This storm currently developing across the mid-section will help set the stage in a multitude of ways for what could occur next week. One of the things I like is the multiple ways to score in this event, whether that be a marginal event or a SECS/MECS if all breaks the right way and we induce phasing at the right time. Until we get a full resolve for what occurs with this current system, it will be a feedback mechanism for the medium range. I do love seeing increased ensemble support and the blend either maintaining a solid depiction of areal snow coverage of 2-3+”, and/or improving in the means and median of potential outcomes. Still got time to see some significant shifts within the surface evolution, but I say by Sunday we’ll have a general idea and all systems would be go if everything is in-sync. LSV and points northeast are the primary for this pattern, but the central and west-central folks could certainly get in on the action with high-ratio fluff in the right evolution. Fun times! 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NBM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z Icon back in bigtime with 8-12" 6z Gfs 8-12" too. Everything is in but the Euro. The Icon seems to be a hybrid of what you and I were talking about yesterday. First Vort sweeps out to sea but second piece of energy develops in the Northern DelMarVa. More traditional than the low creeping up the coast scenario. Lanco our safest place to be with these depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GFS is not backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Icon seems to be a hybrid of what you and I were talking about yesterday. First Vort sweeps out to sea but second piece of energy develops in the Northern DelMarVa. More traditional than the low creeping up the coast scenario. Lanco our safest place to be with these depictions. Sorta anafrontal. If it works, fine by me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sorta anafrontal. If it works, fine by me! I think it has a better chance of working than hoping the first vort does not escape and have it climb the coast while being energized by the second. Out as far west as me, this is super questionable as to it working but more for the LSV. This type of event, as depicted, is a weather ob's geek's dream as you will indeed be watching for the second low to start forming. Without that second piece of energy, this is nothing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z Icon back in bigtime with 8-12" 6z Gfs 8-12" too. Everything is in but the Euro. Good to see the 6z ICON back on board. It did fairly well with our storm last weekend from at least a few days, it was steady, so hopefully it says on board today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GEFS had perhaps it’s best run yet for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 P15 v P12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 From my eyes, I think 6z Euro starting to cave. Lower heights at the end of the run and more precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, mitchnick said: From my eyes, I think 6z Euro starting to cave. Lower heights at the end of the run and more precip. Good news… Hey, do you have that top secret 6z GGEM to post? The RGEM at the end of its run seemed to be on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: From my eyes, I think 6z Euro starting to cave. Lower heights at the end of the run and more precip. Trough is hanging back a little and a little deeper imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: P15 v P12 Good to see that at least 18 of the 30 ensemble members bring at least advisory level snow to many of us, with several of those 18 showing warning level upside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good news… Hey, do you have that top secret 6z GGEM to post? The RGEM at the end of its run seemed to be on the right track. 0z top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 0z top Thanks, good to see the “finger” of precip aimed right at us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks, good to see the “finger” of precip aimed right at us. This whole potential is predicated on something that happens 24-48 hours after this map. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Thanks all for showing the good runs getting a little nervous last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This whole potential is predicated on something that happens 24-48 hours after this map. Fingers crossed. Indeed, but the better looks have shown this general setup a day or 2 out. These extrapolating eyes liked where it was heading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now