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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z v 18z. Also, the 500mb vort is more positively tilted, which explains the storm further off the coast.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy there's a decent signal, but I'm just analyzing the run to prior run.

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (6).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (5).png

Good info, but My point is that I’m happy the EPS didn’t move it to Bermuda!

We are in the game.

Long way to go & lots of good & bad runs to go.

Heck, we are still a couple of days away from extrapolating the 84 hr NAM & RGEM!

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP’s disco is bullish for Monday/Tuesday. And for more big winds Saturday. 

Yes, they are ramping up their discussion for the early next week chance…

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Coldest air of the winter (thus far) poised to invade Sunday
 and persist through the middle of next week.*

Lingering lake-effect snow showers across northern and western
PA will gradually dissipate on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure builds in. Sunday will be a chilly day, however, with
high temperatures running 5 to 15 degrees below average for mid
January.

Long-range models seem to be converging on producing a synoptic
snowfall across central PA Monday into early Tuesday, with low
pressure developing off the southeast coast of the United States
and tracking north-northeastward. The 00z/Jan 10 ECMWF is more
aggressive with the deepening of this low and tracks it closer
to the coast than the 12z/Jan 10 GFS.

The extended range models are in good agreement that it will
remain cold through the middle of next week, with a reinforcing
shot of cold air arriving on Tuesday behind the departing low.

 

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8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z says seasonal trend begins. Right now, that's good...but how long will it continue?

I’ll take the 6z GFS with cold air in place. It crushed the Susquehanna Valley this run. This is the furthest west solution we’ve seen yet for this potential event. Most of the ensembles & other Ops are furthest east, but this track is certainly another possibility that gets it done for us.

Long duration storm this run for CTP has depicted this 6z GFS run.

IMG_4278.png

IMG_4279.png

IMG_4280.png

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll take the 6z GFS with cold air in place. It crushed the Susquehanna Valley this run. This is the furthest west solution we’ve seen yet for this potential event. Most of the ensembles & other Ops are furthest east, but this track is certainly another possibility that gets it done for us.

Long duration storm this run for CTP has depicted this 6z GFS run.

IMG_4278.png

IMG_4279.png

IMG_4280.png

As I suggested in my first post, my concern is that it continues to shift west. In fact, you may recall my post yesterday that the Ukie was way west. Last night's run, though further east, is still far enough west that it's a rainstorm all along the east coast and Appalachians. 

I'm telling you, it is tough to beat seasonal trends. Generally, I  believe until you get a storm to break the trend, assume it holds. Modeling had this storm as the one to break the trend. Maybe it will, but it's looking now that it is far from a lock.

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56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll take the 6z GFS with cold air in place. It crushed the Susquehanna Valley this run. This is the furthest west solution we’ve seen yet for this potential event. Most of the ensembles & other Ops are furthest east, but this track is certainly another possibility that gets it done for us.

Long duration storm this run for CTP has depicted this 6z GFS run.

IMG_4278.png

IMG_4279.png

IMG_4280.png

That looks like it gets it done quite nicely. 

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We had a great snowstorm here last weekend; for those too far south that's the risk you take living there, models look great for this period; but there are those who cherry pick the one model that says rain; same old same old; if next Tuesday/Wednesday does as good as last weekend most are in great shape. But keep looking for that one model that says no, and for your area you might be lucky and be right for your area.

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Mild 35 here this AM but the GFS is not at all mild in the MR and getting a bit colder LR than what it was showing before though not a lot of pattern support on the ensembles for the LR...seems some real winter cold is on our doorsteps.  As long as it keeps the up top cold source available, we have a shot at something special here as to snow.    Starting Jan 14th, MDT does not go above freezing for 10 days.  Cannot count on 2M temps on a LR model to be right but can probably count on it being cold for a decent period...something we have not had in quite a while around here.  

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20 minutes ago, NEPA MT TOP said:

We had a great snowstorm here last weekend; for those too far south that's the risk you take living there, models look great for this period; but there are those who cherry pick the one model that says rain; same old same old; if next Tuesday/Wednesday does as good as last weekend most are in great shape. But keep looking for that one model that says no, and for your area you might be lucky and be right for your area.

Harrisburg city, Marysville & Carlisle in the LSV all had Warning level snow on Saturday of around 5 inches before the flip to rain.

Only York & Lancaster fell short of Warning level snow, but they had Advisory level amounts in most locations in those counties before the flip last Saturday.

This coming storm is a different animal. Much more cold air is in the pattern now.  I think we all win with this one.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Mile 35 here this AM but the GFS is not at all mild in the MR and getting a bit colder LR than what it was showing before...seems some real winter cold is on our doorsteps.  As long as it keeps the up top cold source available, we have a shot at something special here as to snow.    Starting Jan 14th, MDT does not go above freezing for 10 days.  Cannot count on 2M temps on a LR model to be right but can probably count on it being cold for a decent period...something we have not had in quite a while around here.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, the 19th potential got a lot more interesting on the Canadian & Euro Op.

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IMG_4270.png

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Next week could be a great week if it all plays out favorably for us, but the potential is there to get hit twice in a 4 day period.

Was looking at that Blizz. Looks like an active week. 

Thanks for keeping us updated.

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1 hour ago, NEPA MT TOP said:

We had a great snowstorm here last weekend; for those too far south that's the risk you take living there, models look great for this period; but there are those who cherry pick the one model that says rain; same old same old; if next Tuesday/Wednesday does as good as last weekend most are in great shape. But keep looking for that one model that says no, and for your area you might be lucky and be right for your area.

Why don't you just have the kahunas to quote my post since you're talking to me instead of some wishy-washy post couched to try to make it look like you're not? We have different climos. My concerns and your concerns are at odds since you probably need me to rain 90% of the time for you to get snow. You should be rejoicing when I  get rain. Lol It is what it is. And I'm not moving simply for a few snow days out of the year just like you're not moving for different weather. I can deal with the different climo issues with people in the same forum. You're not going to hurt my feelings.

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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why don't you just have the kahunas to quote my post since you're talking to me instead of some wishy-washy post couched to try to make it look like you're not? We have different climos. My concerns and your concerns are at odds since you probably need me to rain 90% of the time for you to get snow. You should be rejoicing when I  get rain. Lol It is what it is. And I'm not moving simply for a few snow days out of the year just like you're not moving for different weather. I can deal with the different climo issues with people in the same forum. You're not going to hurt my feelings.

Old Man on the Mountain/Grandpa Simpsons posts are very socky.   Seems he is the alter ego of another poster who has a beef. 

 

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