Central PA Winter 23/24

[MAG5035]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You may have a legit shot for the event on the 16 or 17, but I  put my odds of seeing a 4"+ event (with or without a mix or change to rain) at 20% tops. I can see the writing on the wall based on prior years of following winter wx in the area, 1972-present. January is looking like a whole lot of threats and not a lot of substantial hits, if any; how I hope I'm wrong. February may be different, but it's too early to say.

We’ll see, there’s a lot of lead time yet for that system to see where the large scale features end up being positioned. That system should have plenty of cold air to work with, so if it can stay under PA and along the coast there is a better chance for more frozen precip to be favored. But yea, it’s definitely a bummer to mostly waste a really active period this coming week with tomorrow and then likely on Saturday. 

[Bubbler86]

Mostly sunny and 45... a melt-a-thon

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Mostly sunny and 45... a melt-a-thon

 

Less flooding, Noah...sorry.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We’ll see, there’s a lot of lead time yet for that system to see where the large scale features end up being positioned. That system should have plenty of cold air to work with, so if it can stay under PA and along the coast there is a better chance for more frozen precip to be favored. But yea, it’s definitely a bummer to mostly waste a really active period this coming week with tomorrow and then likely on Saturday. 

There are more cutters on today's model runs than at a f@rt festival. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Less flooding, Noah...sorry.

True.   Roof saved.   Brand new as of Sept/Oct.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Mostly sunny and 45... a melt-a-thon

 

The lone solace of me not getting much snow...not having much snow to watch melt. Snow melt sucks. I'm sorry. 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

There are more cutters on today's model runs than at a f@rt festival. 

[Ruin]

so next 2 storms are now just rain/lake cutters.  cold air once again being pushed back to later middle of the month. Ive seen this song and dance last 2 years. Im glad we got the 6 inchs of snow here pissed it didnt last longer on the ground stayed cloudy all night sat too temps didnt dip down at all. Im done watching long range models lol I hope you all have fun with the weather tracking tho.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

so next 2 storms are now just rain/lake cutters.  cold air once again being pushed back to later middle of the month. Ive seen this song and dance last 2 years. Im glad we got the 6 inchs of snow here pissed it didnt last longer on the ground stayed cloudy all night sat too temps didnt dip down at all. Im done watching long range models lol I hope you all have fun with the weather tracking tho.

The storm tomorrow was always a cutter with maybe some snow TV to start...the one after was mostly likely a cutter in recent models as well.  Blame the SER.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

so next 2 storms are now just rain/lake cutters.  cold air once again being pushed back to later middle of the month. Ive seen this song and dance last 2 years. Im glad we got the 6 inchs of snow here pissed it didnt last longer on the ground stayed cloudy all night sat too temps didnt dip down at all. Im done watching long range models lol I hope you all have fun with the weather tracking tho.

I'm frustrated too.

HOWEVER...almost every 2023-24 Winter Outlook that I watched/read indicated the same general theme:

• A well above normal December temp wise with little snow (verified perfectly)
• A MILD January (1-3 degrees AN) with snow chances starting during the 2nd half of the month (My calendar is showing today as January 8th)
• A colder, snowy February

Who knows what will happen from here on out, but to this point, the forecast for this winter has been SPOT on. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm frustrated too.

HOWEVER...almost every 2023-24 Winter Outlook that I watched/read indicated the same general theme:

• A well above normal December temp wise with little snow (verified perfectly)
• A MILD January (1-3 degrees AN) with snow chances starting during the 2nd half of the month (My calendar is showing today as January 8th)
• A colder, snowy February

Who knows what will happen from here on out, but to this point, the forecast for this winter has been SPOT on. 

My calendar showed January 5th until I read this and realized I forgot to flip it a few days.  Thanks! 

[Ruin]

45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm frustrated too.

HOWEVER...almost every 2023-24 Winter Outlook that I watched/read indicated the same general theme:

• A well above normal December temp wise with little snow (verified perfectly)
• A MILD January (1-3 degrees AN) with snow chances starting during the 2nd half of the month (My calendar is showing today as January 8th)
• A colder, snowy February

Who knows what will happen from here on out, but to this point, the forecast for this winter has been SPOT on. 

True but I remember last year they said very cold tons of snow they were very wrong lol

[Ruin]

48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The storm tomorrow was always a cutter with maybe some snow TV to start...the one after was mostly likely a cutter in recent models as well.  Blame the SER.

Yeah, I know that only the very long-range forecast had this one as a snow eve. But the One saturday  till just recently. All the models had snow or mix, and then all of a sudden. It goes wide left to the lakes again

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm frustrated too.

HOWEVER...almost every 2023-24 Winter Outlook that I watched/read indicated the same general theme:

• A well above normal December temp wise with little snow (verified perfectly)
• A MILD January (1-3 degrees AN) with snow chances starting during the 2nd half of the month (My calendar is showing today as January 8th)
• A colder, snowy February

Who knows what will happen from here on out, but to this point, the forecast for this winter has been SPOT on. 

I think it's fair to say most are here for the snow. Even with that general forecast that matches strong Niños, many of those Niños had snow during warm months.  I think it’s also fair to say that decent winter show themselves by now taking into consideration the date and forecasts for the next 10 days. If we're honest, this winter fails to have any characteristics of a decent/snowy winter. Using Bwi as my benchmark, if we/they fail the rest of January, which I  would define as 2":or less for them and 4" or less here, we're looking at 94/95 and 97/98 as a viable strong Niño options. I'll stop right there.

[Yardstickgozinya]

20 minutes ago, Ruin said:

True but I remember last year they said very cold tons of snow they were very wrong lol

Who is they. I never saw any legitimate office calling for cold and snow last year in the long range. Considering it was a Nina winter it would have been a dumb forcast to put out lol. Even this year the only long range goodies I have seen are by youtubers ,wishcaster weenies, twitter, here at the forum, and clown maps. I'm sure my view will be disliked, but none of the above are  good places to get long range forecasts.

[Itstrainingtime]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think it's fair to say most are here for the snow. Even with that general forecast that matches strong Niños, many of those Niños had snow during warm months.  I think it’s also fair to say that decent winter show themselves by now taking into consideration the date and forecasts for the next 10 days. If we're honest, this winter fails to have any characteristics of a decent/snowy winter. Using Bwi as my benchmark, if we/they fail the rest of January, which I  would define as 2":or less for them and 4" or less here, we're looking at 94/95 and 97/98 as a viable strong Niño options. I'll stop right there.

I can't say that it's not a viable concern at this point. 

9 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Who is they. I never saw any legitimate office calling for cold and snow last year in the long range. Considering it was a Nina winter it would have been a dumb forcast to put out lol. Even this year the only long range goodies I have seen are by youtubers ,wishcaster weenies, twitter, here at the forum, and clown maps. I'm sure my view will be disliked, but none of the above are  good places to get long range forecasts.

No, you're exactly right. Last year was never supposed to be snowy, let alone cold. Not sure where he got that from but most forecasts were for AN temps and BN snowfall. 

[Bubbler86]

52 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Yeah, I know that only the very long-range forecast had this one as a snow eve. But the One saturday  till just recently. All the models had snow or mix, and then all of a sudden. It goes wide left to the lakes again

I went back to the 18Z runs of the GFS from Thur, Fri, Sat and Sun and the early weekend one was always snow TV followed by rain or just rain.   Some, including me, discussed it up a bit in hopes of a better outcome but it was never a snow storm here.    We moved on to the MLK one which is still in play... case in point, today's 18Z GFS

 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I went back to the 18Z runs of the GFS from Thur, Fri, Sat and Sun and the early weekend one was always snow TV followed by rain or just rain.   Some, including me, discussed it up a bit in hopes of a better outcome but it was never a snow storm here.    We moved on to the MLK one which is still in play... case in point, today's 18Z GFS

 

12z Gefs had, for that far away, a decent signal.  As we know, the operational is just another ensemble member essentially, so it will be all over the place. What bugs me is how all the ingredients are there but to get us to score, is beyond thread the needle difficult. But hope springs eternal....until the spring breaks.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Gefs had, for that far away, a decent signal.  As we know, the operational is just another ensemble member essentially, so it will be all over the place. What bugs me is how all the ingredients are there but to get us to score, is beyond thread the needle difficult. But hope springs eternal....until the spring breaks.

Sure, but no one ever said "all the models had snow or mix."  FWIW, the Op is a higher res member but that does not make it right. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Gefs had, for that far away, a decent signal.  As we know, the operational is just another ensemble member essentially, so it will be all over the place. What bugs me is how all the ingredients are there but to get us to score, is beyond thread the needle difficult. But hope springs eternal....until the spring breaks.

The other key if what I read on the MA board is right, the GFS is using the new Core (Fv3) and the Gefs is not.  Unsure why that does not get more airtime as an issue, but I think it is.  Again, old core could be better. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Channel 21 says you need a Generac tomorrow.  Hype is really up for this one. 

[anotherman]

Channel 21 says you need a Generac tomorrow.  Hype is really up for this one. 

That’s good. People are oblivious.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sure, but no one ever said "all the models had snow or mix."  FWIW, the Op is a higher res member but that does not make it right. 

I was just talking about today's run.

Mlk is a problem since we go into the unfavorable MJO phases on or about the 13th. I think by Mlk we fight the MJO. Hopefully, it passes fast into 7, but MJO forecasts stink. In any event, if we miss next week, I  think it's a while before anything legit pops up. Jmho as much as I  wish it wasn't. 

 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I was just talking about today's run.

Mlk is a problem since we go into the unfavorable MJO phases on or about the 13th. I think by Mlk we fight the MJO. Hopefully, it passes fast into 7, but MJO forecasts stink. In any event, if we miss next week, I  think it's a while before anything legit pops up. Jmho as much as I  wish it wasn't. 

 

Ruin said all the previous runs were showing snow, to avoid any confusion.  And I agree, if we miss MLK, we punt the rest of Jan. 

[Bubbler86]

As bad as the Philly Football Team has played for the last month and one half, drawing TPA is the best they could have hoped for. 

[Blizzard of 93]

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ruin said all the previous runs were showing snow, to avoid any confusion.  And I agree, if we miss MLK, we punt the rest of Jan. 

No reason to punt the rest of January even if we miss on the 16th/17th. I think we have a good chance for a Winter storm in that period. 
There is plenty of cold that will be entering our region after the storm on Saturday.

We will have our chances.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS was close to giving us a solid event on the 16th, but it got shredded this run as it moved east.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Canadian was also a shredder, but the 12z Euro was amped & provided a snow & ice event to CTP this run.

Long way to go until this is resolved.

[Blizzard of 93]

The blend of the models today could provide a good event for the 16th. Timing will be everything with the players on the field.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Teleconnections on the 12z EPS are mostly favorable once to this weekend through the end of the 15 day run.

Translation… No punting.