Central PA Winter 23/24

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, dj88 said:

I think maybe elevation played into it somewhat? I live right in Elysburg and we never had more than 2 inches on the ground before changing to rain. But I think the top of Natalie had 5. My parents in Danville also had 5. Seems Elysburg proper is always warmer?

Yeah I could have added Danville to the winners list (hills north towards northumberland anyway).  Bear Gap always "wins".  Lol.

Elevation was discussed by some of us early on wrt this event, and that surely factored into the mix of who got what.  R/S line is tricky in marginal events and always some winners and losers.  We all got snow, so it was a win IMO. 

[Festus]

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Holy wowzers, after the intense storm moves in tomorrow, the next one looks like it might be even stronger. A 961mb low in the midwest this weekend - Chicagoland is going to clean up this week. 

If that pressure verifies, only 3 2023 Atlantic hurricanes had a lower pressure (Lee, 926, Cat 5 / Franklin, 926, Cat 4 / Idalia, 940, Cat 4).

Wowzers indeed.

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.02" from yesterday's rain/snow showers and a low of 36.  Snow in the yard hanging on for dear life.  Whether rain or snow, looks like we have an action-packed couple of weeks ahead.  I still remain optimistic for what the back half of this winter can bring.  Onward.

yeah, it was nice to see chatter last week, and looks like more chatter (for various reasons) may continue.  Really hoping next weeks pattern can put some more snow/cold on the board for us.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Looks like MU might be punting the next 3 storms:

(1/2) Phew! In terms of wild weather, the next 7-10 days are shaping up to be downright crazy! There may not be much snow in the I-95 corridor, northern MD, or southeastern PA, but several "big storms" should impact the region with high winds & heavy rain..

(2/2) Don't put much stock in the exact path of the 12th-14th or 16th-18th systems yet, but a persistent storm track from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into SE Canada seems to be emerging & could certainly come to fruition. Expect talk of #flooding & high winds to be common.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Festus said:

If that pressure verifies, only 3 2023 Atlantic hurricanes had a lower pressure (Lee, 926, Cat 5 / Franklin, 926, Cat 4 / Idalia, 940, Cat 4).

Wowzers indeed.

Hopefully you don't live in the flood-prone areas of Manheim - lots of concern from area mets this morning about potentially significant stream flooding with each of the next several storms. 

[anotherman]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hopefully you don't live in the flood-prone areas of Manheim - lots of concern from area mets this morning about potentially significant stream flooding with each of the next several storms. 

Definitely could be a problem.  The entire Chiques Creek watershed has a history of major flooding.

[MAG5035]

16 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

If the cold pushes start to keep deflecting away from the EC as we get later in January, we may really be talking PTSD.    NAO's, MJO's, we can talk them all up but we need real cold in NY and South Canada prior to moisture entering the area. 

 

@Itstrainingtime  @sauss06 and others, congrats to the Steel.   Could argue they are playing the best NFL football in PA right now. 

Any snow weenie Steeler fans up for a snow chase/ playoff game could get a two for 1 special in Orchard Park this Sunday.

[Festus]

35 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hopefully you don't live in the flood-prone areas of Manheim - lots of concern from area mets this morning about potentially significant stream flooding with each of the next several storms. 

Thank you for the sentiment.  I live on the outskirts of East Petersburg in East Hempfield Township with a Manheim Address.  On a bit of a hill so flooding is not an issue but wind on the other hand can be problematic.  Lost a tree in that epic July 2022 thunderstorm.  This doesn't look to be quite to that extent but the hatches will certainly be battened down.

[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Any snow weenie Steeler fans up for a snow chase/ playoff game could get a two for 1 special in Orchard Park this Sunday.

Not going to be going this weekend, but my wife and I are planning on seeing a Bills game in Orchard Park this coming fall. We want to experience Bills Mafia before they move into their new stadium. Likely planning on going in September or October before things start cranking off the lakes.   

It was awesome seeing all of the Terrible Towels in Nashville yesterday! Steelers fans in full force who made the drive down to root on the Titans. 

[mitchnick]

Icon getting agressive with the cold if not the snow in the medium range. The cold is still moving east, yet to reach the coast, and is a 1pm map too.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Festus said:

Thank you for the sentiment.  I live on the outskirts of East Petersburg in East Hempfield Township with a Manheim Address.  On a bit of a hill so flooding is not an issue but wind on the other hand can be problematic.  Lost a tree in that epic July 2022 thunderstorm.  This doesn't look to be quite to that extent but the hatches will certainly be battened down.

I know that area well. Still a lot of beautiful farmland flanking Landisville Road area north and south for a few miles. 

[pasnownut]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon getting agressive with the cold if not the snow in the medium range. The cold is still moving east, yet to reach the coast, and is a 1pm map too.

Some of our wester and norther folk may like the GEM for this weekend.  Snow map is deep.  

Also seeing GEM now is a miller B w/ transfer at 120 as cold press is a tad deeper and likely helping.  Not sure if that gains any momentum or not. GFS not to dissimilar w/ SLP placement but warmer, so there's that.   

[canderson]

Going to guess a lot of power outages in the MA/NE starting tomorrow. 60 mph winds for hours and 2" rain on ground already matured from snow melt is a disaster dream scenario. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Going to guess a lot of power outages in the MA/NE starting tomorrow. 60 mph winds for hours and 2" rain on ground already matured from snow melt is a disaster dream nightmare scenario. 

FYP

[anotherman]

Going to guess a lot of power outages in the MA/NE starting tomorrow. 60 mph winds for hours and 2" rain on ground already matured from snow melt is a disaster dream scenario. 

Yet no one knows about it. More people knew about the 2-4 inch snowfall days ahead of time.

[canderson]

Just now, pasnownut said:

FYP

Good fix. The NAM has 10m 71 mph gusts for Lancaster. 

It's a low-end tornado hitting overnight for hours. And then strong winds Wednesday evening, then maybe even stronger for the weekend. 

This is a bad, bad thing we're about to face. 

[canderson]

This is the NAM wind output. HRRR is quite a bit less (looks like maxing around 50 for LSV)

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Good fix. The NAM has 10m 71 mph gusts for Lancaster. 

It's a low-end tornado hitting overnight for hours. And then strong winds Wednesday evening, then maybe even stronger for the weekend. 

This is a bad, bad thing we're about to face. 

There will not be sustained 70+ mph gusts.  I hope.

[MAG5035]

My latest thoughts on tomorrow’s triple threat. 

Still trying to gauge the wind threat in the Sus Valley. CTP has a nice write up in their AFD this morning laying out their thoughts on it and the system as a whole. I personally think the threat of big winds (gusts in excess of 50-55mph) are going to be confined in that few hour period prior to and during the frontal passage.. where the Sus Valley may get into the warm sector and mix better gusts down. Don’t get me wrong it’ll be windy, but I dunno about excessive winds. That’s a different story in the coastal plain region and along the coastline. They did issue high wind watches in the Laurels, where the elevations will poke into some of that crazy low level jet. PIT also issued them on their side of the Laurel’s.. as this is one of those less common setups where downsloping winds are off the Pittsburgh facing front of the Alleghenies with the SE flow prior to FROPA. As for the behind the system I’m not super impressed with the winds other than the typical 30-40 gusts. We don’t really get a rapid pressure rise behind the front with this. 

Moving on, the biggest threat by far is becoming the flood threat, which I think was already the biggest potential issue at hand with this system here. MARFC flood products today really show the vulnerability with the widespread 1.5”-3” of QPF expected.

Additionally with the QPF forecasts.. a quick study of the waterways on MARFC’s headwater guidance show moderate flood stage pretty easily attainable across the board in the Sus Valley and Juniata basin waterways. 6 hr and 12hr numbers don’t differ very much either. On top of that, there’s roughly about 0.5-1.0” locked up in the snow on the ground as of this morning over a big part of C-PA. There’s definitely going to be issues that are likely going to be a more than the standard small streams/poor drainage variety with all that. 

 

And lastly, which will be firstly in terms of weather impacts.. we have the front end snow potential deeper in central PA, where AOO-UNV up into the north-central may well see advisory amounts in the morning/early afternoon before it changes to rain. This could in fact come down nearly as hard as it did on Saturday, which would make a mess of things on the roads first half of the day. Then all the rain on top, which could still be at least 1-1.5” if 0.5” gets put down as snow/mix. 

[canderson]

Great write up @MAG5035! Did you see Sterling said this?

The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind
records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb.

[mitchnick]

Hope you like cold and dry.

[MAG5035]

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Great write up @MAG5035! Did you see Sterling said this?

The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind
records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb.

That’s pretty wild, to go along with that they also mentioned record high integrated water vapor transport (vs climo) sourced from the Gulf and Atlantic. Might as well call that the east coast version of an atmospheric river. 

They did further on the wind threat, their reasoning highlighted below is primarily why I’m pumping the brakes some on excessive winds at the surface in the Sus Valley. If there in fact a squall line that develops with the front to our south, it’ll have to be watched to see if it gets into the southern LSV. By the way, great discos by LWX and CTP this morning. 

LWX

Quote

The main issue is going to be whether all of this wind mixes down to
the surface. Southerly wind events struggle to do this as warm air
aloft moving over a cooler surface airmass results in a stable
environment. However, given the strength and speed of this system,
strong pressure falls, and high precip rates, some of this wind
should mix down. The current thinking is winds gust to 40-50mph
along and east of I-95, with higher gusts possible along the
immediate Western Shore. A High Wind Watch has been issued for St.
Mary`s County, and this could be expanded north to other Western
Shore counties. Peak wind gusts occur between 4PM to 10PM Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Allegheny Front on Tuesday
morning as winds ahead of the surface low gusts to 50mph.

Severe: While the environment is expected to remain stable, there
could be a narrow line of convection from Fredericksburg area into
southern MD that could mix down those wind gusts in excess of 60mph.

 

[mitchnick]

Gfs operational looks like doo-doo, but there's a decent Gefs signal for the storm the Euro showed on 0z run. 24hr snowfall attached. Of course, the way things have gone over the last 2 years, Euro will probably pull it on 12z. Lol

[mahantango#1]

NWS can't make up their minds. This morning they my location getting 1-2 inches of rain. Now they dropped it down to half of that.

[mitchnick]

At 162 hrs, Euro looks more like the 12z Gfs than the 0z Euro at 174hrs. I'll assume that's not good until the rest of the run proves otherwise. 

[pasnownut]

Squall line much?

 

[mitchnick]

Euro is as bad as the rest in the medium range. Top is 0z and bottom is 12z. That is horrific performance by allegedly the best model on earth.

[Jns2183]

Squall line much?

 

That might be @canderson worst nightmare

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like MU might be punting the next 3 storms:

(1/2) Phew! In terms of wild weather, the next 7-10 days are shaping up to be downright crazy! There may not be much snow in the I-95 corridor, northern MD, or southeastern PA, but several "big storms" should impact the region with high winds & heavy rain..

(2/2) Don't put much stock in the exact path of the 12th-14th or 16th-18th systems yet, but a persistent storm track from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into SE Canada seems to be emerging & could certainly come to fruition. Expect talk of #flooding & high winds to be common.

I think the event being progged around the 16th has a decent shot of being something in the snow dept. The weekend system looks a lot like this one coming tomorrow, cutting to the lower lakes… with maybe some front end. That’s going to be the first system that starts bringing actual cold towards the east in its wake. Probably the coldest of the season to date, which isn’t really saying much. But that deep low hits the high latitude blocking and the 16th system coming fast in its wake is going to get forced under more. The difference with that system is the developing negative EPO/WPO regime AND a neutralizing PNA as there’s finally a bit of ridging that moves to the west coast. That’s going to push some of that arctic cold that originally dumps central/west this week to the east and theoretically.. the storm boundary.

Only caveat I see in the early going is that western ridge axis as progged would be a bit too far west for what we normally would want to see. But there’s at least some semblance of it and combined with the -NAO/AO and -EPO/WPO will eventually push the cold east. Next week looks like it could be a legit below average week temp wise… especially after whatever that 16th system does. 

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not going to be going this weekend, but my wife and I are planning on seeing a Bills game in Orchard Park this coming fall. We want to experience Bills Mafia before they move into their new stadium. Likely planning on going in September or October before things start cranking off the lakes.   

It was awesome seeing all of the Terrible Towels in Nashville yesterday! Steelers fans in full force who made the drive down to root on the Titans. 

I’ve been to Nashville several times but that’d be a fun place to go to an NFL game. And I think Nashville is also planning to eventually a build a new stadium further outside of downtown. I think it’s great as is, where you can walk from all the bars and such downtown across the bridge to the stadium. I haven’t been to a Steelers game since the 2011 AFC Championship game.. it was about 10ºF at kickoff for that one. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the event being progged around the 16th has a decent shot of being something in the snow dept. The weekend system looks a lot like this one coming tomorrow, cutting to the lower lakes… with maybe some front end. That’s going to be the first system that starts bringing actual cold towards the east in its wake. Probably the coldest of the season to date, which isn’t really saying much. But that deep low hits the high latitude blocking and the 16th system coming fast in its wake is going to get forced under more. The difference with that system is the developing negative EPO/WPO regime AND a neutralizing PNA as there’s finally a bit of ridging that moves to the west coast. That’s going to push some of that arctic cold that originally dumps central/west this week to the east.

Only caveat I see in the early going is that western ridge axis as progged would be a bit too far west for what we normally would want to see. But there’s at least some semblance of it and combined with the -NAO/AO and -EPO/WPO will eventually push the cold east. Next week looks like it could be a legit below average week temp wise… especially after whatever that 16th system does. 

I’ve been to Nashville several times but that’d be a fun place to go to an NFL game. And I think Nashville is also planning to eventually a build a new stadium further outside of downtown. I think it’s great as is, where you can walk from all the bars and such downtown across the bridge to the stadium. I haven’t been to a Steelers game since the 2011 AFC Championship game.. it was about 10ºF at kickoff for that one. 

You may have a legit shot for the event on the 16 or 17, but I  put my odds of seeing a 4"+ event (with or without a mix or change to rain) at 20% tops. I can see the writing on the wall based on prior years of following winter wx in the area, 1972-present. January is looking like a whole lot of threats and not a lot of substantial hits, if any; how I hope I'm wrong. February may be different, but it's too early to say.