Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: Dt was a piece of work on ne.weather. Fortunately, I knew what I was dealing with and his twisted humor and raw sarcasm. So I never had a problem with him and enjoyed his posts and knowledge. The key was after you inadvertently triggered him, just stay quiet. Lol Dude called me at home once. Weird..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At the start it was great. I would compare it to FB. Kids loved FB until whack people figured out it was there and then it went to hell. But the ne.weather and ne.weather.moderated groups spawned a lot of the people on this board. All I remember is the daily pest lists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, TheClimateChanger said: All I remember is the daily pest lists. Lol. The other JB. Joe Bartlo. RIP again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Lol. The other JB. Joe Bartlo. RIP again. That guy Jack tormented Joe Bartlo for no reason other than he could do it. Poor Joe was harmless. If anyone had a problem, I wouldn't have voted Joe as the one with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: That guy Jack tormented Joe Bartlo for no reason other than he could do it. Poor Joe was harmless. If anyone had a problem, I wouldn't have voted Joe as the one with it. I thought Joe was a great guy....though very eccentric. But he had the pests lists I thought. Jack was a troll. One of the early internet trolls. When this was going on, the "board" was melting down....a lot of fighting and I think we all participated in some of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I thought Joe was a great guy....though very eccentric. But he had the pests lists I thought. Jack was a troll. One of the early internet trolls. When this was going on, the "board" was melting down....a lot of fighting and I think we all participated in some of it. I happened to have a pm with Jack and found out he was from my hometown of Glen Burnie, MD He was just a typical, nasty redneck that place had an overabundance of and arguably still does. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I happened to have a pm with Jack and found out he was from my hometown of Glen Burnie, MD He was just a typical, nasty redneck that place had an overabundance of and arguably still does. Lol. TQ/Towering Q's is still around. He will not post here but runs a snow contest every year. Talk about your smart weather people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: TQ/Towering Q's is still around. He will not post here but runs a snow contest every year. Talk about your smart weather people. Yeah, he knew is stuff. My recollection is he wasn't a prolific poster, but always had great ones when he did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: Yeah, he knew is stuff. My recollection is he wasn't a prolific poster, but always had great ones when he did. He is still one of few words. Good memory. You remember so much more than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Lots of folks will swear that you cannot count on a global to properly deal with questionable thermal situations due to their lower resolution which can lead to smoothed over temp and Qpf outputs. That certainly has merit but outside the nams late save today, how did the high res meso's do? The HRRR at long range nailed the idea of massive warm air intrusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: The HRRR at long range nailed the idea of massive warm air intrusion. In fact, I even recall posting about the first run of the HRRR that showed that outcome and saying how we can’t rule it out and how it has sniffed out similar thermal issues at 48 hours before. I think someone even put a weenie symbol on my post haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The HRRR at long range nailed the idea of massive warm air intrusion. Yea, I had attributed that to you in another post. I remembered your post. It is a good example of each model having merit at some point. Let's face it, many here want snow and it is the natural human tendency to gravitate toward what gives you what you want. There are many, many examples where the hrrr 6 hours out was so wrong, it is laughable but today it ended up being valuable. That leads us to the real issue...how do we know when a model is going to excel when it is just as likely to falter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We now turn attention to a damaging 40 hour high wind event across the entire region. Oh and 3” rain that will flood waterways, roads and basements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, canderson said: We now turn attention to a damaging 40 hour high wind event across the entire region. Oh and 3” rain that will flood waterways, roads and basements. Those of us that did well today have a very water logged snow pack waiting to melt out as well. I think the drought denting is official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I had attributed that to you in another post. I remembered your post. It is a good example of each model having merit at some point. Let's face it, many here want snow and it is the natural human tendency to graduate toward what gives you what you want. There are many, many examples where the hrrr 6 hours out was so wrong, it is laughable but today it ended up being valuable. That leads us to the real issue...how do we know when a model is going to excel when it is just as likely to falter. Great post. The answer is….we don’t. That’s what makes this hobby so infuriating haha. But also, if the models were simply dead accurate all the time, we wouldn’t have this hobby. We all love it, even with all its flaws. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 There will be 80-90 mph winds Tuesday night at the 850mb - if we get heavy rain they could get mixed down. I think it’s going to be very bad for someone in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The 0z Canadian looks really interesting for next weekend for at least some front end snow for much of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 0z GFS is close for the 16th but it fizzles this run as it moves a little further east , but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Ended up with 2.0" of snow today...ending our 1" snow drought at 664 days....frosty took out the reindeer 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, canderson said: There will be 80-90 mph winds Tuesday night at the 850mb - if we get heavy rain they could get mixed down. I think it’s going to be very bad for someone in this forum. Batten down those trash cans...lol From what I saw on Facebook posts, friends (who don't know proper measuring procedures) were showing 8 to 11 inches in the Tamaqua and Lehighton areas, so I'm GUESSING my backyard got similar. My wife can't be bothered with measuring snow, so I'll never know the exact number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Like him or not He admitted he got it wrong. Hats off to DT!: Wxrisk.com Now where I did get things really wrong was in Western Maryland and in south central Pennsylvania or I thought that the cold air was going to hang in longer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of reported totals, do you have any way to contact CTP to ask them about MDT’s snow total today? I don’t have any special back channels to talk to any CTP mets unfortunately, other than just giving them a call. However, overnight CTP put a PNS out acknowledging the end of the snow drought at Harrisburg International and put out a snow total of 3.3” for yesterday from them. I’m sure it just came down to reporting times for their obs/climo like MGorse said but I’d like to think you broke into the airport property and took your own measurement lol. Quote 000 NOUS41 KCTP 070745 PNSCTP PAZ057-071145- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 245 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 ...THE SNOW DROUGHT AT HARRISBURG IS OVER... Harrisburg International Airport received 3.3 inches of snowfall yesterday, Jan 6th, 2024. It has been 345 days since the last measurable snowfall occurred at the Harrisburg observing site. The last snowfall of more than a trace was back on Jan 25th, 2023. This has been the longest string of consecutive days without measurable snowfall in Harrisburg. Continuous weather observations have been recorded since 1888 in Harrisburg. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Thoughts on this? Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. · TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING ARE GONNA SUCK.... MAX WINDS WILL GUST FROM 60 - 75MPH !!! Que up the Creedence Clearwater Revival.... 1-4 inches of rain... Seriously folks... recall the summer Drought? well force of nature are making up for it. Frankly he model data here is kind of freaking me the hell out !! Expect significant power outages and if the power outage is a widespread the loss of power could be prolonged in some areas. Maybe it won't be but you know it is winter and it does get really cold at night without power Locations that typically flood and have flooded in the past few weeks will definitely flood again and that's especially true in New England and New York State. areas in New York Pennsylvania New England which got significant snowfall on Saturday. Rapid temperature rise on howling South winds Tuesday afternoon and evening will cause all that snow to melt very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I don’t have any special back channels to talk to any CTP mets unfortunately, other than just giving them a call. However, overnight CTP put a PNS out acknowledging the end of the snow drought at Harrisburg International and put out a snow total of 3.3” for yesterday from them. I’m sure it just came down to reporting times for their obs/climo like MGorse said but I’d like to think you broke into the airport property and took your own measurement lol. Yes, they got it right with the 3.3” of snow for yesterday at MDT officially with the Overnight final Daily Climate Summary. Lol, I didn’t go down to the airport! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foo Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Measured 7.5 inches of snow on the grass and 6.5 inches on the driveway here in Pottsville. Switched to sleet/freezing rain around 9pm. Temp still at 32 as of 30 minutes ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We still have the chance for a little front end snow next weekend, but most models have storm cutting for the lakes & bringing good snow to the Midwest. Still time for changes, but the best hope with this storm next weekend is to improve the front end with a flatter track that doesn’t gain much as much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The GFS likes the period just after next weekend on the 16th with a storm tracking to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: Like him or not He admitted he got it wrong. Hats off to DT!: Wxrisk.com Now where I did get things really wrong was in Western Maryland and in south central Pennsylvania or I thought that the cold air was going to hang in longer The EC let him down too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 58 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Thoughts on this? Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. · TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING ARE GONNA SUCK.... MAX WINDS WILL GUST FROM 60 - 75MPH !!! Que up the Creedence Clearwater Revival.... 1-4 inches of rain... Seriously folks... recall the summer Drought? well force of nature are making up for it. Frankly he model data here is kind of freaking me the hell out !! Expect significant power outages and if the power outage is a widespread the loss of power could be prolonged in some areas. Maybe it won't be but you know it is winter and it does get really cold at night without power Locations that typically flood and have flooded in the past few weeks will definitely flood again and that's especially true in New England and New York State. areas in New York Pennsylvania New England which got significant snowfall on Saturday. Rapid temperature rise on howling South winds Tuesday afternoon and evening will cause all that snow to melt very quickly. 8 hours ago, canderson said: There will be 80-90 mph winds Tuesday night at the 850mb - if we get heavy rain they could get mixed down. I think it’s going to be very bad for someone in this forum. The flood threat’s there for sure, with modeling and ensembles across the board indicative of 1.5-2+” of QPF across all of C-PA and the Sus valley. Sus Valley and SE PA would be the primary focus area for flooding in PA, where recent antecedent conditions are already fairly wet and temps will have the biggest surge ahead of the frontal passage and expedite melting of whatever snow has fallen to go with the significant rain. York/Lancaster look to be in WPC’s “slight risk” for excessive rainfall while about the eastern half or so of PA is in the “marginal”. Wind is another story. Despite the extremely impressive low level southerly jet, cold/cool air damming and steady moderate/heavy rain is likely going to provide a stable boundary layer most everywhere east of the Laurels for at least a good portion of the pre frontal passage portion of the event. Those screaming winds won’t mix down with that. I think for the Sus valley any wind issues that become more than the typical “breezy”variety (maybe some 30-35 gusts) is going to heavily depend on busting into the warm sector. That provides the means to mix higher winds to the ground and a line of showers/storms associated with FROPA would definitely have the potential to bring damaging winds. CTP talked winds in their AFD and only really discussed potential high wind watch for the Laurel’s for now.. where elevation (higher elevations near the 925mb layer) would catch the higher gusts from the southerly jet. Their confidence on 50kt gusts to necessitate a high wind warning in C-PA is low right now. The really serious winds are more likely along the coastal plain and coastal areas up the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic up into New England. Modeled winds on the backside of the system aren’t super impressive, def breezy (30-45 gusts) but not sure about headline worthy.. at least in terms of the high wind warning variety. Lastly there is a winter weather impact aspect to this too. Not for the majority of the sub-forum demographic, but in the interior counties of central PA. Most guidance has been pretty firm on a period of accumulating snow/sleet in the AOO/UNV/north central PA realm, turning to a mix/ZR and then rain. NAM was warmer aloft but still has a several hour period of mixed precip (more ZR dominant). Either way, I expect advisories to be needed for the aforementioned portion of C-PA. CTP disco Quote .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The focus for the next few days will be on a potent southern stream trough lifting out of the Southern Plains. All medium range guidance tracks this feature and the associated deepening surface low west of PA through the Grt Lks Tuesday PM into Wednesday. A blocking high over New England may supply enough cold air for an initial wintry mix. However, max wet bulb temps aloft rise well above 0C by Tuesday evening, as an anomalous (+4SD) southerly low level jet pivots through the state. A deep plume of GOMEX moisture overrunning the retreating low level stable airmass should result in a moderate to heavy rainfall, with an accompanying flood risk. Latest ensemble prob charts indicate the eastern half of the forecast area will be most susceptible with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible, combined with melting snow. MMEFS (NAEFS and GEFS) shows numerous river points across the eastern part of the forecast area with 30-70% prob of reaching minor flood stages by Wed AM. The most vulnerable locations will be the Lower Susquehanna Mainstem and tributaries (i.e. Conodoguinet Creek, Swatara Creek, and Sherman Creek). Strong, gusty winds will be a concern for parts of Central PA on Tuesday into Wednesday as the surface low bombs out across the Great Lakes. Gradient winds ahead of the approaching low will produce strong southeasterly winds across the higher elevations in the Laurels and northern mountains. Gusty winds are also possible across southeast PA where guidance indicates the potential of breaking into the warm sector ahead of an approaching occluded front. Winds will shift around to westerly during the day on Wednesday as the low passes to the north. Current EPS guidance shows a 60% chance of exceeding advisory criteria across the aforementioned zones (everywhere except the central ridge/valley region). We may need a high wind watch for the Laurels or northern tier, but consensus is to let this slide until we have more confidence in at least high-end advy gusts. We`re not quite to 50% confidence on anyone in Central PA getting 50KT gusts. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Major bust up here too in Williamsport. Montoursville Airport and rest of Lycoming County didn't even hit 4" when yesterday the ranges were something like 6-12 I think. One report was under 3"! Honestly I am relieved though. I got one of the viruses going around Saturday before Christmas, it is still hanging around and i am not in the mood for picking my way through snow and ice. I can only thank God the rain on Tuesday and moderate temps should get rid of this pretty quickly. So I am sitting here very grateful things worked out as they did. But really surprised too, considering how far north we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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