Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ok, let's use the Euro operational. 3-3.5" I did not mean to sound negative vs. Inquisative on finding value from an ensemble so close to game time but yea the euro op must have underestimated the warm push. If that rain we got (or sleet) had been snow then this map may be under done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I did not mean to sound negative vs. Inquisative on finding value from an ensemble so close to game time but yea the euro op must have underestimated the warm push. If that rain we got (or sleet) had been snow then this map may be under done. I said to my wife earlier that had the extended period of sleet been snow (recall you posted that you were surprised by the sleet), and then we turned to rain as progged, the models would have been very good. All of them but the Nams missed an apparent thin layer of warming that caused the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I said to my wife earlier that had the extended period of sleet been snow (recall you posted that you were surprised by the sleet), and then we turned to rain as progged, the models would have been very good. All of them but the Nams missed an apparent thin layer of warming that caused the sleet. That is what the nams are good at from history of these marginal situations. It took them until the last minute though. They were doing their namming's last night. Lol. I was very surprised by all the sleet and glad the nws said as such too. Makes me think even more was modeled incorrectly. I may be off in saying this but how often do we get a properly modeled snowstorm anymore? For me, the mystery keeps me engaged some. What did they mess up this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The CTP website says daily climate summary as of 5 pm. I see that you are a Meteorologist & your name sounds familiar. Do you work for the National Weather Service? If you have any contacts at CTP, I would love to know if this is their official total for MDT or will they adjust it tonight with the final Daily Climate Summary overnight? I work at NWS Mount Holly. When we run our late afternoon climate, the daily snowfall is through 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That is what the nams are good at from history of these marginal situations. It took them until the last minute though. They were doing their namming's last night. Lol. I was very surprised by all the sleet and glad the nws said as such too. Makes me think even more was modeled incorrectly. I may be off in saying this but how often do we get a properly modeled snowstorm anymore? For me, the mystery keeps me engaged some. What did they mess up this time? I witcha'. I don't care what 500mb statistics show, the Euro pre-2018 update was a superior model than what we have now of all modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: I witcha'. I don't care what 500mb statistics show, the Euro pre-2018 update was a superior model than what we have now of all modeling. Amen to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Steady rain and 32. I got around 6” snow so very lucky but this still blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just blew my drive off, nice blowing snow. Only 3” I just measured...This Storm was quite the underachiever. Not complaining just less work Canderson them mixed snows are a Pita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I witcha'. I don't care what 500mb statistics show, the Euro pre-2018 update was a superior model than what we have now of all modeling. 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Amen to that Does anyone remember what the euro was showing for the Jan 2000 surprise snow? Almost nothing showed what happened but different suites were different levels of wrong. I was heavily involved in tracking it (Mitchnick probably was as well) but I truly do not remember euro watching with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Does anyone remember what the euro was showing for the Jan 2000 surprise snow? Almost nothing showed what happened but different suites were different levels of wrong. I was heavily involved in tracking it (Mitchnick probably was as well) but I truly do not remember euro watching with it. I do not. I was in Rehoboth Beach for a winter vacation that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I do not. I was in Rehoboth Beach for a winter vacation that week. It was 24 years ago but do you remember being surprised that a bombing low, which was was supposed to escape, came knocking at your beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Does anyone remember what the euro was showing for the Jan 2000 surprise snow? Almost nothing showed what happened but different suites were different levels of wrong. I was heavily involved in tracking it (Mitchnick probably was as well) but I truly do not remember euro watching with it. Bubb was that the storm that Nam was king. Everyone thought Nam was out to lunch, but held steady for the win. It was one of them storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Does anyone remember what the euro was showing for the Jan 2000 surprise snow? Almost nothing showed what happened but different suites were different levels of wrong. I was heavily involved in tracking it (Mitchnick probably was as well) but I truly do not remember euro watching with it. Yes, I was tracking it on ne.weather with Stormtracker. You were there too at that time too if I recall. My recollection is that all modeling was keying on a different vort max that was to come 2 days later. But the problem with that storm was missing data along the SE coast. When they got that ingested into the 0z 1/25/00 runs, everything caved to what me, Stormtracker, and every other weenie believed earlier in the day...it was coming north for a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Bubb was that the storm that Nam was king. Everyone thought Nam was out to lunch, but held steady for the win. It was one of them storms. It was not the only one that nam was king but I am not even sure the nam nailed it. Maybe it did....I stayed up all night watching the miracle happen but 24 years has worn away at the what I used to know. Might have to do some review. This whole topic and mitchnick's comment about the new euro. If someone unknowledagble about models asked me to tell them which on was really "King" I would have a hard time picking any of them. They all struggle at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, MGorse said: I work at NWS Mount Holly. When we run our late afternoon climate, the daily snowfall is through 18z. Great, thanks for the response! Hopefully the full accurate measurement for MDT gets recorded for the event on the final Daily Climate Summary overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It was 24 years ago but do you remember being surprised that a bombing low, which was was supposed to escape, came knocking at your beach? I remember the day before the storm, Rehoboth was to get 1-3" and pretty much nothing north of Sussex County. Ended up getting more at home than at the shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 ne.weather is still available to seach, but it looks like posting ends next month. It became a real terlet of humanity. Lol https://groups.google.com/g/ne.weather?pli=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yes, I was tracking it on ne.weather with Stormtracker. You were there too at that time too if I recall. My recollection is that all modeling was keying on a different vort max that was to come 2 days later. But the problem with that storm was missing data along the SE coast. When they got that ingested into the 0z 1/25/00 runs, everything caved to what me, Stormtracker, and every other weenie believed earlier in the day...it was coming north for a hit. I was there. Scott Simard and I were telling anyone that would listen that we had to watch the situation. I wish I remembered more about that night and the days leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: ne.weather is still available to seach, but it looks like posting ends next month. It became a real terlet of humanity. Lol https://groups.google.com/g/ne.weather?pli=1 It became an embarassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was there. Scott Simard and I were telling anyone that would listen that we had to watch the situation. I wish I remembered more about that night and the days leading up to it. Scott Simard was the man back in the day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: ne.weather is still available to seach, but it looks like posting ends next month. It became a real terlet of humanity. Lol https://groups.google.com/g/ne.weather?pli=1 PS-I did not know Ralph Wiggum was "the" Steve b from back then. Just found out this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, paweather said: Scott Simard was the man back in the day! RIP. Psu on the MA board reminds me of Scott though PSU is less edgy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: RIP. Psu on the MA board reminds me of Scott though PSU is less edgy. Yeah RIP for sure and your right PSU definitely reminds me of Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I witcha'. I don't care what 500mb statistics show, the Euro pre-2018 update was a superior model than what we have now of all modeling.It seemed to do better with track but QPF was all sorts of wrongSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: ne.weather is still available to seach, but it looks like posting ends next month. It became a real terlet of humanity. Lol https://groups.google.com/g/ne.weather?pli=1 That's the old usenet group, right? That place was always whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Jns2183 said: It seemed to do better with track but QPF was all sorts of wrong Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Lots of folks will swear that you cannot count on a global to properly deal with questionable thermal situations due to their lower resolution which can lead to smoothed over temp and Qpf outputs. That certainly has merit but outside the nams late save today, how did the high res meso's do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: That's the old usenet group, right? That place was always whack. At the start it was great. I would compare it to FB. Kids loved FB until whack people figured out it was there and then it went to hell. But the ne.weather and ne.weather.moderated groups spawned a lot of the people on this board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Lots of folks will swear that you cannot count on a global to properly deal with questionable thermal situations due to their lower resolution which can lead to smoothed over temp and Qpf outputs. That certainly has merit but outside the nams late save today, how did the high res meso's do? Thing is, I hear a lot of people saying the Euro has superior thermals due to higher resolution. Idk, I firmly believe they tweaked the Euro to its death as we all knew it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Dt was a piece of work on ne.weather. Fortunately, I knew what I was dealing with and his twisted humor and raw sarcasm. So I never had a problem with him and enjoyed his posts and knowledge. The key was after you inadvertently triggered him, just stay quiet. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Thing is, I hear a lot of people saying the Euro has superior thermals due to higher resolution. Idk, I firmly believe they tweaked the Euro to its death as we all knew it. Except my anti ensemble rant recently, much of which is in jest because of the back and forth with blizz and I, I think they all have their positive sides and strong suits. My first winter back (18-19) we had a series of storms that would cut and bring front end snow and ice to this area and the icon was uncanny in predicting their eventual tracks....better than any of the other globals. So, when people mock the icon it rubs me sometimes as no one seems to remember when it had that strong winter. I think we can all point out times most models had strong showing...just today someone, I think mjs, Hailed the hrrr for its long rang accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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