MGorse Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Also, more fake news is the snow depth of 0 at 5 pm! The snow depth in the climate report is at 12z (7 AM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just changed to rain. Currently sitting at 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is an absolute joke…! How in the heck did MDT only record 2.0 inches of snow today at the 5 pm summary. They had .42 of precip through 5 pm. Did someone look out of the air traffic control tower & phone in to CTP & say, “it looks like 2 inches Bob”!?!??! Hopefully this gets corrected on the official oversight daily summary. There is absolutely no darn way they had 2 inches of snow MDT on .42 of precip. That may have been the total through 18z (1 PM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 MDT measurement seems a little low...not sure it's that far off. I'm not that far away and only had a few extra tenths; however, my temp fluctuated between 31 and 32 while it snowed. Looks like MDT was running 33-34? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, MGorse said: That may have been the total through 18z (1 PM). The CTP website says daily climate summary as of 5 pm. I see that you are a Meteorologist & your name sounds familiar. Do you work for the National Weather Service? If you have any contacts at CTP, I would love to know if this is their official total for MDT or will they adjust it tonight with the final Daily Climate Summary overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The CTP website says daily climate summary as of 5 pm. I see that you are a Meteorologist & your name sounds familiar. Do you work for the National Weather Service? If you have any contacts at CTP, I would love to know if this is their official total for MDT or will they adjust it tonight with the final Daily Climate Summary overnight? I don’t know him personally, but he’s a good guy Mgorse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Penndot didn’t even plow 83 or 81 it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MDT measurement seems a little low...not sure it's that far off. I'm not that far away and only had a few extra tenths; however, my temp fluctuated between 31 and 32 while it snowed. Looks like MDT was running 33-34? Yes, they were at 33 for much of the heavy snow. I would be ok with a little under 10-1, but 2.0 of snow on .42 of precip is less than 5-1 ratio. A snow total with a 3 in front of it would understandable, but not a 2.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Mount Joy Snowman @Superstorm one thing just struck me - one big failure on virtually every model was the predicted sharp contrast across the county. All of us ended up within a couple of tenths of an inch. Interesting. Boy you ain’t kiddin. There was no battle; the warm air simply won out, as it so often does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Been pretty much done with the heavier stuff back this way for the last couple hours, but have transitioned to freezing drizzle and some occasional pingers. Still just a hair under 28ºF. 6.2” was my reported total snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Boy you ain’t kiddin. There was no battle; the warm air simply won out, as it so often does. Yeah, it moved in fast.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOTS of snow chances on the 18Z GFS. I saw in the MA forum DT thinks the 18z Gfs is wrong next weekend and blocking will push the system further south threatening us. Then again, DT is in love with the Euro, sooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Yeah, it moved in fast. . Whereabouts do you live Superstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Boy you ain’t kiddin. There was no battle; the warm air simply won out, as it so often does. I think the lesson I took away was the when the Nam twins are the snowiest model, they have a 98% chance of being wrong. When they are the warmest (in the winter with snowstorm threats), they are likely correct. Jmho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Been pretty much done with the heavier stuff back this way for the last couple hours, but have transitioned to freezing drizzle and some occasional pingers. Still just a hair under 28ºF. 6.2” was my reported total snowfall. Speaking of reported totals, do you have any way to contact CTP to ask them about MDT’s snow total today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of reported totals, do you have any way to contact CTP to ask them about MDT’s snow total today? Cash is your person 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I saw in the MA forum DT thinks the 18z Gfs is wrong next weekend and blocking will push the system further south threatening us. Then again, DT is in love with the Euro, sooooo. I just love the active southern stream. Kind of ignoring specifics outside this once coming in 3 days which is a damage threat I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Raining in Allentown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cash is your person I try to keep my hands clean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Here's my latest update from Carlisle. Around 5:30, after a half hour of mainly sleet, a transition to freezing rain took place. Once that happened the temperature of 30.4 degrees began to slowly rise. For the next 2 hours light freezing rain fell creating a very thin glaze on most surfaces. I'll have a measurement a little later. I'm estimating that around 0.10-0.15" of liquid fell. At approximately 7:30 the temperature had risen to 32.0. Since then the temp has only risen a small amount, stopping at 32.4 degrees. I'll have a summary later this evening or tomorrow morning for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Whereabouts do you live Superstorm? Right near Willow Street where all the retired folks live (Willow Valley).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Ended up with 5.8”. Just finished all my plowing. A friend told me my report was on the weather channel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Fyi, I love the 18z Eps. It had already turned to sleet imby BEFORE 1PM, yet the Eps 10:1 said I should expect almost 4" to fall after 1pm. Can't make this up. Eps are probably the most respected guidance, which is even more troubling. I'm sure it did ok for some, but it never seems to treat me right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Coop_Mason said: Ended up with 5.8”. Just finished all my plowing. A friend told me my report was on the weather channel. The whole group of western Lsv or near people all ended up within less than 1/2" of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: Fyi, I love the 18z Eps. It had already turned to sleet imby BEFORE 1PM, yet the Eps 10:1 said I should expect almost 4" to fall after 1pm. Can't make this up. Eps are probably the most respected guidance, which is even more troubling. I'm sure it did ok for some, but it never seems to treat me right. I just do not know how you can use an ensemble mean to forecast snow. It is almost always going to be wrong imo. Low resolution models all being fed alternate data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: I try to keep my hands clean. Lol, I just want to have someone kindly ask the question to confirm that they got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I just do not know how you can use an ensemble mean to forecast snow. It is almost always going to be wrong imo. Low resolution models all being fed alternate data. The ensembles were terrible for here with this storm. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Hey, Central PA Weather friends! I've been following what's going on and was hoping the Lancaster county crew would luck out and get more. This storm is a reminder of why I searched for a snowier destination. I can't believe you guys had less than a few inches of snow total last year. Geesh! Hopefully you can join in more on other systems this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The whole group of western Lsv or near people all ended up within less than 1/2" of each other. No kidding. Pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I just do not know how you can use an ensemble mean to forecast snow. It is almost always going to be wrong imo. Low resolution models all being fed alternate data. Ok, let's use the Euro operational. 3-3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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