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Central PA Winter 23/24


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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Moderate to heavy snow just morphed into a light rain/mist here in less than a minute's time. 1.9" total snow so far.

Hopefully you flip back to get a little more snow when the rates pick back up. Radar is super juiced in MD & PA southern tier.

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

An additional 1.5” has fallen here in the last two hours, bringing the storm total to 2.0”. Sitting at 31/30 and sleet starting to mix in when rates let up. 

I assumed I would see sleet when it let up, but it's plain light rain here.

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Hoping to flip back when heavy returns come back. I can see CC being fought back a bit.


.

CC line was never really close to me and yet…..here I am sitting under sleet. Would love one more bout of snow under intense rates but I doubt it. We know how this usually goes. 

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Great recent update from CTP

“NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** Very heavy snowfall rates expected across the region for 3-4
 hours this afternoon into early this evening ***

Primary emphasis remains on a several hour period of very heavy
snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour (and perhaps even 3
inches per hour rates for a brief time) progressing northeast
across the CWA this afternoon and early this evening.

Strong uvvel via a combination of WAA and FGEN forcing at the
nose of a 40-50 kt south-serly LLJ and beneath the right
entrance region of an upper lvl jet streak will support an
approx 2-3 hour period of intense snowfall rates with still
0.5-1 inch per hour snowfall rates bracketing this period on
both sides. That will be the bulk of the snowstorm. A quick-
hitting intense variety that will make travel and plowing
extremely difficult for those several hours.

The period of heaviest snowfall for our SW Zones will conclude
by 22Z, while the region from KBFD to KUNV and KMDT/KLNS
will see the heaviest snow between 20Z and 00Z Sun, and 22Z
Sat-02Z Sunday for KIPT and the Western Poconos. Vsbys in the
heart of these time intervals will be as low as just a few
hundred feet.

3-5 inches of snow has already fallen across the Laurel
Highlands as of 19Z and there is another 2-3 hours of 1+ inch
per hour snowfall rates ahead, with lingering lighter snow
afterward. This will be representative of what we`ll see across
the Central 2/3rds of the CWA later this afternoon and evening
and our current forecast snow totals look in great shape. The
toughest forecast remains close to the I-81 corridor in Scent PA
where the max wet bulb aloft reaches 0C to +1 C. This slightly
above freezing layer aloft may not be thick enough to support
melting (usually need about +1-2C aloft to support a true
changeover to sleet. What we may see is periods of significant
snowflake aggregation and rapid accums of these larger flakes.
We could easily see Warning Criteria snowfall of 5-8 inches
over the northern 1/3 of York County with Advisory amounts of
3-4 inches in the southern part of the county with a similar
occurrence NW to SE across Lancaster County. A very tough call
with just how thick and how far NW the melting layer aloft will
get.

Temps at mid afternoon remain within a fairly tight 5 deg F
range between 28 deg F (across much of the Central, NW Mtns and
Laurel Highlands), to 31-33F over the Lower Susq Valley.

Extrapolation of the back edge of the thicker, textured seeder
feeder clouds (Moving NE at 45 KTS) will be near a KBFD to KUNV
and KHGR line around 23Z and across the Susq Valley and points
NE between 00-01Z Sunday. Snowfall rates will rapidly decrease
afterward with some areas of -FZDZ possible, esp across the SE
half of the state.”
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At 3:00pm here in Carlisle, it is snowing heavily.  Since 2:15 I have recorded an additional 0.8" for a storm total of 3.3".  So the intensity is running around 1.2"/hr.  The temp is still holding at 29.8 degrees with a dew point of 28.9 and a wet bulb of 29.3.  Looking forward to the 4-6pm period of really intense snowfall.

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:
Great recent update from CTP

“NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** Very heavy snowfall rates expected across the region for 3-4
 hours this afternoon into early this evening ***

Primary emphasis remains on a several hour period of very heavy
snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour (and perhaps even 3
inches per hour rates for a brief time) progressing northeast
across the CWA this afternoon and early this evening.

Strong uvvel via a combination of WAA and FGEN forcing at the
nose of a 40-50 kt south-serly LLJ and beneath the right
entrance region of an upper lvl jet streak will support an
approx 2-3 hour period of intense snowfall rates with still
0.5-1 inch per hour snowfall rates bracketing this period on
both sides. That will be the bulk of the snowstorm. A quick-
hitting intense variety that will make travel and plowing
extremely difficult for those several hours.

The period of heaviest snowfall for our SW Zones will conclude
by 22Z, while the region from KBFD to KUNV and KMDT/KLNS
will see the heaviest snow between 20Z and 00Z Sun, and 22Z
Sat-02Z Sunday for KIPT and the Western Poconos. Vsbys in the
heart of these time intervals will be as low as just a few
hundred feet.

3-5 inches of snow has already fallen across the Laurel
Highlands as of 19Z and there is another 2-3 hours of 1+ inch
per hour snowfall rates ahead, with lingering lighter snow
afterward. This will be representative of what we`ll see across
the Central 2/3rds of the CWA later this afternoon and evening
and our current forecast snow totals look in great shape. The
toughest forecast remains close to the I-81 corridor in Scent PA
where the max wet bulb aloft reaches 0C to +1 C. This slightly
above freezing layer aloft may not be thick enough to support
melting (usually need about +1-2C aloft to support a true
changeover to sleet. What we may see is periods of significant
snowflake aggregation and rapid accums of these larger flakes.
We could easily see Warning Criteria snowfall of 5-8 inches
over the northern 1/3 of York County with Advisory amounts of
3-4 inches in the southern part of the county with a similar
occurrence NW to SE across Lancaster County. A very tough call
with just how thick and how far NW the melting layer aloft will
get.

Temps at mid afternoon remain within a fairly tight 5 deg F
range between 28 deg F (across much of the Central, NW Mtns and
Laurel Highlands), to 31-33F over the Lower Susq Valley.

Extrapolation of the back edge of the thicker, textured seeder
feeder clouds (Moving NE at 45 KTS) will be near a KBFD to KUNV
and KHGR line around 23Z and across the Susq Valley and points
NE between 00-01Z Sunday. Snowfall rates will rapidly decrease
afterward with some areas of -FZDZ possible, esp across the SE
half of the state.”

Even they say the warm layer is too shallow for a lot of sleet....yet.

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