Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 061647Z - 062145Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly across south-central PA. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward. Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across central NC and southeast VA. These factors will result in an area of strong low-level frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD, and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the shortwave continues northeastward. That makes it sound like double digit totals are coming for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 061647Z - 062145Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly across south-central PA. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward. Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across central NC and southeast VA. These factors will result in an area of strong low-level frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD, and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the shortwave continues northeastward. Bring it …. LFG !!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Turning back to snow now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Inefficient accumulation here early on with temps waffling between 32 and 33 and a DP up to 30. Hoping we squeeze in a big thump sometime between 1-4pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That makes it sound like double digit totals are coming for someone. Keep talking dirty…. Sorry…. I am grinning from ear to ear! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That makes it sound like double digit totals are coming for someone. Well it's certainly bringing optimism that we're tracking to hit the expectations, anything over 4" here and I'm gonna be content, 6+ and I'll be tickled. HRRR has been pretty generous in nowcasting today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Well it's certainly bringing optimism that we're tracking to hit the expectations, anything over 4" here and I'm gonna be content, 6+ and I'll be tickled. HRRR has been pretty generous in nowcasting today. The more the low over NC controls the flow vs the dying west energy (they called it a trough on the discussion) the better chance us westerners have of not flipping. As you said, move the winds away from south...and cash had NE winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The more the low over NC includes the flow vs the dying energy (they called it a trough on the discussion) the better chance us westerners have of not flipping. As you said, move the winds away from south...and cash had NE winds. I certainly don't mind the energy consolidating to the ENE/NE moving LP center and if it stays at the VA/NC border, let's get it matured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snowing heavily now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 WSW update to list 6-8" totals for us via CTP, like seeing that. Also mentioned 2"/hr rates through 6PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 And just like that back to Snizzle. 30/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: WSW update to list 6-8" totals for us via CTP, like seeing that. Also mentioned 2"/hr rates through 6PM. Also mentions localized amounts of 9-10” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At 12:00 noon here in Carlisle...moderate snow continues to fall. Intensity varied between moderate and light during the past hour. Intensity is definitely back up to at or just above 0.5" / hr. During the past hour 0.5" of new snow has accumulated, bringing the storm total to 0.7". Temperature has remained steady close to 30 degrees. The dew point is now 29 degrees and the wet bulb is 29.7 degrees. It looks like the real heavy snow is slowly approaching from the south. We'll see how this next hour pans out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Not sure we see a ton of sleet up here in PA. Seems the snow would be melting at 850/900 and there is not hyper frozen area it will travel through from that point. Not my expertise but feels more like a rain or snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snowing lightly finally in Elysburg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Coop_Mason said: Also mentions localized amounts of 9-10” I think they had to when doing the math around their verbiage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not sure we see a ton of sleet up here in PA. Seems the snow would be melting at 850/900 and there is not hyper frozen area it will travel through from that point. Not my expertise but feels more like a rain or snow situation. Now that we have a handle on where 800/925 temps are and the location of the low, I am optimistic this won't land on the bust end. It'll either deliver as we hoped or potentially boom for some. Further east, the column is questionable into York & Lancaster counties where theres less influence from the cold wedge and a warm nose in the mid levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Latest HRR is slightly more favorable for the SE LSV folks who are not getting much accums right now...delays the big mix/rain push an hour or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Update from Carlisle...intensity has ramped up and it is now snowing heavily for the first time of this storm. Est. rate is now easily 1" / hr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Sn+ here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Update from Carlisle...intensity has ramped up and it is now snowing heavily for the first time of this storm. Est. rate is now easily 1" / hr. Great to hear, similar story here. Would put rates over 1”/hr and vis down to about 1/8mi. vis is always low here being on the side of the hill next to jacks mountain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Starting to get heavier in HBG. Had been petty inefficient for the last 45 or so mins and was melting more than sticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Latest HRR is slightly more favorable for the SE LSV folks who are not getting much accums right now...delays the big mix/rain push an hour or so. Yeah if you squint hard enough the recent HRRR runs have been getting slightly better for northwestern Lancaster County. Gonna be a real war over here come 4-6pm, me thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sn+ here now. Same. Heaviest so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Flake size & rates picked up in the last 30 minutes in Marysville. Roads caved & all surfaces covered. The good stuff is still over to my southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Moderate or better here. I'm hugging the 2 Nams and betting heavy on the contrarian trade. Hope I don't lose my shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Moderate or better here. I'm hugging the 2 Nams and betting heavy on the contrarian trade. Hope I don't lose my shirt. I think you beat the silly NAM's, radar and temps don't look too bad. Flow starting to shift away from due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Family in Etters said they have less than 1/2 inch.....snow mostly melting there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 22 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: Also mentions localized amounts of 9-10” Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1156 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 PAZ011-012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063- 064-070300- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240107T0300Z/ Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 1156 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 6 to 8 inches. * WHERE...The Central Mountains of Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Through 10 PM EST this Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the afternoon and early evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will fall heavily at times between noon and 6 pm, with snowfall rates as high as 2 inches per hour. Much lighter snow will fall after 7 pm. Localized snow totals could reach 9 or 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1156 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 PAZ011-012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063- 064-070300- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240107T0300Z/ Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 1156 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 6 to 8 inches. * WHERE...The Central Mountains of Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Through 10 PM EST this Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the afternoon and early evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will fall heavily at times between noon and 6 pm, with snowfall rates as high as 2 inches per hour. Much lighter snow will fall after 7 pm. Localized snow totals could reach 9 or 10 inches. CTP ramping up at game time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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