mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Bubbler, HRRR 12z run has finally stopped treating us as the enemy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Made it to the news! Lol! (On right)Seeing this mornings runs introduce a good amount of sleet here in the Lehigh Valley now…. Right on cue . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Hopefully CTP has the MDT observer ready to get us an accurate snow total today. Lol, What’s the jet traffic like today at MDT ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully CTP has the MDT observer ready to get us an accurate snow total today. Lol, What’s the jet traffic like today at MDT ? Maybe Canderson can get snow measurements at MDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Sky looks like sleet here with the higher, smooth cloud deck. I won't be surprised if there's sleet to start. Radar shows heavy echos in WV headed our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 41 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Maybe Canderson can get snow measurements at MDT. I was thinking of @Mount Joy Snowman He is one of our best numbers guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 @Coop_Mason Please make sure CTP has MDT ready today to measure well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snow just started at the M/D line in Smithsburg, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z Nam. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3k Nam. Looks like a completely different model from its 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I justcrealized the Nam maps are 10:1. Kuchie are even worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Good luck today, all. May the odds forever be in your favor. O’ll be pleased if I get more than 2.5”. I will call that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bubbler, HRRR 12z run has finally stopped treating us as the enemy. I am out and some pretty extreme temp deviations. 33-35 in the valley/waynesboro and Quincy....down to 27 in Fayetteville just slightly north. I see we got anti-nammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If the Nam twins are close to being right, that's an absolute failure of all modeling across the board. I have a hard time believing everything up to 6z was wrong, including 12z HRRR that increased totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Well, my handbook says it’s now casting time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If the Nam twins are close to being right, that's an absolute failure of all modeling across the board. I have a hard time believing everything up to 6z was wrong, including 12z HRRR that increased totals. The NAM is the worst model for QPF output and evolution of any that exist, it only really can be reliable for thermals and MOS type guidance on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Still 27/21 here in Carroll Valley. Not too bad in the T/DP department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 29/25 in Marysville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I justcrealized the Nam maps are 10:1. Kuchie are even worse. Looks like sleet/zr is impacting NAM totals particularly in MD/LSV. It will be telling how long the snow holds on down your way. PS: appreciate all the reports from this group. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12z Nam. Lol Honestly...truly...and what I have honesty thought for days now, that looks like a map that I would create for this event. I do think that Cashtown and maybe Bubbler up to Carlisle does a little better than that, but I would not be surprised if that map is close for a lot of us. Including the greater Harrisburg area. Ready to eat crow as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Feels like snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snow underway here in Carroll Valley, 28 degrees. Not mixing at the moment 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25.5/20ºF and cloudy here. Snowboard deployed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully CTP has the MDT observer ready to get us an accurate snow total today. Lol, What’s the jet traffic like today at MDT ? Narrator: the observer was, in fact, not ready to go. 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I was thinking of @Mount Joy Snowman He is our one of our best numbers guys! I would gladly stroll up to MDT with my trusty 18 inch steel ruler but I’m a little hungover today, as evidenced by my silly 2am posting. Pap went a little too hard last night (a rare thing these days) and momma is giving me the side eye this morning ha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The NAM is the worst model for QPF output and evolution of any that exist, it only really can be reliable for thermals and MOS type guidance on temps I agree with you! Anything that swings so much like the 3k NAM in 6 hours like that cannot be trusted whatsoever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Cloudy 30 waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Steelers Ravens rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree with you! Anything that swings so much like the 3k NAM in 6 hours like that cannot be trusted whatsoever! Very true. So...why post dozens of NAM snow maps over the past few days if you know it's so inaccurate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Light snow 31/25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Very true. So...why post dozens of NAM snow maps over the past few days if you know it's so inaccurate?NAM is fun thank you look at. That is all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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