Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Just my opinion, having been in the MA thread for years before moving to Carroll Valley, ERS might be in my regards one of the more pessimistic and less credible red taggers in that forum. Not to incite gossip but there was a time 2-3 years ago where when his name popped up a lot of folks in there would prepare themselves for what they were gonna read next. Truth There's a difference between honest assessment and purposely getting people riled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is a sampling of the 12z runs that are good for snow for many of us… It’s funny yet interesting that the ICON continues to show a decent middle ground that would make most happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Just my opinion, having been in the MA thread for years before moving to Carroll Valley, ERS might be in my regards one of the more pessimistic and less credible red taggers in that forum. Not to incite gossip but there was a time 2-3 years ago where when his name popped up a lot of folks in there would prepare themselves for what they were gonna read next. I actually did not know anything about him or her, I more meant to post the paragraph below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hot off the press: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Hot off the press: ALEET, ALEET ! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1223 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063-064- 060900- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T0300Z/ Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union- Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 1223 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are most likely during the afternoon into the evening. Mixed precipitation should result in reduced snowfall accumulation for areas to the southeast of I-81 and I-78. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of Good For Snow…most of the 12z models are good for snow for most of CTP. I almost choked on my lunch while reading all of the Deb posts on here… We all don’t live in Lancaster or York county, and even they should at least get a solid Advisory event out of this…. Outside of the NAMs, the rest of 12z says all systems go for Warning level event for the rest of us near I-81 and areas West & North. If by Deb you mean people doing PBP, you nailed it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: If by Deb you mean people doing PBP, you nailed it. Lol, Nope, go read back, it was like a funeral in here for about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Lanco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 this will be 6-12" for many of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I still like my 4-8" call for most of the forum from earlier this week. In fact, for mby I can just about guarantee you that I will measure at least 4". CTP agrees with your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 40 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It is somewhat interesting that this is the 5th consecutive run that the low was SE of the previous run... Good trend. Maybe the GFS is recognizing the blocking up top & responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, Nope, go read back, it was like a funeral in here for about an hour. I just remember PBP's and yes, the Lanco people were down but I did not see many, if any posts, saying Marysville was screwed. To me it was more talking about the pull back from the good runs last night for their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, Nope, go read back, it was like a funeral in here for about an hour. LOL, nope, it was not. But thanks for the insult. It's obvious that being a realist is equivalent to being negative. You have no clue how many times over the years that your pretty snow maps resulted in nothing more than a bunch of puddles in my backyard. As a realist (based off dozens and dozens of prior experiences) I will remain skeptical (not negative) until I have reason to be different otherwise. Those snow maps mean very little to what will actually happen. Funeral...geez, I thought we were having fun. It's not fun any longer though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ah yes, the old WWA Consolation Prize for Lanco. Kinda like winning $4 in Powerball but at least it's something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: LOL, nope, it was not. But thanks for the insult. It's obvious that being a realist is equivalent to being negative. You have no clue how many times over the years that your pretty snow maps resulted in nothing more than a bunch of puddles in my backyard. As a realist (based off dozens and dozens of prior experiences) I will remain skeptical (not negative) until I have reason to be different otherwise. Those snow maps mean very little to what will actually happen. Funeral...geez, I thought we were having fun. It's not fun any longer though. I am very experienced in the highs & lows on here & in my backyard in my nearly 30 years of tracking Winter storms. Lol, “funeral” might have been a little strong, but the southern tier crew were acting like it was over for all of us, that was my issue. I respect your experience & knowledge, & didn’t mean to insult you or anyone. I was just commenting on the tone of the thread for awhile this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Festus said: Ah yes, the old WWA Consolation Prize for Lanco. Kinda like winning $4 in Powerball but at least it's something. At least you have something. Mt. Holly hasn't issued even a WWA for Berks or Lehigh County yet. Like Lancaster, Berks and Lehigh may be a battle ground to get anything more than a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Late nooners 34/21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Coop_Mason said: Late nooners 34/21 Whistling the sweet tune of some low DP's, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Have to say, 12z Gfs, and to a lesser extent Ggem, was what I wanted to see in the Medium range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Whistling the sweet tune of some low DP's, eh? 35/21 in Marysville. Low dews should help tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Whistling the sweet tune of some low DP's, eh? Would be nice to have a few hour period of radiational cooling tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of Good For Snow…most of the 12z models are good for snow for most of CTP. I almost choked on my lunch while reading all of the Deb posts on here… We all don’t live in Lancaster or York county, and even they should at least get a solid Advisory event out of this…. Outside of the NAMs, the rest of 12z says all systems go for Warning level event for the rest of us near I-81 and areas West & North. Thanks Blizz I didn't think I was too crazy this AM. Funeral/Negative might of be a little strong but I like where we stood on this event. CTP thinks 4-8 JB 6-12 DT 6 plus and others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I am very experienced in the highs & lows on here & in my backyard in my nearly 30 years of tracking Winter storms. Lol, “funeral” might have been a little strong, but the southern tier crew were acting like it was over for all of us, that was my issue. I respect your experience & knowledge, & didn’t mean to insult you or anyone. I was just commenting on the tone of the thread for awhile this morning. Nobody was acting like it was over for everyone. Absolutely no one. Just southern crew growing more skeptical as we approach the event and higher-res guidance starts to show the all-too-familiar and all-too-persistent warm air noses. We would LOVE to see it go the other way but are trying to stay grounded. I still expect 4-8" north and west of MDT and have said as much. Heck, I just told all my friends that I'm setting the over/under for down here in Hempfield at 2.5", so it's not like I'm expecting a full skunking. I think we see a couple hours of thump and will be thrilled for those in the bigger money. It's all good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Nobody was acting like it was over for everyone. Absolutely no one. Just southern crew growing more skeptical as we approach the event and higher-res guidance starts to show the all-too-familiar and all-too-persistent warm air noses. We would LOVE to see it go the other way but are trying to stay grounded. I still expect 4-8" north and west of MDT and have said as much. Heck, I just told all my friends that I'm setting the over/under for down here in Hempfield at 2.5", so it's not like I'm expecting a full skunking. I think we see a couple hours of thump and will be thrilled for those in the bigger money. It's all good. Yep neighbor thinking around 3" before the turn to slush. A little movement north or south will be big here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Nobody was acting like it was over for everyone. Absolutely no one. Just southern crew growing more skeptical as we approach the event and higher-res guidance starts to show the all-too-familiar and all-too-persistent warm air noses. We would LOVE to see it go the other way but are trying to stay grounded. I still expect 4-8" north and west of MDT and have said as much. Heck, I just told all my friends that I'm setting the over/under for down here in Hempfield at 2.5", so it's not like I'm expecting a full skunking. I think we see a couple hours of thump and will be thrilled for those in the bigger money. It's all good. Understood & all good too! I am guilty as charged for being too optimistic sometimes. Let’s enjoy whatever we end up with tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro totals look similar to 0z. Very solid through most of central PA with the super tight gradient remaining over York/Lanc counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Euro totals look similar to 0z. Very solid through most of central PA with the super tight gradient remaining over York/Lanc counties. Almost doubled imby. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Understood & all good too! I am guilty as charged for being too optimistic sometimes. Let’s enjoy whatever we end up with tomorrow. I am with you. I did think of the B word about a week ago when looking at 1/6-1/7 and now fighting over the snow/mix line. Some things never change with this Hobby model madness all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nws has me in a WWA but around 1500' out my front door in Adams County it's a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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