GrandmasterB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS is colder at 30 and a better thump. 36 is warmer but a decent amount before the changeover down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 good for snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: good for snow It's actually a pretty hefty thump and surface temps are slightly colder in the heavy frames (not surprised, driven by rates) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS is one of our better outcomes for down this way but also probably not our best tool at this point for detecting the minutia, unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS 4-8 for West and North LSV and much of Central and North PA....3-6 or 2-4 as you go down into the SE. Kuch on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I still like my 4-8" call for most of the forum from earlier this week. In fact, for mby I can just about guarantee you that I will measure at least 4". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Gem https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=42&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I still like my 4-8" call for most of the forum from earlier this with. In fact, for mby I can just about guarantee you that I will measure at least 4". Could be a few different takes on this. Either way, I'm betting the under. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Could be a few different takes on this. Either way, I'm betting the under. LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS is one of our better outcomes for down this way but also probably not our best tool at this point for detecting the minutia, unfortunately. GFS is also very wet - over 1" of QPF for us. I think that matters a lot for us to win on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gem https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=42&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 digital blue next weekend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Porsche said: digital blue next weekend That is the one many are interested in...GFS bringing that boundary back down again. Need more adjustments for a real snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 CTP calls for damaging wind gusts Tuesday night, wind advisories Tues-Thurs am and creeks and rivers to hit flood stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP calls for damaging wind gusts Tuesday night, wind advisories Tues-Thurs am and creeks and rivers to hit flood stage. Yeah that one's gonna be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah that one's gonna be a doozy. I still contend that if a miracle happens and we all get 6 or more inches of snow, we may have some roof issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP calls for damaging wind gusts Tuesday night, wind advisories Tues-Thurs am and creeks and rivers to hit flood stage. 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah that one's gonna be a doozy. Yesterday's AFD from CTP even mentioned a severe threat with this - I remember a few severe storms in February (had a significant threat/Tornado Warning just in the past 5-6 years) but to have one in early January has to be exceptionally rare. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Is this finally the one that breaks through? All the usual caveats about suppression but we are fighting with two arms behind our back until we get colder air near us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Global snow maps looking somewhat similar. UK a bit on the light side on the SE edge. Some of this is 2-4 in the Laurels on Tue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ukie ce south and good for many. I'm on the line. Driving so no map. Sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Global snow maps looking very similar. UK a bit on the light side on the SE edge. Ninja'ed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, Porsche said: digital blue next weekend It is somewhat interesting that this is the 5th consecutive run that the low was SE of the previous run... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Another reality check post from the MA. I think his spell checker needs a beer and he meant drought. ERS is right, its not his fault its not going to snow in DC. It's been 719 days since DC had an inch of snow. Not a snowstorm...just an inch! And sadly just before this, only a few years ago we missed setting the then record longest snow draught by just a few days. So... how can you take anyone seriously who has been saying how great everything looks though that? We make fun of JB all the time, but at the same time we pick on the people who give an honest assessment also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Another reality check post from the MA. I think his spell checker needs a beer and he meant drought. ERS is right, its not his fault its not going to snow in DC. It's been 719 days since DC had an inch of snow. Not a snowstorm...just an inch! And sadly just before this, only a few years ago we missed setting the then record longest snow draught by just a few days. So... how can you take anyone seriously who has been saying how great everything looks though that? We make fun of JB all the time, but at the same time we pick on the people who give an honest assessment also. He may be right but he likes to do drive by trolls. Ussually pops in when things look bleak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: He may be right but he likes to do drive by trolls. Ussually pops in when things look bleak. The ERS thing I am not so knowledgeable of, but this board does tend to reactive negatively toward realistic posts sometimes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The ERS thing I am not so knowledgeable of, but this board does tend to reactive negatively toward realistic posts sometimes. Can't argue with that lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The ERS thing I am not so knowledgeable of, but this board does tend to reactive negatively toward realistic posts sometimes. Just my opinion, having been in the MA thread for years before moving to Carroll Valley, ERS might be in my regards one of the more pessimistic and less credible red taggers in that forum. Not to incite gossip but there was a time 2-3 years ago where when his name popped up a lot of folks in there would prepare themselves for what they were gonna read next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The ERS thing I am not so knowledgeable of, but this board does tend to reactive negatively toward realistic posts sometimes.People told dc that they would be paying for 2010 for the next 50 years. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: good for snow Speaking of Good For Snow…most of the 12z models are good for snow for most of CTP. I almost choked on my lunch while reading all of the Deb posts on here… We all don’t live in Lancaster or York county, and even they should at least get a solid Advisory event out of this…. Outside of the NAMs, the rest of 12z says all systems go for Warning level event for the rest of us near I-81 and areas West & North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of Good For Snow…most of the 12z models are good for snow for most of CTP. I almost choked on my lunch while reading all of the Deb posts on here… We all don’t live in Lancaster or York county, and even they should at least get a solid Advisory event out of this…. Outside of the NAMs, the rest of 12z says all systems go for Warning level event for the rest of us near I-81 and areas West & North. Here is a sampling of the 12z runs that are good for snow for many of us… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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