canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 That NAM is not that good and those snow maps are imo almost double inflated. As depicted that'd be a basically non-event for MDT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This panel spelled doom for a coastal save on the Nam. Roll RGEM, roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I would really caution against 10:1 maps for most of the LSV. Even Kuchera may be a bit overdone. Yep understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The 3K is colder than it’s 6Z run. I know it’s not a lot but a very small silver lining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I would really caution against 10:1 maps for most of the LSV. Even Kuchera may be a bit overdone. Those TT maps count all winter types as snow on it’s 10-1 map, I usually warn about it at least once a winter or so haha. The NAM was a bit better in the LSV though. There was a better thump in front of the mixing. Sus Valley was similar on the 10-1, while the central areas getting 10”+ on Kuch are doing better than 10-1 ratios to get it. 12z v 6z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So far the 12Z's are a PSU (as in the city...State College) and MSV miracle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Some lingering snow showers through northern PA on Sunday but no real effect as to wrap-around costal influence, and certainly not for LSV. Underwhelming. 3k ever so slightly better. FV3, for whatever it's worth, continues to be bleak for the southern counties and this go around virtually blanks them, while increasing totals for central PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Some lingering snow showers through northern PA on Sunday but no real effect as to wrap-around costal influence, and certainly not for LSV. Underwhelming. 3k ever so slightly better. FV3, for whatever it's worth, continues to be bleak for the southern counties and this go around virtually blanks them, while increasing totals for central PA. MU cautioned last evening that MUCH could change overnight/today. Both good OR bad. He had very low confidence in his snow map for being less than 48 hours out. New map coming later today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU cautioned last evening that MUCH could change overnight/today. Both good OR bad. He had very low confidence in his snow map for being less than 48 hours out. New map coming later today... The way these Meso's are gyrating low locations, I am keeping the blinds a little open at least. False hopes probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The way these Meso's are gyrating low locations, I am keeping the blinds a little open at least. False hopes probably. We live for false hope around here! Hey, I got my 5-minute graupel shower yesterday so I'm good either way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Well at least a couple hours of snow. I can look out and walk in it, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I thought CTP's map yesterday was a kick in the loins...and then they somehow topped it: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I thought CTP's map yesterday was a kick in the loins...and then they somehow topped it: Think of the drought! LOL. The rain will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Southern folks just lost the NWS Blend of models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Rgem holding on for dear life. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2024010513&fh=89&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mitchnick said: Rgem holding on for dear life. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2024010513&fh=89&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 We still have the EPS! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: We live for false hope around here! Hey, I got my 5-minute graupel shower yesterday so I'm good either way I watched It's A Wonderful Life twice this holiday season so I saw all the digital snow I need. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Joking aside: I was going to WD40 the snow shovel (it helps the snow not stick!) but it seems that won't be necessary. This is designed to be a no-cleanup needed system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Joking aside: I was going to WD40 the snow shovel (it helps the snow not stick!) but it seems that won't be necessary. This is designed to be a no-cleanup needed system. The LSV has WD40 sprayed all over it all winter it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, canderson said: I watched It's A Wonderful Life twice this holiday season so I saw all the digital snow I need. I doubt that it was digital snow in 1950 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It is rapidly becoming more and more likely that my no shoveling streak will continue. 2021 was my last shovel. Just an unprecedented run ongoing. And yes, I'm aware that we've had rough stretches before (I am 58 years old) but nothing in my lifetime matches this futility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Icon looks a little warmer. Maybe some with WB could post a map since TT aren't out for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I doubt that it was digital snow in 1950 lol It definitely wasn't digital snow back in 1950. Remember, our parents used to walk to school, uphill in the snow. Well, at least that is what I was told. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Another thing I was thinking about yesterday - whatever happened to the winter days where snow flurries and squalls happened several times each winter? I remember so many days when I was younger when the forecast was "mostly cloudy today with on and off snow flurries and squalls....the ground may be whitened from time to time..." We seldom if ever have those days anymore...especially down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/2/2024 at 11:59 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said: My main takeaways/concerns for this event are as follows: The speed of the system. She's a mover. Not going to allow for huge totals. With the tightness of that Low track to our south, I continue to be concerned about some warm air intrusion for those of us along the southern tier. Typical for us, and I do think we'll overcome it for the most part, but always the fly in the ointment. The level of beer stock in my fridge -- too low. Overall though, very pleased to have what looks like a solid forum-wide event in the cards. I'm thinking 4-8" for most, with some 12" lollipops. Onward. My thoughts from Tuesday remain, with the exception of the plowable totals being confined to points northwest of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another thing I was thinking about yesterday - whatever happened to the winter days where snow flurries and squalls happened several times each winter? I remember so many days when I was younger when the forecast was "mostly cloudy today with on and off snow flurries and squalls....the ground may be whitened from time to time..." We seldom if ever have those days anymore...especially down this way. Seems we need to get stuck under ULLs for those days, for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My thoughts from Tuesday remain, with the exception of the plowable totals being confined to points northwest of Harrisburg. 4-8" might end up well NW of Harrisburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Saw a well-respected met share these thoughts in the MA storm thread...interesting (and sobering) "The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift. No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another thing I was thinking about yesterday - whatever happened to the winter days where snow flurries and squalls happened several times each winter? I remember so many days when I was younger when the forecast was "mostly cloudy today with on and off snow flurries and squalls....the ground may be whitened from time to time..." We seldom if ever have those days anymore...especially down this way. Covid killed clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Saw a well-respected met share these thoughts in the MA storm thread...interesting (and sobering) "The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift. No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same." Chuck has been hounding a similar tone though in his own convoluted way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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