Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Primary low still west of Pa at 21. Snow for much of PA but much of LSV is mix or rain. Northern LSV still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 51 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Problem I have with those "patterns" is that there's no evidence from the operational or the ensemble themselves that they will give is snow. Maybe it's too early for that, I don't know, but I can't excited until I do. The upcoming 7 days or so are going to be a bit rough other than for this storm chance. Temps are going to be a bit above average along with the big time cutter. Significant cold in Canada dumps in the west at first with the -PNA so we’re looking at a cold west and warmer east. Getting toward week 2 we develop a -EPO/WPO to go along with the already negative NAO/AO. That should allow the cold to push east in time. It is definitely a nice look, though a wildcard in there is the MJO and what that does. Models eventually have it running through 4-6 at differing degrees of magnitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Mixing abound on the HRRR across all the LSV southern tier counties, but as Bubbler mentioned it seems to be really struggling with the Low placement. It's not alone in that regard ha. Either way, you can't feel great sitting in York or Lancaster at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 CTP actually raised the snow amounts in the Watch area by an inch overnight…. Now 5 to 8 of snow… Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 302 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063-064-052015- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T1500Z/ Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 302 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...The worst travel conditions are expected Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night, especially along Interstates 80 and 81, with snowfall rates in excess of one inch per hour at times creating snow covered roads and poor visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mixed precipitation will cut down on accumulations southeast of Harrisburg and York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR never transfers to the coast thru 2pm. Thanks Great Lakes low for sucking our system to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 About a third of PA is rain or dry slot at 6PM. The low has still not fully transferred east if it is going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 By 6pm the mixing line has shot all the way up through Northumberland County, but again, it still has the primary Low in WV. Could be something. Could be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7PM the lowest area of pressure finally switches East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: 7PM the lowest area of pressure finally switches East. I’m hoping that LP prolly is wrong, it would be a busy to a lot of the models even from 12 hours ago and prior that didn’t have that evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm tempted to toss the HRRR, as it is REALLY struggling with Low placement and now has sleet all the way through the Poconos and into the Catskills by 9pm haha. NAM is off and running...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Paltry accums most of the LSV outside elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I've never thought much of the HRRR, but with support from the Euro and 6z Nam, it can't be ignored unfortunately. Otoh, the Nam starts shortly with maybe some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I'm tempted to toss the HRRR, as it is REALLY struggling with Low placement and now has sleet all the way through the Poconos and into the Catskills by 9pm haha. NAM is off and running...... The low placement struggle/dual areas of Lowest pressure have been a problem on several suits for over 24 hours now. It does mess up the ground result in a big way as you suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I've never thought much of the HRRR, but with support from the Euro and 6z Nam, it can't be ignored unfortunately. Otoh, the Nam starts shortly with maybe some hope. Bring it home (or someone else). I am 0-1 this AM with the HRRR so bad luck now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Bring it home (or someone else). I am 0-1 this AM with the HRRR so bad luck now. Sorry. Can't do it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: By 6pm the mixing line has shot all the way up through Northumberland County, but again, it still has the primary Low in WV. Could be something. Could be nothing. Were all doomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM at Hr 24 minimal changes with 1003 Low near TN/NC border and 540 line in similar placement as 6z across southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So tired of the same song and dance with model showing snow then up to the day before just be like no no no now a mix right away to cold rain or dry slotting and now transfer to a coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 At 1pm primary 1003 Low now centered over central NC/VA border as it reaches for the coast. Snow breaking out across most of southcentral PA with maybe some light rain out in front for eastern areas. 540 placement very similar to 6z. Very minimal changes thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If the Euro and some of the Meso's end up correct, PLEASE let this be a reminder that nothing is written in stone 48 hours out. (or more) Some here thought we were immune to major changes on Wednesday night and even yesterday. There have been plenty of storms that 24 hours out, looked like the mix line would set up over Lanco. The reality is that it set up over the northern tier counties and even southern NY state. And that's not an exaggeration. Every storm is different and has nuances...but the idea of the mix line ending up WAY farther NW than modeled happens more often than some people want to remember. We can hope this one is different. I remain skeptical. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 By 4pm mixing has occurred through almost all of York/Lanc counties as 1001 Low sits near southeastern VA coastline. Mixing a little further north and more pronounced than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The NAM is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 At 7pm 1002 L off VA/NC coastline. Rain through all of Lancaster and much of Berks and points east. Again, more so than 6z. Still holding as snow for MDT and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Kuchera has pretty much all of York/Lanc ~2", with tight gradient of 3-6" across Dauphin. State College Altoona corridor big winner with 9". Let's see if it wants to develop anything for Sunday with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Not that good.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I would really caution against 10:1 maps for most of the LSV. Even Kuchera may be a bit overdone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I would really caution against 10:1 maps for most of the LSV. Even Kuchera may be a bit overdone. Of all of the bad, highly inaccurate snow maps, that version might be the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Of all of the bad, highly inaccurate snow maps, that version might be the worst. Yeah some of the sites just do not do a good job of handling any non-snow forms of wintry precip when it comes to accumulation. Like not good at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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