Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, DDweatherman said: Gfs with 6-8” right there in the middle. Nam and 3 were crushing at 0z then north at 6z. The limbo continues. Yo Yo time. This lack of a clear vision does make sense in the fact that we no room for error with our cold air...even in the best of times, when a low makes it to North WV (Nam and Euro) we have worries here....including the aforementioned dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. 1-3" is what I saw. A non event. Then we have the RGEM with 10-12". We need the moisture to come in hot and heavy. If that happens I can see our area getting 4 to 8. Basically we need the 1" + QPF totals that some models are showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: In summary…. Let’s do this!!! We have our first nearly region wide Winter storm Watch in 2 or 3 years… I’m stoked! Agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The EPS & GEPS look absolutely amazing & loaded with potential. This is their advertised pattern in the day 8 to 15. Look at those blocks with a coast to coast trough underneath. Problem I have with those "patterns" is that there's no evidence from the operational or the ensemble themselves that they will give is snow. Maybe it's too early for that, I don't know, but I can't excited until I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It's about go time, the Euro concerns me as I hate being on the border of a tight gradient, but thinking if we get the heavier precipitation as @Blizzard of 93 said we can do more. I'm going with 2-5 across Lancaster with more to the NW and less SE, (pretty obvious ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The difference in outputted qpf is really what bothers me with these depictions, especially since rate dependencies are driving a lot of snow outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mitchnick said: Problem I have with those "patterns" is that there's no evidence from the operational or the ensemble themselves that they will give is snow. Maybe it's too early for that, I don't know, but I can't excited until I do. Look at the 0z GFS Op… it shows potential in week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. 1-3" is what I saw. A non event. Then we have the RGEM with 10-12". The RGEM is stubborn. Probably going down with the ship. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 CTP got me back for the 4-7 with rain added in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Look at the 0z GFS Op… it shows potential in week 2. It wasn't there at 18z and it's gone on the 6z. So we have 1 random run. Once I see it with some consistency across the modeling, then I get excited. That's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We'll know in an hour or so if the 6z Euro and Nam are a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We need the moisture to come in hot and heavy. If that happens I can see our area getting 4 to 8. Basically we need the 1" + QPF totals that some models are showing If we get a "strong" slp up into WV that transfers, I would expect moisture issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Right, and I was thinking it may be due to the transfer where the OH Valley Low peters out and the new low is too far north to subject us to its CCB goodness. 6z Euro and NAM really are tracking inside (NW) as the low comes out of the Gulf. I don’t think it’s really a Miller B, it tracks directly thru the southern apps to just under DC to the northern Delmarva and then finally just off the coast. The part of the track over the southern apps distorts the surface pressure contours giving it that double low appearance. Either way, a track like that’s getting too far inside for the LSV southern tier… as I’m sure you guys are aware. It’s a big shift in especially the NAM between runs. The 0z 3k NAM run last night had me on the edge barely getting 2 inches of snow. This mornings 3k has borderline warning snows all the way into Pittsburgh/western PA. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Low of 19 here last night. Always nice to bust low by a good bit. Great radiational cooling. As for the storm, welp, after studying the overnights, can't say I share the optimism of others, at least for points south and east of Harrisburg. In aggregate, the Mesos are virtually all misses for us southern folk and that's who I'm putting more stock in at this point. This would also align with the meager totals being spit out by some of the local television station predictors. Also, as others have mentioned, if this does indeed end up being more of a Miller-B type event and the primary drives that far north and inland, well, for the globals to be in their supposed wheelhouse 2-4 days out and get that almost entirely wrong would just be.....poor. One thing is for sure, today's 12z runs are massive. But if I were a betting man, I'd think CTP lowers their map significantly for down this way. As always, hope to be wrong! Happy Friday all! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 hours ago, canderson said: I’ll buy everyone a round or 4 of drinks at @Jns2183’ Cork n Fork if MDT gets more than 6”. Don’t whine when your shoveling. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Lol, I’m surprised no one posted the 6z Herp a Derp 6z High Res Canadian . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Fyi, we lost the Ukie last night but it takes a favorable route with the slp. Just too warm I assume without going too far into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Might as well throw up the 6z run of the experimental RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) too. It’s a little bit colder aloft which makes a big difference in the LSV. 10:1 map, there’s no Kuchera one available for this. And if your wondering what RRFS is: Quote GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Might as well throw up the 6z run of the experimental RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) too. It’s a little bit colder aloft which makes a big difference in the LSV. 10:1 map, there’s no Kuchera one available for this. And if your wondering what RRFS is: VERY elevation dependent signal there for southern locales I checked the Fv3 for some love and got 1-2" so need the 12Z's to save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Might as well throw up the 6z run of the experimental RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) too. It’s a little bit colder aloft which makes a big difference in the LSV. 10:1 map, there’s no Kuchera one available for this. And if your wondering what RRFS is: I've really liked the performance of the RRFS since its inception. Always feel it has a more realistic look to its simulated radar. I check it quite often. It's the one meso that gave me hope overnight ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 19 here last night. Always nice to bust low by a good bit. Great radiational cooling. As for the storm, welp, after studying the overnights, can't say I share the optimism of others, at least for points south and east of Harrisburg. In aggregate, the Mesos are virtually all misses for us southern folk and that's who I'm putting more stock in at this point. This would also align with the meager totals being spit out by some of the local television station predictors. Also, as others have mentioned, if this does indeed end up being more of a Miller-B type event and the primary drives that far north and inland, well, for the globals to be in their supposed wheelhouse 2-4 days out and get that almost entirely wrong would just be.....poor. One thing is for sure, today's 12z runs are massive. But if I were a betting man, I'd think CTP lowers their map significantly for down this way. As always, hope to be wrong! Happy Friday all! Pretty much right back to where we were 24 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12Z HRRR the SLP is in North Georgia at hour 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It wasn't there at 18z and it's gone on the 6z. So we have 1 random run. Once I see it with some consistency across the modeling, then I get excited. That's just me. Remember when the storm for tomorrow was consistently not happening on the long range & medium OP runs. It wasn’t until last Friday when they started to really show the potential for this weekend. Then when it showed, they were mostly suppressed well to the southeast. Some were saying no chance until late January… Point is, lots can change on Op looks once you get to the seven day range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR in SW VA at 27 with a thin band of snow at the M/D line. Change in orientation of the precip could have snow in Lanco before 10AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR bring the slp further north to our west. We'll see what happens but I doubt it's good unless it bombs once to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR show a dual barrel area of lowest pressure with one SLP into SW PA at 28 and another in NC at 29. It is the model reflecting around to the location of the lowest pressure. But 850's are initially lost in SW PA due to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Great run for Western PA when the 850's are grabbed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Well, I can see where things are going now that we're 24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Some spots had low temps in the teens this morning across the county including Coatesville Airport, Chester Springs and West Bradford Township with the lowest I could find being the 17 degrees in both Warwick and Nottingham Townships. Here in East Nantmeal the low was 20.2 degrees this was the lowest temp I have recorded since the 9.8 above zero last February 4th. Today will be the calm before the storm tomorrow. Snow should arrive during the noon hour from southwest to northeast across the area and quickly change to freezing rain and then over to plain rain by 4pm. The steadiest rain should end by 11pm or so. Total rain and melted snow could total around an inch. Some snow and rain showers could last for a while on Sunday morning. We should see a nice but chilly Monday before a larger rainstorm arrives on Tuesday. Records for today: High 62 (1950) / Low 7 below zero (1904) / Rain 1.56" (1934) / Snow 3.6" (2003) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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