mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Either the 6z Euro is screwed up or we're all screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: On another note, we really need to score with this and thru the next 2 weeks because we are dealing with some ugly ensembles at the end of their forecast period. Need the op's to stop with the cutters ball. GFS had something on MLK but the one of interest before trended the wrong way with nothing to force it under us. CMC has some energy get into the base of the trough and poof it is gone. Does show a rare Clipper late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro holds onto the slp longer into WV and is warmer. I hate to admit, but the 6z Nam sorta did the same thing, but not as agressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Sometimes I hate this hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mitchnick said: Euro holds onto the slp longer into WV and is warmer. I hate to admit, but the 6z Nam sorta did the same thing, but not as agressive. 6z Euro main issue to me is precip cut way back for a lot of CTP. Best precip in Lehigh Valley to New England this run, so they get best snow this run. If we get near 1 inch of precip to us, we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Euro holds onto the slp longer into WV and is warmer. I hate to admit, but the 6z Nam sorta did the same thing, but not as agressive. And the Nam is not really showing as much going on the Eastern Flank early on like it was yesterday. This is a much closer Miller B look unfortunately though some definitions of Miller B say the storm has to form in the Oh Valley vs come up the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Either the 6z Euro is screwed up or we're all screwed. Seen this a time or two… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Sometimes I hate this hobby. Most of the time I do… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro main issue to me is precip cut way back for a lot of CTP. Best precip in Lehigh Valley to New England this run, so they get best snow this run. If we get near 1 inch of precip to us, we will be fine. That looks concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: That looks concerning. I cannot see the maps but going to guess we get dry slotted on the Euro with the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And the Nam is not really showing as much going on the Eastern Flank early on like it was yesterday. This is a much closer Miller B look unfortunately though some definitions of Miller B say the storm has to form in the Oh Valley vs come up the apps. Likely a NAM hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mahantango#1 said: That is a slap in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I cannot see the maps but going to guess we get dry slotted on the Euro with the transfer. It’s actually embarrassing that we can’t even get the nature of the low pressure tracks and transfers down, miller B and A are toggling <48 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Seen this a time or two… 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I cannot see the maps but going to guess we get dry slotted on the Euro with the transfer. See my post above…. Precip amount issue to me… it cut back this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I cannot see the maps but going to guess we get dry slotted on the Euro with the transfer. Well it's not our first rodeo...and it won't be our last. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mahantango#1 said: Well it's not our first rodeo...and it won't be our last. Several rodeos to go this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, DDweatherman said: It’s actually embarrassing that we can’t even get the nature of the low pressure tracks and transfers down, miller B and A are toggling <48 hours out. If you are referring to the models (and not definitions and which is right) I would propose that we need more definitions as I argue this was never really a true Miller A on some progs. It was on some of the Icon runs and maybe the Canadians. The Nam 12 was clearly showing dual SLP's yesterday so although the output panels looked like a Miller A, there was energy going up into the TN and OH valley as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: See my post above…. Precip amount issue to me… it cut back this run. Right, and I was thinking it may be due to the transfer where the OH Valley Low peters out and the new low is too far north to subject us to its CCB goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Several rodeos to go this Winter. As long as their not all filled with clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: As long as their not all filled with clowns. Brah, we are right here and can see you talking about us! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: On another note, we really need to score with this and thru the next 2 weeks because we are dealing with some ugly ensembles at the end of their forecast period. The EPS & GEPS look absolutely amazing & loaded with potential. This is their advertised pattern in the day 8 to 15. Look at those blocks with a coast to coast trough underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GFS is all systems go for CTP Warning level snow. Bumping this because some might have missed the 6z GFS earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z RGEM actually improved over 0z Bumping this 6z RGEM too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: This needs bumped too..CTP confident. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 In summary…. Let’s do this!!! We have our first nearly region wide Winter storm Watch in 2 or 3 years… I’m stoked! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a slap in the face. The euro is worse than that for you and me. It's ugly for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 im so confused atm bigger models suggest nah hold up no big storm a few inchs the other models are like hold my beer. holds serve to maybe slightly higher amounts. I will say this that this storm better not up and disappear like a fart in the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The euro is worse than that for you and me. It's ugly for us Yep. 1-3" is what I saw. A non event. Then we have the RGEM with 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. 1-3" is what I saw. A non event. Then we have the RGEM with 10-12". Gfs with 6-8” right there in the middle. Nam and 3 were crushing at 0z then north at 6z. The limbo continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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