paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, canderson said: @Atomixwx you still with us? No word today which makes some super sad. I think he got banned could be wrong hope I am. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Check out the Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Great GFS run with Warning snow for 99% of Susquehanna Valley. Around 9 inches at Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I would love to wake up to see a Winter Storm Watch here in York…I mean every model I see has at least 5 inches here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Check out the Canadian Wow! What a great 0z so far! Hopefully this locks in on tomorrow’s runs, but great trends with about 36 hours until game time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, TinGTown said: This may be banter, so I apologize in advance if I'm breaking rules. I live in DC and have a freshman at PSU. We are driving from DC to State College Sunday, leaving about 10:30. I have no experience with Central PA weather. On a good days it takes about 4 hours to get to State College (after stopping in Breezewood for a break). Even on good days the fog at higher elevations on 70 is terrifying. Everything I have seen forecasted for State College is 4-8 inches. What is your formats for State College? Also, do you think the roads will be ok Sunday? Thank you so much for your help. There are thousands of kids driving back to PSU this weekend. Any advice is welcome! No problem, sorry I didn’t see your post earlier. Fortunately the bulk of the event is now progged Saturday with the heaviest snows likely coming in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. That 4-8” range is still my thinking for around here. I would imagine by Sunday afternoon the worst will have been cleared up in State College, especially if it’s move-in weekend. One thing to maybe watch is some lingering lighter snows on Sunday that’s been showing up in various forms on the models associated with that second shortwave. The I-99 stretch of the trip would be where to mainly watch for that. .. specifically the stretch from Bald Eagle (Exit 52) over Skytop Mountain to the Atherton St Exit (69). Otherwise high temps on Sunday look to be around or a bit above freezing so the roads you’re taking should generally be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Wow! What a great 0z so far! Hopefully this locks in on tomorrow’s runs, but great trends with about 36 hours until game time. nice to see the snow rats near harrisburg blow up from 5 inchs back to 9 plus considering all the locals are showing nothing but rain for the last few hours of the storm in the area. dunno if they were in house models or the national ones. but I havent seen the rain in the area on recent models so a bit confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro stinks but it's on its own. Toss it. Eps are similar, however, to other ensembles imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, paweather said: I think he got banned could be wrong hope I am. I hope not... Looks like models trended better overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 But then....CTP introduced mixing into the Tamaqua forecast for Saturday night. Saturday Night Snow, possibly mixed with rain before 1am, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely between 1am and 4am, then snow and freezing rain likely after 4am. Low around 29. East wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I remember the days of the king euro almost always being right in winter. its sad now that its been so off lately. GFS for the last few years is a bit more accurate but even then it throws out stupid solutions days and days on until it finally comes into some sort of good forecast. Is it me or has the reliability of models come down after they did the big upgrade to the models years back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 27 minutes ago, Voyager said: But then....CTP introduced mixing into the Tamaqua forecast for Saturday night. Saturday Night Snow, possibly mixed with rain before 1am, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely between 1am and 4am, then snow and freezing rain likely after 4am. Low around 29. East wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. So I always had a question about when it snows and rains or mixed precip with rain at the same time. we always see the cross section of all snow then snow melting then freezing again into sleet. then snow melting and only the surface is below freezing. How the heck does the cross section of that look like? ive never seen any explication in a cross section how you can have so many different types of precip going on in the same area. Also seeing it snow at 44 even tho it doesnt lay when I was younger always was like huh how lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hilarious that I woke up with a winter storm watch and all of the models seem to have pulled the rug out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Rgem is a lot of rain for some on TT and a snowstorm on Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem is a lot of rain for some on TT and a snowstorm on Pivotal. Lotta snow too https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010506&fh=72&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Lotta snow too https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010506&fh=72&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 I’ll sign up for that… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: This is their best map yet. The yellow really expanded nicely to include Harrisburg in the 6 to 8 zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: I’ll sign up for that… GGEM a little less. Probably warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z GFS is all systems go for CTP Warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Lotta snow too https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010506&fh=72&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 CLose to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GFS is all systems go for CTP Warning level snow. This is the full GFS storm through Sunday for Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: CLose to a foot. 6z RGEM actually improved over 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Nice to see the models trending in a good direction for once. Hope it holds for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is the full GFS storm through Sunday for Eastern areas. That pivotal map I posted was with the storm rolling out. Only .1 or .2" was added. Just large differences between Pivotal and Wb Kuch maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 got down to 23 overnight here. Will this be a wet snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: got down to 23 overnight here. Will this be a wet snow event? We are actually down to 17 here. Cold one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On another note, we really need to score with this and thru the next 2 weeks because we are dealing with some ugly ensembles at the end of their forecast period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Currently 19.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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