canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 CTP lowered my grid forecast from 4-6 to 2-4. It calls for rain at 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z Euro Control run is sweet as well! I am right on the southern edge to the wsw of the 7.8" total but something tells me I won't be getting the same amount of snow as that 7.8" snow amount location in northern NJ. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I don't hate them but do not think much of their use for snow maps at any range much less 18 hours before the event starts. They are most useful for pattern recognition and are beneficial to get a good handle a week or 2 out instead of watching wild swings on Op runs. I like to see ensemble snow maps to track long range pattern potential. In the short term, when an ensemble locks in like EPS has over the last 24 hours, it usually is on the right track with the probable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, canderson said: CTP lowered my grid forecast from 4-6 to 2-4. It calls for rain at 4 pm. Must not be enough ensembles on their screen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Must not be enough ensembles on their screen. Grids are computer-generated right? Kinda weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP lowered my grid forecast from 4-6 to 2-4. It calls for rain at 4 pm. They swing those constantly….check back later. It’s super irrelevant & annoying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 While we wait in breathless anticipation for the NAMS….not sure if it was posted on here earlier, but here is @Ellinwood map for this storm. He is a respected Met in the Mid Atlantic thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Matches well with our MU guy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Matches well with our MU guy. . & close to the EPS…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Good evening everyone! New to this site as I used to hang out a Wxdisco for many years until this year. Anybody know why Mt. Holly hasn't issued any watches yet (at least a winter weather advisory if not a winter storm watch)? I know a lot needs to be ironed out yet as the models are still differing with thermal temps and what not, but I would have thought they would have at least issued a winter weather advisory. No big deal, just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP lowered my grid forecast from 4-6 to 2-4. It calls for rain at 4 pm. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. The grid forecasts can get wonky with how and when they update. Lord knows if you are rain by 4pm we’ve been basically skunked down here ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: This is surprisingly readable! I’ll take the 6 inches for Harrisburg too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Dang Eps! Like Justin Tucker kicking a field goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The 0z HRRR is picking up on major mixing across the southern tier counties very early in the storm. Would basically be a non-event for most of Lancaster County. It’s near the end of its range sooooo. But still a bit worrisome, as I’ve seen it sniff out thermal issues at range a number of times before. Hopefully wrong but food for thought. Aye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 FIRST CALL MAP While the new technology and new weather models which have come out over the last 20 years are demonstrably better than what we saw back in the 1970s 1980s and 1990s… there is something to be said for adhering to the basic rules that have been around for 60-70 years when it comes to East Coast winter storms. And one of those basic rules is that if you have a coastal storm( known as a MILLER A East Coast winter storm) that comes up from the southern States, you HAVE to have a source of either Arctic or semi-Arctic air to the north that replenishes the cold air along the coastal plain. Otherwise the track of the LOW along or just off the coast will send relatively mild Ocean Air into the coastal plain and change the snow /sleet/ freezing rather quickly to all rain. That cold air source HAS to be 1) strong area of HIGH pressure that consists of either Arctic or semi-arctic air and 2) that HIGH has to be located in a certain position-- in the central / eastern Great Lakes and/ or into eastern Ontario and / or far northern New England and / or southern Quebec Canada. With respect to Saturday that cold HIGH pressure area simply does not exist. So the atmosphere that initially is cold enough to support winter precipitation in portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic and the interior portions of Maryland and Virginia does not last. And that is exactly what the short-range models are showing here on midday Thursday January 4th. This is why all the data here this morning and at midday have trended warmer in the lower portions of the Middle Atlantic region. you'll see that the snow amounts are reduced in the Shenandoah Valley and is a lot more ICE on these maps. I have moved the one inch snow line north of DC and just touching Baltimore. The start times are unchanged but I have expanded the ICE area. Because the mid levels of the atmosphere are warmer the ice concern is a bit more serious in the southern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the Virginia Piedmont. The 6-inch Snow Line is now barely touching the far Northwest tip of Virginia -mostly restricted to the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia and Western Maryland. North of NYC as well as NW NJ into the Poconos the Catskills and southern New England this looks like a very impressive snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: FIRST CALL MAP While the new technology and new weather models which have come out over the last 20 years are demonstrably better than what we saw back in the 1970s 1980s and 1990s… there is something to be said for adhering to the basic rules that have been around for 60-70 years when it comes to East Coast winter storms. And one of those basic rules is that if you have a coastal storm( known as a MILLER A East Coast winter storm) that comes up from the southern States, you HAVE to have a source of either Arctic or semi-Arctic air to the north that replenishes the cold air along the coastal plain. Otherwise the track of the LOW along or just off the coast will send relatively mild Ocean Air into the coastal plain and change the snow /sleet/ freezing rather quickly to all rain. That cold air source HAS to be 1) strong area of HIGH pressure that consists of either Arctic or semi-arctic air and 2) that HIGH has to be located in a certain position-- in the central / eastern Great Lakes and/ or into eastern Ontario and / or far northern New England and / or southern Quebec Canada. With respect to Saturday that cold HIGH pressure area simply does not exist. So the atmosphere that initially is cold enough to support winter precipitation in portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic and the interior portions of Maryland and Virginia does not last. And that is exactly what the short-range models are showing here on midday Thursday January 4th. This is why all the data here this morning and at midday have trended warmer in the lower portions of the Middle Atlantic region. you'll see that the snow amounts are reduced in the Shenandoah Valley and is a lot more ICE on these maps. I have moved the one inch snow line north of DC and just touching Baltimore. The start times are unchanged but I have expanded the ICE area. Because the mid levels of the atmosphere are warmer the ice concern is a bit more serious in the southern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the Virginia Piedmont. The 6-inch Snow Line is now barely touching the far Northwest tip of Virginia -mostly restricted to the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia and Western Maryland. North of NYC as well as NW NJ into the Poconos the Catskills and southern New England this looks like a very impressive snowstorm. I’m assuming this is DT ? Good thing we live in PA… I’ll take my 6 inches of snow on his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m assuming this is DT ? Good thing we live in PA… I’ll take my 6 inches of snow on his map. Yes its DT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 LWX added carroll county wsw. Can’t be a bad thing for York and Lancaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I just think it’s boiling down to the antecedent airmass in place and the storm evolution itself. We’re set up fairly decently for this event as far as features in place but the antecedent cold isn’t very impressive. The high is there but it doesn’t seem like it’s being progged to be very efficient with drawing the cold air associated with the high into the system much at all until the storm gets going more off the coast under New England when it’s past us. This is where I think the earlier miller B solutions would have been better for us. A more developed primary trying to come up and transferring under us would have established the northeasterly flow to draw more cold air from the high. This has become pretty much a straight miller A that’s winding up later and making the event here pretty much an quicker hitting 8-10hr one for the best precip… and it’s not pulling in more cold during the event in time to push the rain/snow line in our region. Surface low track is going to be key and a little bit of difference is going to go a long way either direction in that LSV southern tier. This may be banter, so I apologize in advance if I'm breaking rules. I live in DC and have a freshman at PSU. We are driving from DC to State College Sunday, leaving about 10:30. I have no experience with Central PA weather. On a good days it takes about 4 hours to get to State College (after stopping in Breezewood for a break). Even on good days the fog at higher elevations on 70 is terrifying. Everything I have seen forecasted for State College is 4-8 inches. What is your formats for State College? Also, do you think the roads will be ok Sunday? Thank you so much for your help. There are thousands of kids driving back to PSU this weekend. Any advice is welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looks like we may have gotten NAM’d. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I love the Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, anotherman said: Looks like we may have gotten NAM’d. I looked at soundings, amd for the first time it actually got colder from 45hrs to 48hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: LWX added carroll county wsw. Can’t be a bad thing for York and Lancaster Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Looks like we may have gotten NAM’d. NAMing underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Getting NAM’d here in the poconos / Lehigh valley . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dang shame the Nam will look different in 6 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Superstorm said: NAM looks good . I keep hitting refresh….so slow….but so good…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: NAMing underway Sniffin' the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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