Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 18z ICON has been consistent the last couple of days & is a decent middle ground solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's map is out but can't post on my phone. 1-3" south of turnpike, 3-6" for most everyone else in the LSV. He said significant changes can still occur... I found the MU map on Twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I found the MU map on Twitter. I’ll take his 3 to 6 of snow & like it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ll take his 3 to 6 of snow & like it! Yep sign me up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ll take his 3 to 6 of snow & like it! 100% percent and twice on Tuesdays! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I like seeing that CTP upped their totals on their map. A lot more yellow & dark blue in the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 40 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I found the MU map on Twitter. Tamaqua sits right on the 3-6, 6-10 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Voyager said: Tamaqua sits right on the 3-6, 6-10 line. Don't say it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hot off the presses… 18z Euro 10-1 & Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hot off the presses… 18z Euro 10-1 & Kuchera The Euro seems to be inline with MU & CTP ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hot off the presses… 18z Euro 10-1 & Kuchera On Pivotal, York airport kuchie is 5.4" and regular is 7.8" while WB is 6.5" and 7.5" respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: On Pivotal, York airport kuchie is 5.4" and regular is 7.8" while WB is 6.5" and 7.5" respectively. I’ll take the 6.1 or 8 near Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dumb question: what exactly is the snow depth map the gfs produced? Is that snow after a storm? How is that even measured? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Dumb question: what exactly is the snow depth map the gfs produced? Is that snow after a storm? How is that even measured? Magic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Dumb question: what exactly is the snow depth map the gfs produced? Is that snow after a storm? How is that even measured? No idea for certain how they do it, I can only guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Give me an inch of precip like the 18z Euro shows & I like the Harrisburg area’s chances to score Warning level snow with this low track & cold enough air in place. If the precip stays moderate to heavy, it should stay mostly snow in my opinion based on my experiences over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Dumb question: what exactly is the snow depth map the gfs produced? Is that snow after a storm? How is that even measured? Probably some kind of computer algorithm that takes temp, dp, compaction, and who knows what else into consideration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Dumb question: what exactly is the snow depth map the gfs produced? Is that snow after a storm? How is that even measured? It is the actual snow that will remain after a storm. So we get 6" accums but compaction and temps above freezing/rain take a toll, it is what you see on the ground when the sun comes out. Many Mets use it vs. The accum maps. Computer magic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It is the actual snow that will remain after a storm. So we get 6" accums but compaction and temps above freezing/rain take a toll, it is what you see on the ground when the sun comes out. Many Mets use it vs. The accum maps. Computer magic. Basically voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Also, the snow depth change maps on the GFS are not related to anything after the storm So, if it says 2" on Sunday it is still 2" on Wed after the Ark flooding coming our way. It is cumulative. So, to me it is only useful for the hours after a snow event. Here is the actual snow depth map for a week out. Not cumulative. Brown town and maybe Walmart parking lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I assume EPS numbers are going up as we get closer in time to the event?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What happened to the no ensembles within 3 days rule? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What happened to the no ensembles within 3 days rule? :-) Did not know that was a rule. Actually, did not know when they stop being useful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Did not know that was a rule. Actually, did not know when they stop being useful. . LOL it is not a rule, I was kidding and did not mean to offend. But most will move away from them because you have 20, 30 models being fed purposely alternate (one could argue false) data so close to an event, at what point do you assume the real data will prevail. A lot of forecasting outfits will not refer to them within 3-5 days of an event. When you have such a small spread of 72 or 96 hours, usually the purposely entered alterations do not produce as much effect as say 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 LOL it is not a rule, I was kidding and did not mean to offend. But most will move away from them because you have 20, 30 models being fed purposely alternate (one could argue false) data so close to an event, at what point do you assume the real data will prevail. A lot of forecasting outfits will not refer to them within 3-5 days of an event. When you have such a small spread of 72 or 96 hours, usually the purposely alterations do not produce as much effect as say 6-7 days out. It’s all good. No offense taken.Good information to know.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dang Eps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I assume EPS numbers are going up as we get closer in time to the event? . Indeed… the 18z EPS is locked in! Amounts went increased a bit for Harrisburg, York & even good old Rouzerville (even though he hates ensembles…lol) 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Dang Eps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z Euro Control run is sweet as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Indeed… the 18z EPS is locked in! Amounts went increased a bit for Harrisburg, York & even good old Rouzerville (even though he hates ensembles…lol) I don't hate them but do not think much of their use for snow maps at any range much less 18 hours before the event starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Dang Eps! I’m ready to snowblow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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