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Central PA Winter 23/24


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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh.

Map of Forecast Area

This is where county-wide headlines are so misleading. Dauphin is int he warning for the mountains and northern tier. Harrisburg would def not be in it as it's at best a 4" or so storm for us here imo. 

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

This is where county-wide headlines are so misleading. Dauphin is int he warning for the mountains and northern tier. Harrisburg would def not be in it as it's at best a 4" or so storm for us here imo. 

Yeah up north they'll often split the counties (i.e. northern Centre vs southern Centre), not so much down here.

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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm about 1000-1500 feet from the Adam's County border. Does that mean I  still have to drive cautiously in the snow?

It means that if you sniff real hard while getting soaked, you'll smell the good snows. You have to flirt with the snow line to get the good rains. 

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18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm about 1000-1500 feet from the Adam's County border. Does that mean I  still have to drive cautiously in the snow?

I have an extra room at the house.   

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First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) 

(1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia..

(2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTuned

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