Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: FWIW, and it's probably not much ha, but here is 18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm Saturday..... A distinct column cooling signal there with rain at the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A distinct column cooling signal there with rain at the front. Yes sir. No doubt. As has been stated, we're gonna need rates down here. Big rates before the LLJ gets cranking off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh.We will get a winter weather advisory for 1 to 2 inches of snow/sleet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: We will get a winter weather advisory for 1 to 2 inches of snow/sleet. . Given that the WSW is for 4-7", I'm going to guess we'll be either 1-3" or even 2-4" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Given that the WSW is for 4-7", I'm going to guess we'll be either 1-3" or even 2-4" for now. Good point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh. This is where county-wide headlines are so misleading. Dauphin is int he warning for the mountains and northern tier. Harrisburg would def not be in it as it's at best a 4" or so storm for us here imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh. I'm about 1000-1500 feet from the Adam's County border. Does that mean I still have to drive cautiously in the snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, canderson said: This is where county-wide headlines are so misleading. Dauphin is int he warning for the mountains and northern tier. Harrisburg would def not be in it as it's at best a 4" or so storm for us here imo. Yeah up north they'll often split the counties (i.e. northern Centre vs southern Centre), not so much down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm about 1000-1500 feet from the Adam's County border. Does that mean I still have to drive cautiously in the snow? It means that if you sniff real hard while getting soaked, you'll smell the good snows. You have to flirt with the snow line to get the good rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Heights are a touch lower on the Nam. That can't hurt at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Dumping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Dumping: All downhill from there unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: All downhill from there unfortunately Nope 54 still dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: All downhill from there unfortunately I stay all snow just the back side of the storm. 10pm on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HH NAM is going to deliver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The NAM definitely came in a little colder but the Kuchera map is about as paltry as we've seen for central PA. Not great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I think 3k is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The NAM definitely came in a little colder but the Kuchera map is about as paltry as we've seen for central PA. Not great. Disappointing...the actual run/progression looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm about 1000-1500 feet from the Adam's County border. Does that mean I still have to drive cautiously in the snow? I have an extra room at the house. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 CTP's new amounts: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’ve been so busy with taking over my third golf course I haven’t had the enjoyment or disappointments of tracking yet. 6” a good call for western Adams ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2nd court on NAM to save the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I think the snow amounts on the NAM were somewhat impacted by the overall QPF and QPF intensity. Which those two things are notoriously difficult to model. Overall progression on the NAM was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 My last call: Harrisburg, Lebanon, and surrounding areas 3-5" Lancaster York areas 2-3" Palmyra - 12" Last call only one call for me. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Time to play the weenie game of give me the NAM thermals with the Euro QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, paweather said: My last call: Harrisburg, Lebanon, and surrounding areas 3-5" Lancaster York areas 2-3" Palmyra - 1.2” Last call only one call for me. Fixed lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: Im rooting for everyone to get 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) (1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia.. (2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 My last call: Harrisburg, Lebanon, and surrounding areas 3-5" Lancaster York areas 2-3" Palmyra - 1.2” Last call only one call for me. Fixed lol That is about right! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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