GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think something else to consider is that snow is an anomaly in our area. Alot has to go right for us to get snow. As time get close to the actual event models have more/better data and we bleed the wrong way. Also a common model error is height fields being to far south as you go out in time. It's gotten better over the years but it's still a problem An anomaly where? Doesn’t MDT average like 30”+ a year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 22 minutes ago, paweather said: Its OK. i only paid for the month will likely pay 1 more month for it. I liked it in the old days, but I'm sure alot has changed since then. My bro suggested that he watches some of the weather guys on youtube and one guy he told me to watch called the NAO the North American Oscillation. I chuckled and havent watched him since. Guess I'll stay here for a while longer to get my fix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z Euro kuchera snowmap…overall fairly similar to roughly what the GFS showed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Getting better on that SE edge (Lanco).A lot better for Reading and Allentown.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12Z Euro noticeably snowier than 0Z. I don’t have access to 6Z to compare to that run however. R/S line on 12Z struggles to move past Lebanon county this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Also keeps the snow hanging around into Sunday morning, albeit light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro kuchera snowmap…overall fairly similar to roughly what the GFS showed That's definitely more than the Pivotal map. I now see how JB's forecast will verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This gradient in Lancaster county tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Thanks for posting those, Superstorm. Trend is clear for those of us on the bubble. Also, 12” for Allentown now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: 12Z . Like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's definitely more than the Pivotal map. I now see how JB's forecast will verify. Does he use WB to measure totals as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Does he use WB to measure totals as well? I meant he was goingvto use them as a crutch when he fails. But I hope he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 After NE's snow, they have this and temps on the 50's. Pretty cruel winter for NE so far. We're more used to it. They aren't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, Superstorm said: 12Z . 1" in southern Lanco up to 8" NE - encouraging to see the bleeding stop and the pretty colors oozing SE once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I meant he was goingvto use them as a crutch when he fails. But I hope he's right. I understand, I was being sarcastic about WB's totals which are dubious at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's windy out today, gearing up for blowing everything away next week. Gusting to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I understand, I was being sarcastic about WB's totals which are dubious at times. I would think he would use WB data since he is the founder and owner of Weather Bell. (I'm sure you already know that but others around here might not.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 1 thing that gives me hope despite the Euro is what happened in December. I wish I kept the snowfall maps, but the night of the event the Euro's 0z run (12 hour forecast) had me at .5-.75" and the 6z (6 hour forecast) had me at either .2" or .3". Both runs had a small area of Carroll County, MD at 1" around Manchester and less for the rest of the County. I ended up with 1.25" and Psuhoffman posted a pic of 3.5" in his back yard. So despite the Euro's supposed better thermals, it's not perfect. Other models that night were all over the place, some better and some worse. The marginal events seem to often bust 1 way or the other, so we hope and pray it's a good bust. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I would think he would use WB data since he is the founder and owner of Weather Bell. (I'm sure you already know that but others around here might not.) Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know it's an operational, but the 12z Euro is downright depressing how the ridge keeps building back along the east coast and the trough just stays in the west causing 1 cutter after another. Put the 500mb anomaly maps run in motion. Speed it up and you'll see what I mean. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Even the Eps don't believe the operational. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Here we go… 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I know it's an operational, but the 12z Euro is downright depressing how the ridge keeps building back along the east coast and the trough just stays in the west causing 1 cutter after another. Put the 500mb anomaly maps run in motion. Speed it up and you'll see what I mean. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc= That's equally depressing for me as well. Believe me, I don't want that trough out here. I might just see mid 20 lows at my house next week. All those warm western winters, and now that I'm here, it gets cold. Worse, like you said, as depicted, such a deep western trough sets you guys up for cutters. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Here we go… No York or Lancaster. Thinking an advisory for us. Fitting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: No York or Lancaster. Thinking an advisory for us. Fitting. My updated NWS forecast says 3-5" Saturday with additional 1-2" Saturday night possible. I guess they don't buy the Euro operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 FWIW, and it's probably not much ha, but here is 18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm Saturday..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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