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Central PA Winter 23/24


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34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think something else to consider is that snow is an anomaly in our area. 

Alot has to go right for us to get snow. As time get close to the actual event models have more/better data and we bleed the wrong way. Also a common model error is height fields being to far south as you go out in time. It's gotten better over the years but it's still a problem 

An anomaly where? Doesn’t MDT average like 30”+ a year?

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22 minutes ago, paweather said:

Its OK. i only paid for the month will likely pay 1 more month for it. 

I liked it in the old days, but I'm sure alot has changed since then. My bro suggested that he watches some of the weather guys on youtube and one guy he told me to watch called the NAO the North American Oscillation.  I chuckled and havent watched him since. Guess I'll stay here for a while longer to get my fix. ;)

 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I understand, I was being sarcastic about WB's totals which are dubious at times. 

I would think he would use WB data since he is the founder and owner of Weather Bell.  (I'm sure you already know that but others around here might not.)

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The 1 thing that gives me hope despite the Euro is what happened in December.  I wish I kept the snowfall maps, but the night of the event the Euro's 0z run (12 hour forecast) had me at .5-.75" and the 6z (6 hour forecast) had me at either .2" or .3". Both runs had a small area of Carroll County, MD at 1" around Manchester and less for the rest of the County. I  ended up with 1.25" and Psuhoffman posted a pic of 3.5" in his back yard. So despite the Euro's supposed better thermals, it's not perfect. Other models that night were all over the place, some better and some worse. The marginal events seem to often bust 1 way or the other, so we hope and pray it's a good bust.

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I know it's an operational, but the 12z Euro is downright depressing how the ridge keeps building back along the east coast and the trough just stays in the west causing 1 cutter after another. Put the 500mb anomaly maps run in motion.  Speed it up and you'll see what I  mean.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know it's an operational, but the 12z Euro is downright depressing how the ridge keeps building back along the east coast and the trough just stays in the west causing 1 cutter after another. Put the 500mb anomaly maps run in motion.  Speed it up and you'll see what I  mean.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

That's equally depressing for me as well. Believe me, I don't want that trough out here. 

I might just see mid 20 lows at my house next week. All those warm western winters, and now that I'm here, it gets cold. 

Worse, like you said, as depicted, such a deep western trough sets you guys up for cutters. That sucks.

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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

No York or Lancaster.  Thinking an advisory for us.  Fitting.

My updated NWS forecast says 3-5" Saturday with additional 1-2" Saturday night possible. I guess they don't buy the Euro operational. 

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