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Central PA Winter 23/24


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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

As depicted, that is a much more interesting situation than next week.    That is definitely a period to watch. 

 

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

MUCH more.  Keeping a close eye on that time period.

I hate to keep talking about "the storm after the storm after the storm", BUT - 

Looking at the GFS, and using MU's graphic that I posted earlier...me wonders if next weekend's low ends up becoming the 50/50. You can see the ridge axis moving onshore on the GFS, also as MU's graphic depicted, so my guess is that next weekend's storm probably does cut but sets the stage for the potential winter storm to follow later on during the week of the 15th. 

More likely, I'm wrong. :)  

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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I hate to keep talking about "the storm after the storm after the storm", BUT - 

Looking at the GFS, and using MU's graphic that I posted earlier...me wonders if next weekend's low ends up becoming the 50/50. You can see the ridge axis moving onshore on the GFS, also as MU's graphic depicted, so my guess is that next weekend's storm probably does cut but sets the stage for the potential winter storm to follow later on during the week of the 15th. 

More likely, I'm wrong. :)  

34 and light snow here right now for nooners.

We are all wrong a lot here so even if you are wrong, it is still right to say your opinion.   People who were flagging the first half of Jan are not going to like it. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Chris78 I feel like my confidence in some of the colder/snowier solutions is wearing thin re: our convo last night.  May have been too confident in the Euro being off. 

I think the Euros superior resolution really shows in marginal events. Euro is better than any other weather model in the world. 

It's not always right but when it's persistent on a certain outcome ussually other models trend towards it.

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think the Euros superior resolution really shows in marginal events. Euro is better than any other weather model in the world. 

It's not always right but when it's persistent on a certain outcome ussually other models trend towards it.

Except when we want it to be the right one!

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think the Euros superior resolution really shows in marginal events. Euro is better than any other weather model in the world. 

It's not always right but when it's persistent on a certain outcome ussually other models trend towards it.

 

2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Except when we want it to be the right one!

I was contemplating this on my drive to the office this morning - if the Euro is on an island showing a snowy solution, it will almost without fail abandon it. When the  Euro is alone with a non-snowy solution, other models move towards it. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I was contemplating this on my drive to the office this morning - if the Euro is on an island showing a snowy solution, it will almost without fail abandon it. When the  Euro is alone with a non-snowy solution, other models move towards it. 

Yea, I am not sold on the Euro being right more than wrong as to true weather.  I think the rankings are based on 500H and fronts.   There was no drought this summer if the Euro had been even half right. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I was contemplating this on my drive to the office this morning - if the Euro is on an island showing a snowy solution, it will almost without fail abandon it. When the  Euro is alone with a non-snowy solution, other models move towards it. 

I wonder if this is just having a better memory of when things went awry vs. when they went right, or more the fact that most snowstorms in PA trend towards climo, which, outside of the mountains, sucks.

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Just now, TimB said:

I wonder if this is just having a better memory of when things went awry vs. when they went right, or more the fact that most snowstorms in PA trend towards climo, which, outside of the mountains, sucks.

Fair question - probably some of that is true for sure. However, there was a time that if the Euro was showing a snowstorm, you could pretty much take it to the bank. Ever since the "upgrade" there have definitely been times when it showed a snowy solution and moved away from it...hard. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Fair question - probably some of that is true for sure. However, there was a time that if the Euro was showing a snowstorm, you could pretty much take it to the bank. Ever since the "upgrade" there have definitely been times when it showed a snowy solution and moved away from it...hard. 

Or Drought relieving rainstorms. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I was contemplating this on my drive to the office this morning - if the Euro is on an island showing a snowy solution, it will almost without fail abandon it. When the  Euro is alone with a non-snowy solution, other models move towards it. 

I think something else to consider is that snow is an anomaly in our area. 

Alot has to go right for us to get snow. As time get close to the actual event models have more/better data and we bleed the wrong way. Also a common model error is height fields being to far south as you go out in time. It's gotten better over the years but it's still a problem 

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Elliott:

(1/3) Regarding this weekend’s winter storm, details are now coming into focus. Things have sped up a bit, and snow should now overspread northern MD and south-central PA from SW-to-NE between 10 AM and 2 PM Saturday. As expected, snow will mix with or changeover to rain/sleet..

(2/3) .. south and east of I-78/I-81 by the mid-to-late afternoon hours. It’s a quick-hitter, so precip tapers off Saturday evening. Snowfall totals will be highest across northern/northeastern PA with little or nothing in the immediate I-95 corridor..

(3/3) Untreated roadways will generally be snow-covered and slippery north/west of I-78/I-81 and slushy farther south/east. Significant precip lasts for all of 6-9 hours, greatly limiting snowfall amounts. I’ll release my “First Call” Storm Outlook Map later this afternoon.

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