Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm right on the edge too. Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'. Im on the southside of Hanover in Parkville, and I sit at about 741' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'. To add to how elevation dependent events can be down our way, I've seen brown and at the top of my hill in town, white powder bombs and the diff is literally 100-150' of elevation. Thats how close we often are down here. This one will likely have some characteristics like that. BTW, that RGEM snow map is a winner for us. Just need to figure out how to rig other models to match it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Im on the southside of Hanover in Parkville, and I sit at about 741' Thanks Davis, apologies for referring to you as "that other fella" haha. We've had a good number of new people around here lately and can be hard to keep track at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'. I'm at 600', but on the north side of town, for however that helps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Thanks Davis, apologies for referring to you as "that other fella" haha. We've had a good number of new people around here lately and can be hard to keep track at times. Haha no worries. I am trying to ease my way into posting more here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: To add to how elevation dependent events can be down our way, I've seen brown and at the top of my hill in town, white powder bombs and the diff is literally 100-150' of elevation. Thats how close we often are down here. This one will likely have some characteristics like that. BTW, that RGEM snow map is a winner for us. Just need to figure out how to rig other models to match it. I've had similar experience with razor's edge events out my way. My old house sat at ~350' but I could drive a half mile up Chickies Ridge to 600' and see white. It's amazing what a little elevation can do in marginal events, which is why I'm thrilled to now sit ~480' haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Anyone know how to set the elevation so it shows up under your profile information on the side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Heights look a weeeee bit lower on GFS through Hr54 compared to 6z. Could come in a smidge colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not as much pop on the GFS, rates a little lower and totals take a small hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The RGEM is jumping low positions like the Nam did. Less than ideal for forecasting or trusting model outputs. Whether Miller A, B or hybrid it is easier if the solution is clean. On pivotal, the identified low jumps from Cental AL to Eastern GA to SC then back to GA over a 2-3 hour period. More than one area of lowest pressure vs. a consolidated strengthening low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 BUT, GFS really wants to amp the coastal sunday morning and send some death bands back down our way. I know I know haha, but it's there verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 BUT, GFS really wants to amp the coastal sunday morning and send some death bands back down our way. I know I know haha, but it's there verbatim. I like this evolution better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 For us eastern LSV folk, half of this is from the aforementioned wrap-around bands, so make of that what you will ha...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Good hit on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 @mitchnick we toss the GFS :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This definitely seems to be evolving into more of a prototypical Miller-A type costal with all the attached elements, for better or worse. Could be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Really positive GFS run for those of us riding the line. Shifted some of the minor accumulations about 20 miles south and east of us which gives just a hair breathing room. I also thought it could have been better…when the main slug of precip arrived the GFS was a smidge colder but did something weird with the intensity. Gets the coastal organized more quickly just offshore which would help us with the BL issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @mitchnick we toss the GFS :-) Looks like kuchie has me in the 5-5.5" range. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Gullywasher: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, paweather said: Gullywasher: Yep...biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z Canadian trimmed down the southern edges of the snowfall given marginal thermal profiles etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Canadian is a Lanco Letdown and Rouzerville Raking all in one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Gullywasher: We may have been expecting too much with marginal cold and a low in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Gullywasher: And winds pushing 60 mph if I'm reading correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We may have been expecting too much with marginal cold and a low in the midwest. Yeah was hoping for some front end love and no it is a rainstorm through and through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, canderson said: And winds pushing 60 mph if I'm reading correct. The low, at least on the GFS compared to yesterday is somewhat weaker. Hopefully that continues, otherwise I'm right with you on this one being a high impact wind event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 @Chris78 I feel like my confidence in some of the colder/snowier solutions is wearing thin re: our convo last night. May have been too confident in the Euro being off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Another rainstorm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Another rainstorm next weekend. As depicted, that is a much more interesting situation than next week. That is definitely a period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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