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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing I'm seeing is that the "thump" only lasts roughly 3 hours or so, and once that initial thump moves east, we mix. 

Correct.  Gonna be brief.  Hopefully she comes hard and fast to help overcome any and all thermal issues.  Could be a fun little afternoon if we keep expectations low.

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Correct.  Gonna be brief.  Hopefully she comes hard and fast to help overcome any and all thermal issues.  Could be a fun little afternoon if we keep expectations low.

Agreed 2 to 3 hours of thump could give 2 to 5 inches before changed over to sleet and light rain.


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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take the Nam. I think we get a second batch from the trailing vort. Probably no accumulations however. 

Looks like its coming around.  Right or wrong, its a CTP special and I'd think most here would take it and run (even if we take totals and multiply by .6)  :P

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1 minute ago, Superstorm said:


Agreed 2 to 3 hours of thump could give 2 to 5 inches before changed over to sleet and light rain.


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Sounds reasonable as depicted and falls in line w/ alot of others.  I still expect my north tick tomorrow, but for now its good enough for many.

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The FV3 (a model I have little faith in) has virtually no snow for York/Lanc counties.  The 3k NAM is solid.

Lancaster crew, what do we make of WGAL having the entirety of York and Lanc counties with basically a Trace to an inch or two?  I know they use their own "predictor" model.  

My first thoughts when I woke up and saw the models, I was thinking 1 to 2 inches before changeover.  I think its a decent call.

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MU getting antsy about the time period he's been excited about: (from last evening) 

I'm not saying this will happen, but tonight's run of the ECMWF model depicts the "Grandaddy" of East Coast winter storm patterns by mid-month! We have it all here: a west-based -NAO, 50/50 Low, & #JETSTREAM ridge moving into the West. Things would get wild in the week to follow!

Image

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The FV3 (a model I have little faith in) has virtually no snow for York/Lanc counties.  The 3k NAM is solid.

Lancaster crew, what do we make of WGAL having the entirety of York and Lanc counties with basically a Trace to an inch or two?  I know they use their own "predictor" model.  

I think it's going to be about the rates - if it can come in as a true thump, we score ourselves a couple/few inches. If it's light to moderate, we lose. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU getting antsy about the time period he's been excited about: (from last evening) 

I'm not saying this will happen, but tonight's run of the ECMWF model depicts the "Grandaddy" of East Coast winter storm patterns by mid-month! We have it all here: a west-based -NAO, 50/50 Low, & #JETSTREAM ridge moving into the West. Things would get wild in the week to follow!

Image

This is MU at the most excited that I've seen him since he replaced Horst. Period. 

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14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The FV3 (a model I have little faith in) has virtually no snow for York/Lanc counties.  The 3k NAM is solid.

Lancaster crew, what do we make of WGAL having the entirety of York and Lanc counties with basically a Trace to an inch or two?  I know they use their own "predictor" model.  

I think they take the "safe" bet as its a win - win.  To the low end if a trace, snow haters are happy....to the high end, if they say 2" and we get 3-4" most people knew it was coming and most wont measure to say "you were wrong".  They dont count inches like us weenies do.  

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Mostly holds but gets tighter around the edges with the mix line.  Keeps encroaching a wee bit for those of us in Lanc.  Could be a tight one down this way.  But then again, when is it not ha.

If were using history as a guide, history proves this point more times than not and despite what the models show we've seen this rodeo a few times and as i've been saying for days, have always factored that in based on pattern depicted.  Making cold air is not easy for us LSV'rs.  Never has been and its all about the rates. 

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is from 6z but the wind field associated with the LLJ paints almost a perfect picture of where I think that mix line could set up most stubbornly Saturday evening as the southeasterlies get cranking......

850wh.us_ma.png

I'm right on the edge too.

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