Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Speaking of Mesos (and I do agree that the HRRR at 48 is too far out to take too much from but for discussion) the SLP is up in Tennessee on Saturday morning on today's 12Z HRRR. It started climbing north before getting to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I just think it’s boiling down to the antecedent airmass in place and the storm evolution itself. We’re set up fairly decently for this event as far as features in place but the antecedent cold isn’t very impressive. The high is there but it doesn’t seem like it’s being progged to be very efficient with drawing the cold air associated with the high into the system much at all until the storm gets going more off the coast under New England when it’s past us. This is where I think the earlier miller B solutions would have been better for us. A more developed primary trying to come up and transferring under us would have established the northeasterly flow to draw more cold air from the high. This has become pretty much a straight miller A that’s winding up later and making the event here pretty much an quicker hitting 8-10hr one for the best precip… and it’s not pulling in more cold during the event in time to push the rain/snow line in our region. Surface low track is going to be key and a little bit of difference is going to go a long way either direction in that LSV southern tier. Great read as always. Good luck out there, you lucky bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Today should be a nice day but will feel colder this PM as winds increase from the NW. Colder tonight and tomorrow with temps struggling to escape the low to mid 30's tomorrow. Snow should arrive by midday on Saturday with the best chance of any minor accumulations before the turn to rain being further west and north across the area. Dry and seasonable to start the new work week but snow looks to arrive again on Tuesday before quickly changing to rain. That storm could be quite impactful with heavy rain and wind across the entire area. Records for today: High 67 (1950) / 3 below zero (1918) / Rain 1.55" (1944) / Snow 4.5" (1905) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 51 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Been studying the overnight runs and I think the writing is on the wall for us down here in the SE part of the LSV. This was mine and Training's and some other's fear all along. Just seen this movie too many times before with the strong coastal Low warming the mid-levels with ocean air when it gets ramped up. I think most of the Mesos will start to show copious mixing issues over the next 24-48 hours. Reducing our forecast for most of Lancaster to 1-3", and 2-4" for anyone SE of the Gettysburg-Harrisburg-Lebanon-Reading line. Although I do think this is one of those scenarios where Elizabethtown could do a good bit better than Lancaster City, with the most prolonged rain/snow/sleet battle setting up somewhere around NW Lancaster County. Also, marginal surface temps will make for less efficient accumulation (certainly less than 10:1), particularly when rates lighten up. Overall, a bit of a disappointment considering where things stood for most of the week but I'll still be happy to see snow and cheer on those in the money. As always, put me in Laporte ha. Not much time this morning, but had to comment on this - terrific post. A post made using 3 different tools to get to your numbers: 1) Basic met knowledge (ocean water temps, screaming SE winds, etc.) 2) History - history tells us SO much 3) Current guidance For those reasons, I love your post. Specifically, your amounts. Based on the above 3 criteria, your numbers reflect that perfectly. My honest fear here...I've seen a few people say in the past 12-24 hours that guidance won't move much more. Oh, yes it still can. It's still "only" Thursday morning. It's not unreasonable to think that this system can't move 50-75 miles in either a positive or negative direction for us. And with that, what worries me most is #2 above. I'm just not convinced that this isn't going to trend even worse for a lot of us. Time will tell. Again, great post by you! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not much time this morning, but had to comment on this - terrific post. A post made using 3 different tools to get to your numbers: 1) Basic met knowledge (ocean water temps, screaming SE winds, etc.) 2) History - history tells us SO much 3) Current guidance For those reasons, I love your post. Specifically, your amounts. Based on the above 3 criteria, your numbers reflect that perfectly. My honest fear here...I've seen a few people say in the past 12-24 hours that guidance won't move much more. Oh, yes it still can. It's still "only" Thursday morning. It's not unreasonable to think that this system can't move 50-75 miles in either a positive or negative direction for us. And with that, what worries me most is #2 above. I'm just not convinced that this isn't going to trend even worse for a lot of us. Time will tell. Again, great post by you! Agree on your #2. History weighs most of all 3 of your points.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nam is not following the HRRR and is staying as a pure Miller A through 42. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Thanks to S&S and other bozos sharing snow maps, the entire area thinks we're getting a significant storm. It is just unbelievable. The general public cannot handle seeing the computer model data because they take it as a forecast. People will be legitimately shocked if we get 1 or 2 inches washed away by rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Agree on your #2. History weighs most of all 3 of your points. . I've been asked in the past where I get my thoughts from - and I always say "history". It matters. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Huge wind event coming next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM has 1006 Low directly over TN/NC border at 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Thanks to S&S and other bozos sharing snow maps, the entire area thinks we're getting a significant storm. It is just unbelievable. The general public cannot handle seeing the computer model data because they take it as a forecast. People will be legitimately shocked if we get 1 or 2 inches washed away by rain. We've had how many snow maps posted in this very thread? Shoot, a few days ago, some of those maps were suggesting that I was in line for 17 -20". And people wonder why I despise maps. I know that they're going to get into the hands of people that will exploit them and use them to rile up the unknowledgeable public. I was asked to schedule a Teams call for tomorrow at noon to discuss our operating schedule for the weekend. Associates have been asking if they're going to be held to the attendance policy if they can't get themselves dug out to get to work. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Snow and rain starting in SW PA mid-morning Sat on the Nam. Nam struggling with two areas lowest pressure but primary is off SC coast at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: NAM has 1006 Low directly over TN/NC border at 48. It is a Dual Barrel Low it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Transfers to coast at SN/NC border as a 1007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10am: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Very weak set of lows and fighting to see which one shows as primary on the Nam panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 At 18z Sat snow breaking out across most of southern half of PA as 1005 climbs the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 While I’m at it might as well address the other event that’s quickly on the heels of our weekend system slated for Tuesday before we really get honed into observing the weekend event. I guess it’s sort of the elephant in the room in regards to how much of the snow that does get put down on Saturday lasts. Gotta address the bad with the good, I suppose. Obviously poised to be a cutter, and it looks like it‘s going to be a bomb. Overnight Euro had it going under 970 crossing western Lake Erie, GFS was 980ish. This is likely to be a pretty high/multi-faceted impact system for C-PA. Wind/Hydro look like the main threats, with wintry impacts on the front end possible in the interior central PA counties. Euro/GFS have a 70-80kt+ southeasterly 850mb jet thru PA on the front side and obviously strong winds on the backside as well. Frontal passage could easily involve severe in the wind dept with that kind of a low level jet if some part of the southern tier briefly gets into the warm sector. Euro was more suggestive of such things. GFS held more CAD and 6z tried to secondary toward the coast. Either way I think the Sus Valley is looking like mainly rain for this particular event, which would invite flooding potential. These things were all mentioned in CTP’s morning disco. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Moderate to heavy snow across almost all of PA at 4pm Sat with 540 line draped across N Lancaster Co. 1005 continues to climb off of NC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Moderate to heavy snow across almost all of PA at 4pm Sat with 540 line draped across N Lancaster Co. 1005 continues to climb off of NC coast. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 At 57 the OH Valley Primary, which was the new low spawned a few panels before, is totally ceding to the coastal but the coastal only down to 1005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: While I’m at it might as well address the other event that’s quickly on the heels of our weekend system slated for Tuesday before we really get honed into observing the weekend event. I guess it’s sort of the elephant in the room in regards to how much of the snow that does get put down on Saturday lasts. Gotta address the bad with the good, I suppose. Obviously poised to be a cutter, and it looks like it‘s going to be a bomb. Overnight Euro had it going under 970 crossing western Lake Erie, GFS was 980ish. This is likely to be a pretty high/multi-faceted impact system for C-PA. Wind/Hydro look like the main threats, with wintry impacts on the front end possible in the interior central PA counties. Euro/GFS have a 70-80kt+ southeasterly 850mb jet thru PA on the front side and obviously strong winds on the backside as well. Frontal passage could easily involve severe in the wind dept with that kind of a low level jet if some part of the southern tier briefly gets into the warm sector. Euro was more suggestive of such things. GFS held more CAD and 6z tried to secondary toward the coast. Either way I think the Sus Valley is looking like mainly rain for this particular event, which would invite flooding potential. These things were all mentioned in CTP’s morning disco. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on Tuesday. I brought this up yesterday as it seems like a very high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Great read as always. Good luck out there, you lucky bugger. Thanks we’ll see how it goes. I’ll feel better when/if I’m measuring non-digital snow haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At 57 the OH Valley Primary, which was the new low spawned a few panels before, is totally ceding to the coastal but the coastal only down to 1005. That is better cold air stays drawn in. I like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Mixing line begins to infiltrate most of york and lanc counties by 7pm with skew-T showing issues around 900mb. 1004 off coast of NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, paweather said: That is better cold air stays drawn in. I like this run. Very convoluted. The pressure panels show it carrying two areas of lowest pressure for several panels and neither really strengthens much. 850's are lost well into PA Sat morning due but come crashing back as the Tn/Oh Valley prescence lost impact. So, it started as a Miller A but really went off the tracks. It looks like the low is jumping places but it is the Nam changing where it is placing the lowest pressure for that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Mixing line begins to infiltrate most of york and lanc counties by 7pm with skew-T showing issues around 900mb. 1004 off coast of NC/VA border. One thing I'm seeing is that the "thump" only lasts roughly 3 hours or so, and once that initial thump moves east, we mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 At 10pm mixing has shot up through Schuylkill County as precip starts to dry up. 1002 well off MD/DE coast. A couple to perhaps a few inches for most of Lanc/York. Everyone else ~ 6 per Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Very convoluted. The pressure panels show it carrying two lows for several panels and neither really strengthens much. 850's are lost well into PA Sat morning but come crashing back as the Tn/Oh Valley Prescence lose impact. So it started as a Miller A but really went off the tracks. Yeah in the end nice 4-6" snow before dryslot and/or light mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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