Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Saw this on the MA so passing on. I do not spend the $$$ to get it. Does not include out farther North or West members unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Sounds like there will be a lot of disappointment on this forum. Unless Blizz can pull off a Hail Mary later on. The only model overnight that wasn’t half decent for the southern tier was the Euro. The rest of the CTP, especially near I-81 & points north & west are still in really good shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6z euro. Better for eastern Pa locales . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Sounds like there will be a lot of disappointment on this forum. Unless Blizz can pull off a Hail Mary later on. An expectations issue...we started high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z euro for reference . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 If we don't stop the bleeding today, preferably reverse direction, I'm toast. I recall discussions at easternwx years ago that the reason for slow north drifts was because modeling incorrectly forecasted the strength of blocking/high pressure to our N/NE. If that was, in fact, the problem, they haven't fixed it yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nice improvement on the 6z Euro vs. the 0z Euro, especially for the LSV. 6z top 0z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If we don't stop the bleeding today, preferably reverse direction, I'm toast. I recall discussions at easternwx years ago that the reason for slow north drifts was because modeling incorrectly forecasted the strength of blocking/high pressure to our N/NE. If that was, in fact, the problem, they haven't fixed it yet. This panel is sobering... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If we don't stop the bleeding today, preferably reverse direction, I'm toast. I recall discussions at easternwx years ago that the reason for slow north drifts was because modeling incorrectly forecasted the strength of blocking/high pressure to our N/NE. If that was, in fact, the problem, they haven't fixed it yet. Amen brother. And that is exactly what we have seen with less confluence and a weaker high than what was projected 3 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This panel is sobering... Yep. We need either cold air or heavy rates from strong vertical velocities which will cool the column. Light precip will not do the trick. So when looking at modeling, I'm going right to qpf because anything under .9", maybe .8", will work. Mt. Holly Springs on north imho would probaby be all snow despite qpf, but that could be wrong in 24 hrs or less. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On the subject of the high, it is progged to be in a fairly similar location and a few MB's difference in strength on the Dec 31 6Z GFS as today's 6Z GFS at 7PM Sunday. The major difference is the SLP is hundreds of miles farther East and weaker than it was on the Dec 31 panel and there is a more robust Northern Stream kicker behind it now. The 50/50 low is also positioned better on the Dec 31 panel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Bubbler86 said: On the subject of the high, it is progged to be in a fairly similar location and just a few MB's difference in strength on the Dec 31 6Z GFS as today's 6Z GFS at 7PM Sunday. The major difference is the SLP is hundreds of miles farther East than it was on the Dec 31 panel and there is a more robust Northern Stream kicker behind it now. The 50/50 low is low positioned better at Dec 31. Not to mention the Atlantic is still on fire. You need to be in Manitoba to escape the ocean influence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Well new Cansips has a great January. I just wish MR modeling would cooperate because they're showing nothing but lake cutters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Been studying the overnight runs and I think the writing is on the wall for us down here in the SE part of the LSV. This was mine and Training's and some other's fear all along. Just seen this movie too many times before with the strong coastal Low warming the mid-levels with ocean air when it gets ramped up. I think most of the Mesos will start to show copious mixing issues over the next 24-48 hours. Reducing our forecast for most of Lancaster to 1-3", and 2-4" for anyone SE of the Gettysburg-Harrisburg-Lebanon-Reading line. Although I do think this is one of those scenarios where Elizabethtown could do a good bit better than Lancaster City, with the most prolonged rain/snow/sleet battle setting up somewhere around NW Lancaster County. Also, marginal surface temps will make for less efficient accumulation (certainly less than 10:1), particularly when rates lighten up. Overall, a bit of a disappointment considering where things stood for most of the week but I'll still be happy to see snow and cheer on those in the money. As always, put me in Laporte ha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looks like 6z Eps increased slightly snowfall south and east of Harrisburg. Not by much, but a little nonetheless. Beats a decrease! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Well new Cansips has a great January. I just wish MR modeling would cooperate because they're showing nothing but lake cutters. MU posted the 10 day Euro and was about as weenie as it gets for the depiction. We’ll see if it translates to actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, GrandmasterB said: MU posted the 10 day Euro and was about as weenie as it gets for the depiction. We’ll see if it translates to actual snow. I saw the 10 day Euro and honestly thought the same thing. Then I remembered the forecasts for this weekend over the past 2 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I saw the 10 day Euro and honestly thought the same thing. Then I remembered the forecasts for this weekend over the past 2 days... Agreed. We have invested ungodly amounts of time shoveling potential and patterns the last few years. You would think that at some point the general theme would be to say, "That pattern has potential, let's play it out" vs. "Jan will be rockin!" Models (ensembles or op's) are flawed 3 days out....how can we count on something 3x that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 My call: a .25-4” gradient event for MDT and S/SE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 When do we start looking at Mesos and less on global models?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 So I fired up the snow blower for the first time in nearly 2 years in anticipation. Guaranteed kiss of death every time. Sorry guys, next time I'll wait. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Superstorm said: When do we start looking at Mesos and less on global models? . When there's no hope on the globals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: When do we start looking at Mesos and less on global models? . We started when 84 hours out. They are bleeding as well. Good to see the Euro back track on the bleeding though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Festus said: So I fired up the snow blower for the first time in nearly 2 years in anticipation. Guaranteed kiss of death every time. Sorry guys, next time I'll wait. Saw my neighbor doing it yesterday and thought the same thing. I rebuilt the carb on mine this fall and got her running smooth, since I didnt start it once last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: If we don't stop the bleeding today, preferably reverse direction, I'm toast. I recall discussions at easternwx years ago that the reason for slow north drifts was because modeling incorrectly forecasted the strength of blocking/high pressure to our N/NE. If that was, in fact, the problem, they haven't fixed it yet. Never heard what the problem was attributed to...but I've never stopped factoring that into my expectations. I'm stickin w/ my 3-6 gun as nothing overnight scared me off. Actually 6z euro that anthony posted was rather encouraging, as euro has been running warm. Regardless, I'm on the razors edge as usual, and have kept my expectations in check for the LSV, but as i suggested yesterday, Altoona (MAG) to Poconos are looking pretty sweet for a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 39 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Well new Cansips has a great January. I just wish MR modeling would cooperate because they're showing nothing but lake cutters. GEFS and GEPS have been hinting at LR basin look, and tellies are supportive of it. Hoping for ENS guidance to increase that look as it would be a nice pattern to get stuck in for a while. Frozen bowlin balls from the west w/ a 2 finger palm grip for extra left spin to hit us king pins here in the east. and yes....thats how I bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 In my pre-event pity party I'm preparing for myself on Sunday if necessary, I was looking at modeling for next week. 6z Eps have over 1" of rain between the hours of 120-144, and it's not over. So at least it's comforting to know that by Wednesday morning, the ground will be brown and sogged regardless of whether 12" or 1.2" of snow falls over the weekend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Never heard what the problem was attributed to...but I've never stopped factoring that into my expectations. I'm stickin w/ my 3-6 gun as nothing overnight scared me off. Actually 6z euro that anthony posted was rather encouraging, as euro has been running warm. Regardless, I'm on the razors edge as usual, and have kept my expectations in check for the LSV, but as i suggested yesterday, Altoona (MAG) to Poconos are looking pretty sweet for a nice event. The 6Z euro has given me hope. Let’s see if we can get a little more bleeding to our side. I ain’t asking for a lot.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, anotherman said: Not to mention the Atlantic is still on fire. You need to be in Manitoba to escape the ocean influence. I just think it’s boiling down to the antecedent airmass in place and the storm evolution itself. We’re set up fairly decently for this event as far as features in place but the antecedent cold isn’t very impressive. The high is there but it doesn’t seem like it’s being progged to be very efficient with drawing the cold air associated with the high into the system much at all until the storm gets going more off the coast under New England when it’s past us. This is where I think the earlier miller B solutions would have been better for us. A more developed primary trying to come up and transferring under us would have established the northeasterly flow to draw more cold air from the high. This has become pretty much a straight miller A that’s winding up later and making the event here pretty much an quicker hitting 8-10hr one for the best precip… and it’s not pulling in more cold during the event in time to push the rain/snow line in our region. Surface low track is going to be key and a little bit of difference is going to go a long way either direction in that LSV southern tier. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Been studying the overnight runs and I think the writing is on the wall for us down here in the SE part of the LSV. This was mine and Training's and some other's fear all along. Just seen this movie too many times before with the strong coastal Low warming the mid-levels with ocean air when it gets ramped up. I think most of the Mesos will start to show copious mixing issues over the next 24-48 hours. Reducing our forecast for most of Lancaster to 1-3", and 2-4" for anyone SE of the Gettysburg-Harrisburg-Lebanon-Reading line. Although I do think this is one of those scenarios where Elizabethtown could do a good bit better than Lancaster City, with the most prolonged rain/snow/sleet battle setting up somewhere around NW Lancaster County. Also, marginal surface temps will make for less efficient accumulation (certainly less than 10:1), particularly when rates lighten up. Overall, a bit of a disappointment considering where things stood for most of the week but I'll still be happy to see snow and cheer on those in the money. As always, put me in Laporte ha. In truth, I'm not sure how many of us LSV/Lanco folk, were ever over expecting to be in the big stuff down here. Pattern never really suggested it, and thats why I've stated things about the column is going to be marginal for us, and dynamic cooling in higher qpf was needed for us. For the norther and westers, they should be fine. Nothing we've seen has been supportive of big snow here. Factor in knowing normal biases and climo for your backyard, and it should temeper any big expectations for US. Norther/westers....congrats in advance. For me anyway, my efforts have been to see a storm in for CTP during a time that pattern really hasnt looked great and was written off by some. if I get into the better stuff, then all the better, but my 3-6 for lanco is where my flag is placed, and I'll keep it there until shot down or we take the hill. Everyone has seen our area ranging from 1-8" model dependent, and I'm not gonna say well 25% of this and that worked, as I'm not that good and will not search for ways to say I was right. No matter the end result, the forum is staring down a decent winter event. Thats a win no matter how you slice it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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