mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, paweather said: Good Nam run not what we like but still time for adjustments. Like I said, we need a couple of runs/cycles before Nam gets closer to being right. This was a good first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Well, then it reverts back to its small precip shield from before. Called that one too soon, not a naming. Since we are out of this one I'm more curious about how this evolving but is it not concerning that the usual overdone model is showing such little precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is a nice improvement at the surface over the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Real test is up shortly with Rgem. Will it hold? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Good Nam run not what we like but still time for adjustments. I still do not buy the precip shield...thermals, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: This is a nice improvement at the surface over the last 3 runs. Yes, it’s slowly getting there & is closer to having the general idea of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Midwest/Great Lakes low was farther NW on the most recent run. Need that low to keep it's distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Midwest/Great Lakes low was farther NW on the most recent run. Need that low to keep it's distance. Yea, that has been a constant thorn with the Nam runs the last few cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Heights are higher along the east coast, though there appears to be a better press from the confluence. Fwiw, Srefs are warm...real warm as in north of Harrisburg if you want more than 1". 21z SREF wasn’t so bad & gets 4 inches to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 21z SREF wasn’t so bad & gets 4 inches to Harrisburg. I looked at Pivotal. Hmmmm....that's good news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Rgem held imby thank God. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I looked at Pivotal. Hmmmm....that's good news. It is always good news on WB snow maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Icon at 69 hrs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024010400&fh=69 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon at 69 hrs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024010400&fh=69 Sweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem held imby thank God. RGEM held serve at 0z ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon at 69 hrs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024010400&fh=69 ICON at 0z actually improved the snow amount over 18z in Harrisburg by an inch & now has 7.9 by Sunday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z GFS gets Warning level snow to the Susquehanna Valley, but cut back from 18z due to less precip. The 18z had over 1 inch of precip, while the 0z was near .7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS gets Warning level snow to the Susquehanna Valley, but cut back from 18z due to less precip. The 18z had over 1 inch of precip, while the 0z was near .7 6-7” I’ll take it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The opening run of the CTP is out. First winter map issuance from them regarding the weekend storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Talk about mass confusion, wtf! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 how do the overnight models look ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The opening run of the CTP is out. First winter map issuance from them regarding the weekend storm. Most of the 6z models are in line with CTP’s early call. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 27:s forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 27:s forecast: Pretty much matches WGAL. They put a fork in us down here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Pretty much matches WGAL. They put a fork in us down here… Sounds like there will be a lot of disappointment on this forum. Unless Blizz can pull off a Hail Mary later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Taking the snowiest model I noticed this AM....2M temps during the height of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Taking the snowiest model I noticed this AM....2M temps during the height of the snow. Either white rain or a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Either white rain or a paste bomb . Really minimizes blowing as depicted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The only silver lining of this fizzling is S&S crashing and burning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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