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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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1 minute ago, canderson said:

The Euro had a very warm bias this past summer. It often had temps several degrees higher than any other model and in reality. 
 

This is true and a great point but I think that relates more to surface temps, whereas I fear this is the Euro sniffing out the warm layers aloft ahead of the other globals. Would not be at all surprised to see the Mesos start showing the same tomorrow. Really hope to be wrong. 

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is important and I agree. Column can be cooled with dynamic rates.

On the subject of DP's and the surface, they rise really fast on the GFS.  So, all the cooling is over in my locale by 1PM on Sat.    A tad later on the CMC and Euro.   So, they help at first but of course when it is saturated, we are going to need help from those rates pulling down some of that sweet, sweet upper 20's and low 30's 850/925 temps (non Euro) to keep us cool....almost like a nuclear reactor. 

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7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event). 

It is also 3mb stronger for our LP at h51 vs 18z (1004 on 0z), but vort isn't really noticably more intense. Heights are higher out in front over us.

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7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event). 

Heights are higher along the east coast, though there appears to be a better press from the confluence.

Fwiw, Srefs are warm...real warm as in north of Harrisburg if you want more than 1".

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If the Nam corrects positively for us, it would probably take at least a couple runs.

Sure, some things are better leading in, some are worse. So much sporadic s/w energy to model properly. If the NAM is honing in the wrong place, it's not going be close to the right solution. Not saying its flat out wrong, but easy to get derailed. 

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