paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Someday, in a faraway galaxy, he is going to forecast something lower than any other met. He has been right about the pattern in reading his posts on weatherbell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 18z EPS still has Warning level snow for all of the Susquehanna Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, paweather said: He has been right about the pattern in reading his posts on weatherbell. Absolutely, he nailed the pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, canderson said: The Euro had a very warm bias this past summer. It often had temps several degrees higher than any other model and in reality. This is true and a great point but I think that relates more to surface temps, whereas I fear this is the Euro sniffing out the warm layers aloft ahead of the other globals. Would not be at all surprised to see the Mesos start showing the same tomorrow. Really hope to be wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is important and I agree. Column can be cooled with dynamic rates. On the subject of DP's and the surface, they rise really fast on the GFS. So, all the cooling is over in my locale by 1PM on Sat. A tad later on the CMC and Euro. So, they help at first but of course when it is saturated, we are going to need help from those rates pulling down some of that sweet, sweet upper 20's and low 30's 850/925 temps (non Euro) to keep us cool....almost like a nuclear reactor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 DT's first call is after 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I believe JB is going for 6-12 for most of us in Pa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: DT's first call is after 11pm. Lol, I can’t wait until the First Guess, Early call, Final call & then revise it all during the storm! Cant wait for his super confusing maps too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Here is Accuweather’s early map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is Accuweather’s early map. Not bad for AW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Long range HRRR sure looks juicy at 7pm Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I can’t wait until the First Guess, Early call, Final call & then revise it all during the storm! Cant wait for his super confusing maps too! It should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The Nam anticipation is thick in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam anticipation is thick in here. I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lots of vorts flying around on the Nam at 54. 3 pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event). It is also 3mb stronger for our LP at h51 vs 18z (1004 on 0z), but vort isn't really noticably more intense. Heights are higher out in front over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event). Heights are higher along the east coast, though there appears to be a better press from the confluence. Fwiw, Srefs are warm...real warm as in north of Harrisburg if you want more than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Primary SLP noticeably north at 60 with a warmer presentation of the precip shield to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Definitely a better press of confluence in the north, but warmer antecedent airmass over us... purely a southern wave makes it tough to tie in much cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Primary SLP noticeably north at 60 with a warmer presentation of the precip shield to the north. If the Nam corrects positively for us, it would probably take at least a couple runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If the Nam corrects positively for us, it would probably take at least a couple runs. Sure, some things are better leading in, some are worse. So much sporadic s/w energy to model properly. If the NAM is honing in the wrong place, it's not going be close to the right solution. Not saying its flat out wrong, but easy to get derailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HUGE changes at 63 and 66. Primary jumping into the TN Valley and then was blocked or transferred East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nam ain't bad thru 69 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: HUGE changes at 63 and 66. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 A right proper Naming coming for Southern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A right proper Naming coming for Southern PA. Well, then it reverts back to its small precip shield from before. Called that one too soon, not a naming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Well, then it reverts back to its small precip shield from before. Some things to like about this run, not a bad LP track either. Better outcome than the 12 & 18z dumpster fires 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, DDweatherman said: Some things to like about this run, not a bad LP track either. Better outcome than the 12 & 18z dumpster fires Some eventual rain for the LSV as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Well, then it reverts back to its small precip shield from before. Called that one too soon, not a naming. Good Nam run not what we like but still time for adjustments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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