Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Southern juice almost upon us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Can I get an Ouch? Dewpoints are low; gonna take some time to saturate the column. Higher elevation=less time to saturate=greater accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Caveman said: Dewpoints are low; gonna take some time to saturate the column. Higher elevation=less time to saturate=greater accumulation. I am looking at this from a WSW 3-6" angle....things have settled backwards a bit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Follow the “finger” of snow and that generally will be where the best band will be. Looks to want to ride right across the Turnpike. So 5-10 miles either side of the turnpike ultimately may have the greatest snowfall amounts. We will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Follow the “finger” of snow and that generally will be where the best band will be. Looks to want to ride right across the Turnpike. So 5-10 miles either side of the turnpike ultimately may have the greatest snowfall amounts. We will see That is indeed where modeling has been moving it to over the last 12-18 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ready to file this in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong, and then there's even more" cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ready to file this in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong, and then there's even more" cabinet.Or when that dark blue keeps shifting north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Bubbler, we might be OK. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KLWX/standard https://radar.weather.gov/station/kpbz/standard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ready to file this in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong, and then there's even more" cabinet.There is no way to accurately forecast a 10-15 mile wide band of subsidence Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks moisture starved atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, mitchnick said: Bubbler, we might be OK. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KLWX/standard https://radar.weather.gov/station/kpbz/standard I am not throwing in the towel but model wise, we are toast. Nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ruin said: Looks moisture starved atm If you ever post that a storm looks primed to hammer us, I am going to run for the hills! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Or when that dark blue keeps shifting north. . Yeah, I said to Bubbler we need to hope the MD qpf drifts north. Probably will the way this keeps shifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 41/22 and thickening clouds. Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: There is no way to accurately forecast a 10-15 mile wide band of subsidence Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I know, but I enjoy playing the victim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Bubbler86 said: 41/22 and thickening clouds. Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. I told my wife we may be taking a ride this evening, but it's really hauling butt east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 41/22 and thickening clouds. Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. Your readings are precisely where I am at the moment...40.5 / 22.3 with mostly cloudy skies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I know, but I enjoy playing the victim. Ed Russo Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here is a wider view of the 18z GFS for everyone that doesn’t live in the southern tier… Everything looks right on track for CTP’s call at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: There is no way to accurately forecast a 10-15 mile wide band of subsidence Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast. Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast. Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.Pull up those 700mb meso mapsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is a wider view of the 18z GFS for everyone that doesn’t live in the southern tier… Everything looks right on track for CTP’s call at this time. I posted a Kuch map for all of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast. Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.700mb850mbJust north is key I believe Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 My dew point is down to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If you ever post that a storm looks primed to hammer us, I am going to run for the hills! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Latest HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thundersnow in St. Louis. Where that lift sets up will be pounding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaynesboroWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 41/22 and thickening clouds. Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. Howdy, neighbor! 40/22 38% humidity. A lot of dryness to overcome. Plenty of virga overhead right now but that does us no good. I love winter and snow but I'm not feeling it with this one. Yes, maybe 2"-3" but it's looking like higher amounts will be just to our north and south. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but sucking exhaust from those two Maxima's doesn't add up to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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