Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: It’s a little odd seeing the Euro more juiced than the NAM. The Icon will be here to cheer us up shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nam holds onto the precip longer by pulling in some ocean moisture. Methinks that's a sign of future qpf increases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Nam holds onto the precip longer by pulling in some ocean moisture. Methinks that's a sign of future qpf increases. I noticed a little more coastal development on the NAM vs its 6Z run. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I noticed a little more coastal development on the NAM vs its 6Z run. Something to watch. It was showing that at 6Z as well but actually has a high MB at 12Z for the same time slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Icon will be here to cheer us up shortly. I can’t believe I’m about to look at the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Rgem much slower than the other 12Z's so far. It does not start in the LSV until 6Z Sat Am and continues until about noon Sat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I can’t believe I’m about to look at the ICON. Looks similar through 36. ICON PBP magic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 49 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: It’s a little odd seeing the Euro more juiced than the NAM. Doesn't the NAM struggle with clipper qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon is a little less....10:1 actually higher in the LSV but here is the Kuch. LSV temps are near 32 for much of the snow so a little lower than 10:1 in the LSV. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Increasing clouds today and a bit milder so we should see a lot more melting today with highs near 40 degrees. A chance of sprinkle or flurry tonight. A little chillier tomorrow and then snow arrives again toward midnight tomorrow night and should be done by 9am Saturday morning. At this point the NWS is forecasting a general 1" to 3" across the area. Colder Sunday and then a gradual warming trend next week. Chester County Records for today: High 77 Phoenixville (1949) / Low 11 below Coatesville (1899) / Precipitation 2.25" Glenmoore (1984) / Snow 13" Coatesville (1958) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Doesn't the NAM struggle with clipper qpf? many times qpf from clippers is exaggerated east of mtns, but not as bad for norther westers where elevation keeps them in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, canderson said: Doesn't the NAM struggle with clipper qpf? No idea, but let’s go with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: No idea, but let’s go with it. fwiw tonights clipper never was meant to be much of anything round here. Northers maybe an inch. tomorrow night isnt really a clipper, but a energy thats riding the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is…not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: fwiw tonights clipper never was meant to be much of anything round here. Northers maybe an inch. tomorrow night isnt really a clipper, but a energy thats riding the boundary I guess that's true, I thought of tomorrow being a clipper but you're right it's much more of a boundary. Thanks for correcting that for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, GrandmasterB said: GFS is…not great it lead the southern charge for the last event, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, canderson said: I guess that's true, I thought of tomorrow being a clipper but you're right it's much more of a boundary. Thanks for correcting that for me. all good pal. Just clarifying cause tonights "event' is a clipper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Good morning all. After a snow-induced, radiational cooling night I managed to drop down to 15.1 degrees this morning. Coldest temperature of this month so far. With filtered sunshine I'm back up to 33.1 at 10:49am. I still have complete snow cover both in my back yard (which faces north) and in my front yard (which faces south). Looking forward to tomorrow night's event. I wanted to take a moment to clarify the conversation earlier between @Bubbler86and @Blizzard of 93 and the different maps. Bliz frequently posts two surface maps that are 3 hours apart. In this case he was showing hour 57 in the first and hour 60 in the second. Because the time interval is 3 hours and not 6 hours, it leads to confusion because each map is showing the accumulated precip for the preceding 6 hours (not 3). That creates an overlap of 3 hours where hour 57 is showing precip from hour 51 through hour 57, while the hour 60 map is showing total precip between hour 54 and hour 60. If you don't look closely you could easily think that the second map is showing new, additional precip to add to the first map, thus the confusion. The 3-hour interval between the 2 maps is great for showing the movement of the "L" and how quickly or not quickly it is moving. I saw Bliz say that WB also gives precip maps with 3-hour intervals. Lining up the precip interval with the time interval removes any confusion. Bubbler's Pivotal map(s) is not the same depiction because it is showing the preceding 6-hour average of the precip intensity, not accumulated precip. If you want to see what is happening at the timestamp of that map you would want to post the composite reflectivity map of the timestamp. Then you accurately know where the snow has ended as of the timestamp hour. Finally, the Tropical TIdbits map from Bubbler is the map of the averaged 6-hour precip intensity/rate. The accumulated precip during the map interval is not shown. You would need to take the intensity range of that map and estimate the true qpf for each time interval. I hope this is not confusing. And, of course, if I have made a mistake with the info above, feel free to correct me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: it lead the southern charge for the last event, so there's that. It really didn’t, there were some models that were south all along, UK and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ggem 2mb lower slp. Should be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Good morning all. After a snow-induced, radiational cooling night I managed to drop down to 15.1 degrees this morning. Coldest temperature of this month so far. With filtered sunshine I'm back up to 33.1 at 10:49am. I still have complete snow cover both in my back yard (which faces north) and in my front yard (which faces south). Looking forward to tomorrow night's event. I wanted to take a moment to clarify the conversation earlier between @Bubbler86and @Blizzard of 93 and the different maps. Bliz frequently posts two surface maps that are 3 hours apart. In this case he was showing hour 57 in the first and hour 60 in the second. Because the time interval is 3 hours and not 6 hours, it leads to confusion because each map is showing the accumulated precip for the preceding 6 hours (not 3). That creates an overlap of 3 hours where hour 57 is showing precip from hour 51 through hour 57, while the hour 60 map is showing total precip between hour 54 and hour 60. If you don't look closely you could easily think that the second map is showing new, additional precip to add to the first map, thus the confusion. The 3-hour interval between the 2 maps is great for showing the movement of the "L" and how quickly or not quickly it is moving. I saw Bliz say that WB also gives precip maps with 3-hour intervals. Lining up the precip interval with the time interval removes any confusion. Bubbler's Pivotal map(s) is not the same depiction because it is showing the preceding 6-hour average of the precip intensity, not accumulated precip. If you want to see what is happening at the timestamp of that map you would want to post the composite reflectivity map of the timestamp. Then you accurately know where the snow has ended as of the timestamp hour. Finally, the Tropical TIdbits map from Bubbler is the map of the averaged 6-hour precip intensity/rate. The accumulated precip during the map interval is not shown. You would need to take the intensity range of that map and estimate the true qpf for each time interval. I hope this is not confusing. And, of course, if I have made a mistake with the info above, feel free to correct me. I was thinking most post maps showing radar/actual weather as of the time stamp re: the actual predicted radar/ground conditions at 12Z if the map is stamped 12Z. I thought the Pivotal maps I post are equivalent to a radar image/composite panel re: I think this is where the EC was predicting snow to be occurring at this time frame. I know on TT there are separate panels for radar and not, but I do not see that option on pivotal. The highlighted line below suggests to me this map is equivalent to a radar map. I could definitely be wrong but this was how I always took those maps. Until now I did not notice that the maps Blizz posted from WB were not time stamped radar maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was thinking most post maps showing radar/actual weather as of the time stamp re: the actual predicted radar/ground conditions at 12Z if the map is stamped 12Z. I thought the Pivotal maps I post are equivalent to a radar image/composite panel re: I think this is where the EC was predicting snow to be occurring at this time frame. I know on TT there are separate panels for radar and not, but I do not see that option on pivotal. The highlighted line below suggests to me this map is equivalent to a radar map. I could definitely be wrong but this was how I always took those maps. Until now I did not notice that the maps Blizz posted from WB were not time stamped radar maps. The only way to know for certain is if the sim radar option is offered. On Pivotal, USA products have sim radar but other models don't. Maybe WB or weathermodels.com offers them, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The only way to know for certain is if the sim radar option is offered. On Pivotal, USA products have sim radar but other models don't. Maybe WB or weathermodels.com offers them, idk. The problem with sim radar is it includes virga (at least I thought it did). Here is an example of GFS to compare. They are rarely perfectly matched though. I was told that the precip on the second panel not on the sim radar is the models prediction of drizzle/light precip that does not show on radar. It sounds like there is a some confusion on this from everyone including me. What would make senses is if the second panel included virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The problem with sim radar is it includes virga (at least I thought it did). Here is an example of GFS to compare. They are rarely perfectly matched though. I was told that the precip on the second panel not on the sim radar is the models prediction of drizzle/light precip that does not show on radar. It sounds like there is a some confusion on this from everyone including me. That's why I stick to what the best degreed mets use exclusively...snowfall maps! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If KMDT gets like 2.5" I believe they will be one of the only sites in the NE or Mid Atl above normal for yearSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: That's why I stick to what the best degreed mets use exclusively...snowfall maps! You are always using your previous job skill set to back out of stuff. LOL. If there is no snow map, it did not happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 44 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: GFS is…not great Short pump Jack :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 32 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It really didn’t, there were some models that were south all along, UK and CMC if you go back and toggle through, you'll see that CMC was south and corrected north as event neared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: If KMDT gets like 2.5" I believe they will be one of the only sites in the NE or Mid Atl above normal for year Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk yeah it appears that we are the lucky ones in the mid/north atlantic (outside of normal locals that usually cash in on temp/elevation sensitive events) Once again, I really feel for the winter related business/industries that rely on snow/cold. My snowmobile pals are in northern maine and while they have enough snow, its notably less than normal/expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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