Central PA Winter 23/24

[Blizzard of 93]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Should have mentioned that the 0z Euro had the system the Ggem had at the end of its run, but was too far north for most of the forum. Plenty of time to come south in keeping with the flavor of the season.

0z Gfs had it dumping a decent event but 6z went haywire.  It'll be back on the Gfs, of course.

This is good news to wake up to today. 
Hopefully we score a few inches on Saturday & then have a chance later next week as well to track.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is good news to wake up to today. 
Hopefully we score a few inches on Saturday & then have a chance later next week as well to track.

Yep, and after that I'm ok with closing up shop. Though I still think a flukey, late season event would be possible if the advertised SSW on the Eps occurs over the weekend. I'm thinking a cut-off, meandering low that drops big numbers often seen in March.

[Chris78]

The funny thing is once the ensembles went to Meh in the long range now we're starting to get some better looks from the Ops lol.

Go fiquire

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The funny thing is once the ensembles went to Meh in the long range now we're starting to get some better looks from the Ops lol.

Go fiquire

Because all forecasts past 5 days are 1 notch above a guess. They should put 50-75% of the money and resources currently used for anything beyond 7 days into short range modeling imho.

[Bubbler86]

29 here this Am.  Nice agreement among the GFS, Nam, Rgem and Icon this Am with the Friday night system.  Euro and UK Outliers showing it sliding through the Carolina's. 

I like the timing right now with snow Friday night and not losing Saturday for doing stuff. 

[Bubbler86]

As we get to the mid-point of a typical Feb (apologies to Leap year this year), MDT has had no BN days the entire month.  If today's ends up AN, probable with a low of only 32 so far, it will be the only February in the 2000's that this has happened.   I did not look back to see when the last time it happened past the year 2000.     MDT has reached the 40's or higher every day this month.  

Also, PennLive was wrong.  MDT did record 7.7" yesterday.  

 

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Yes, MDT did quite well yesterday with the 7.7 of snow.

If they get a few inches on Saturday, they could be near or possibly above normal for the season to date.

[Chris78]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Because all forecasts past 5 days are 1 notch above a guess. They should put 50-75% of the money and resources currently used for anything beyond 7 days into short range modeling imho.

Except for seasonal modeling in ninas.

I'm sure the depiction  from cansips of January 2025 will be spot on lol.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, MDT did quite well yesterday with the 7.7 of snow.

If they get a few inches on Saturday, they could be near or possibly above normal for the season to date.

This year could be one to remember for having normal or better snow despite being one of the warmest winters ever.  I am not going into the CC convo, just stating the facts in a vacuum of where we stand this year with 2 weeks left in Met winter.   I see nothing on the GFS to give any hope of putting a serious dent in the current AN departure for the month.  

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Except for seasonal modeling in ninas.

I'm sure the depiction  from cansips of January 2025 will be spot on lol.

LR Modeling keeps the MA LR thread in business.  They should put Google Ad's on there to monetize it. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Except for seasonal modeling in ninas.

I'm sure the depiction  from cansips of January 2025 will be spot on lol.

There are studies that Bluewave claims points to warm waters in the western Pac and Indian Ocean as the origin of our Pacific pattern problems. I'm not prepared to sign onto it, but as I  posted in the El Nino thread, I'm all in for a super Nina which would cool that area. Then starting in 25/26 winter, God willing, see how things look.

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

This year could be one to remember for having normal or better snow despite being one of the warmest winters ever.  I am not going into the CC convo, just stating the facts in a vacuum of one where we stand this year with 2 weeks left in Met winter.   I see nothing on the GFS to give any hope of putting a serious dent in the current AN departure for the month.  

 

 

 

JB said yesterday that going into March if you like snow you'll get it 

. But those that like snow will be complaing that it all melted, sounds like cold one day then warm the next pattern.

[Chris78]

Just now, mitchnick said:

There are studies that Bluewave claims points to warm waters in the western Pac and Indian Ocean as the origin of our Pacific pattern problems. I'm not prepared to sign onto it, but as I  posted in the El Nino thread, I'm all in for a super Nina which would cool that area. Then starting in 25/26 winter, God willing, see how things look.

Definitely need something to change the Pacific. It's been a thorn for several years now.

Ussually ninas are better further north but for mby I fully expect next winter to be a total dumpster fire. 

Right now it looks pretty bleak.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro for Saturday 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z RGEM is nice, especially for the southern tier.

(see, I didn’t forget about the southern tier again, lol!)

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro for Saturday 

We'll wait for DT to comment on King Euro!

[ChescoWx]

We have had some off and on light snow flurries this morning across the area and in fact are seeing some now here in East Nantmeal. The sun will return today and while we will be below average with temps not too far above freezing we will see some good snow melt with the increasing sun angle. Cloudier tomorrow with a couple clipper type systems the first one tomorrow night and another toward Saturday AM. The first one may bring a coating of snow while the second one on Saturday could bring a small accumulation of snow especially to more southern areas. Temps will remain below normal through the weekend.

Records for today: High 63 (1949) / Low 4 below (1979) / Precipitation 1.25" (2007) / Snow 10.0" (1899)

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

We'll wait for DT to comment on King Euro!

That system has the potential to give him snow...he should be all over it.   Short Pump Jack. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of only 31 here. Should drop much lower tonight. Glad to see the trends are good for a nice little event to kick off the weekend. 

[mahantango#1]

There are still over 27000 without power in PPL coverage area including some of my neighbors in this rural area.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

All modeling seems to have improved for the weekend, including 6z runs. Icon remains the best, so I've attached it.

P.s. Ggem has a bomb at the end of its run. It was close at 12z, but adjusted for a home run at 0z.

 

I just peeked and saw that home run, and verbatim it would still have runners yet to cross the plate...

Nice to see chances continuing to pop up.  Speaking of chances....wondering what the chance is for the upcoming weekend event to slip further south?  GFS has been trending, but fortunately therese enough consensus that goalposts seem to be a little more narrow for this one.

[Bubbler86]

Model verification for MDT's 7.7" of snow on the normal Global and Meso models at 48 and 24 hours out from 12Z Yesterday (Sun and Mon 12Z Runs).    Cannot see the HRRR's on Pivotal at that point.  Numbers are rounded and pivotal keeps switching from 10:1 or Kuch so tried to double check.    EC and UK are 10:1. 

Sun 12Z

GFS-6"

Nam12K-3"

UK-3"

EC-2"

Fv3-1"

Rgem-1"

Nam 3k-1"

GEM-1"

ICON-0

 

Mon 12Z

Nam 3k-6"

GFS-5"

Nam12K-5"

Fv3-4"

GEM-3"

UK-3"

ICON-2"

EC-2"

Rgem-1"

 

 

[Bubbler86]

@Coop_Mason what the?  Bottom half of your own county.  

 

...Adams County...
2 WNW Lake Meade             7.0 in    0814 AM 02/13   Public
3 NNW York Springs           6.0 in    0800 AM 02/13   Public
Biglerville 3.0 WSW          5.3 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS
Biglerville                  5.2 in    0745 AM 02/13   COOP
1 N Carroll Valley           5.0 in    1030 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter
Cashtown                     4.8 in    0847 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter
Abbottstown 2.0 N            4.0 in    0800 AM 02/13   COCORAHS
1 SW Mcsherrystown           3.7 in    0930 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of only 31 here. Should drop much lower tonight. Glad to see the trends are good for a nice little event to kick off the weekend. 

31 here as well. Dear wife asked me about the weekend weather this morning - told her to hopefully expect a few inches. She looked confused. 

[Bubbler86]

Nam12 really minoring out the Friday night chance for areas to our west...disappointing.   Hope it is an off run.  It may amp up a bit as it gets closer to our area.  

[GrandmasterB]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Model verification for MDT's 7.7" of snow on the normal Global and Meso models at 48 and 24 hours out from 12Z Yesterday (Sun and Mon 12Z Runs).    Cannot see the HRRR's on Pivotal at that point.  Numbers are rounded and pivotal keeps switching from 10:1 or Kuch so tried to double check.    EC and UK are 10:1. 

 

 

This is interesting data. Thanks for compiling it. A few things that stood out to me for this event. Of course, Euro was terrible as mentioned by others. Just horrible.

The GFS was quite good overall and is having an impressive season IMO.

The RGEM should be discontinued. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

This is interesting data. Thanks for compiling it. A few things that stood out to me for this event. Of course, Euro was terrible as mentioned by others. Just horrible.

The GFS was quite good overall and is having an impressive season IMO.

The RGEM should be discontinued. 

Roll out the rgem on good radiational cooling nights. 

[Bubbler86]

Up to the Icon to save the Icon storm. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

This is interesting data. Thanks for compiling it. A few things that stood out to me for this event. Of course, Euro was terrible as mentioned by others. Just horrible.

The GFS was quite good overall and is having an impressive season IMO.

The RGEM should be discontinued. 

I think recently someone...maybe it was @mitchnick shared verification scores for models. I honestly don't remember the details, but what's also interesting to me is how each of us has our own personal lens on how we perceive models perform. For example, regarding the GFS...I tend to agree with you, at least somewhat. Yet, our neighbors to the south are vilifying the GFS and have crowned it the worst model out there right now. I know PSUhoffman is speaking loudly and often at just how awful the GFS is. 

All of this is interesting. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think recently someone...maybe it was @mitchnick shared verification scores for models. I honestly don't remember the details, but what's also interesting to me is how each of us has our own personal lens on how we perceive models perform. For example, regarding the GFS...I tend to agree with you, at least somewhat. Yet, our neighbors to the south are vilifying the GFS and have crowned it the worst model out there right now. I know PSUhoffman is speaking loudly and often at just how awful the GFS is. 

All of this is interesting. 

Plus, some of it is what is being verified.  I suspect PSU is talking LR patterns and the model's ability to slowly adjust changes through runs vs. jumping from one extreme to another.   But I meant what I said about the EC yesterday.  It was dethroned long ago for my purposes of shorter ranger forecasting.    I ignored it all summer because it was rarely correct for ground truth weather.