pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 just because its snowing, doesnt mean schools should close. there is plenty enough info out there for schools to make best logical call with said info. People know that its weather, and not a perfect science....despite techno advances. remember some of us walked uphill.....both ways.....in FEET of snow, and look how we turned out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest Rap totals https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021215&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Latest Rap totals https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021215&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 I'd lock that in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I get it - there's a fine line I guess between getting word out in time to raise awareness vs not having to retract a headline when things swing back in an unfavorable direction. People would ALWAYS take an "all clear" over getting caught off guard. Thats just common logic, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 FWIW, and to the delight of many... MU just caved to the models. He acknowledged a massive shift south in guidance and is gung-ho for a plowable snowstorm. @Blizzard of 93 you said last Thursday evening that you couldn't wait for his map on Monday... It's coming soon, he just stated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ukie https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=54&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think if the Ukie is the absolute floor for this event, that’s a great sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 MU: 3-6" southern tier, more north... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU: 3-6" southern tier, more north... I actually think that’s a bit too aggressive. Gotta hope the rates are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: I actually think that’s a bit too aggressive. Gotta hope the rates are there. He's going 1-3"/hour rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: FWIW, and to the delight of many... MU just caved to the models. He acknowledged a massive shift south in guidance and is gung-ho for a plowable snowstorm. @Blizzard of 93 you said last Thursday evening that you couldn't wait for his map on Monday... It's coming soon, he just stated. I thought he threw winter into the fire a week or so ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: FWIW, and to the delight of many... MU just caved to the models. He acknowledged a massive shift south in guidance and is gung-ho for a plowable snowstorm. @Blizzard of 93 you said last Thursday evening that you couldn't wait for his map on Monday... It's coming soon, he just stated. Noone here wants him to be wrong.....and to your surprise, i enjoy his reads a LOT and think he's a great met....but he's not infallible, and it happens. All of us know its alot more than just model speak that get us storms, but sometimes the feel in here is that we shouldn't discuss unless the weather gods say its happening. This storm is a good example, and part of the fun for those of us that know were C team players (at best). We come here to chat up weather, and IMO that shouldnt be discouraged....but debated often. Thats the fun. And fwiw I hope is early spring call bust badly as well....as we arent sure about next week let alone next month. If I were a betting man, more chips would fall on his side of the bet. Hope you understand my perspective. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I actually think that’s a bit too aggressive. Gotta hope the rates are there. Just now, Itstrainingtime said: He's going 1-3"/hour rates. Maybe he is counting on the coastal more to add to you Eastern guys. Lots of models showing that trend...if not most of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I thought he threw winter into the fire a week or so ago.No that was @canderson Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, mahantango#1 said: I thought he threw winter into the fire a week or so ago. He sure did, well, at least until late February which this doesn't qualify for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Boy if we see this all the way through with where things are at currently this would be one of the biggest shifts south in the short term I’ve seen for around here anytime lately. Some of that high res guidance suggests several of those northern most warned counties don’t even see a flake of snow and folks like atomix and 2001kx are right on the edge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I actually think that’s a bit too aggressive. Gotta hope the rates are there. my concern is the speed of the storm as we lose a good chunk of white qpf to warm thermals and waiting for transfer. 1-2 hours off and boom becomes bust for some of us southers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It's kind of like we live in the 1800s today. Will it snow? Maybe. Will it rain? Maybe. Will it be dry? Maybe. Wake up tomorrow, God willing, and find out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe he is counting on the coastal more to add to you Eastern guys. Lots of models showing that trend...if not most of them. Good point. Until he elaborates, I'm not sure. His amounts I pulled from the comments section on X. A lot of models are showing a relative minima in accumulations just west of the river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Good point. Until he elaborates, I'm not sure. His amounts I pulled from the comments section on X. A lot of models are showing a relative minima in accumulations just west of the river. Minima...using that fencing Met speak! Did you read a Cosgrove email this AM? I see some people elsewhere throwing the ground hog under the bus assuming big snow tomorrow. The ground hog said early spring. I am not sure what the exacts are on that, but I doubt he/she meant second week of Feb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Once again, props to the GFS Op for sniffin this one out. 6 days ago current 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Minima...using that fencing Met speak! Did you read a Cosgrove email this AM? I see some people elsewhere throwing the ground hog under the bus assuming big snow tomorrow. The ground hog said early spring. I am not sure what the exacts are on that, but I doubt he/she meant second week of Feb. LOL, no Cosgrove for me today. Amazing that there are people that take the little 'Hog literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: my concern is the speed of the storm as we lose a good chunk of white qpf to warm thermals and waiting for transfer. 1-2 hours off and boom becomes bust for some of us southers. The progged evolution of the low has appeared to change some. Might not be truly one but it’s more of an A look than a B look now with the low mostly just going right to the coast and deepening pretty far south of PA instead of a distinct primary trying to cut thru WV towards western PA. That’s what really cuts QPF and really sharpens the gradient on the NW side of the storm in western/north central PA. It also is what now puts the whole Sus Valley back in the game. Said yesterday the dynamics are there to snow whereever in PA that swath decides to set up, irregardless of elevation. There’s going to be intense rates in that banding. It is going to be moving pretty fast either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Boy if we see this all the way through with where things are at currently this would be one of the biggest shifts south in the short term I’ve seen for around here anytime lately. Some of that high res guidance suggests several of those northern most warned counties don’t even see a flake of snow and folks like atomix and 2001kx are right on the edge. Yeah not looking good Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Boy if we see this all the way through with where things are at currently this would be one of the biggest shifts south in the short term I’ve seen for around here anytime lately. Some of that high res guidance suggests several of those northern most warned counties don’t even see a flake of snow and folks like atomix and 2001kx are right on the edge. Pretty amazing I went from worrying about this thing cutting to Cleveland to now this whole storm evolution changing and missing to the south. I think a lot of Mets are baffled by this big of a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The progged evolution of the low has appeared to change some. Might not be truly one but it’s more of an A look than a B look now with the low mostly just going right to the coast and deepening pretty far south of PA instead of a distinct primary trying to cut thru WV towards western PA. That’s what really cuts QPF and really sharpens the gradient on the NW side of the storm in western/north central PA. It also is what now puts the whole Sus Valley back in the game. Said yesterday the dynamics are there to snow whereever in PA that swath decides to set up, irregardless of elevation. There’s going to be intense rates in that banding. It is going to be moving pretty fast either way. and to further that point, at different times, it was technically being shown as an A, and not a B, but has vacillated back n forth to some degree. I'm glad we lost the B look with further S track and less worry for transfer. Some of us have enough to worry about (SE'rs). . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest HRRR is even colder than last hours run. 5AM is just pounding away 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 52/44 and cloudy for late nooners. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 48/36 here in Lebanon…still somewhat hard to believe in 24 hours could be 6+” of snow on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 44 here with very dim sun dp 34 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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