Itstrainingtime Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Well I'll be damned, NAM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: All aboard the Bizz train as the NAM goes wild for all of us! Lol, I’d be happy with half of this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Lol, I’d be happy with half of this!Vintage NAM. Hahahaha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’d be happy with half of this! Id be happy with double that!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3k NAM best run yet, but not nearly as generous as the 12k. I wouldn’t complain about the 5 it shows around Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’d be happy with half of this! The Kuch on Pivotal is close to about what you wish for....6.5" where WB has over 10" in the same spot or very close. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam’d! Let’s goooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 LSV Weenies as they switch from the 12K to 3K snow map. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’d be happy with half of this! Good starting point. Just need a Cashtown jack. When that shows up we can take models serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM is drinking the pre-game happy juice at 18z. If the 18z GFS is similar I will shit a brick, but right now it’s all on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 LSV Weenies as they switch from the 12K to 3K snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LSV Weenies as they switch from the 12K to 3K snow map. Went from 6 to 12 in 6.9 seconds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The NAM isn’t cooking up a different evolution, it’s just south east of all other guidance…which could be a trend. Wait and see now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z 3km NAM and 18z long range HRRR are VERY similar in all aspects. Id take my 5” snowfall as both show for Lebanon. Technically, would be the biggest single snowfall of the year for here as I believe the biggest so far was 4” and I am sitting at 11.5” on the season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, AccuChris said: 18z 3km NAM and 18z long range HRRR are VERY similar in all aspects. Id take my 5” snowfall as both show for Lebanon. Technically, would be the biggest single snowfall of the year for here as I believe the biggest so far was 4” and I am sitting at 11.5” on the season so far I would be happy with anything that gets MDT into double digits as to record keeping. Being at 9" with less than 3 weeks left in Met winter is potentially historically bad (not the worst of course). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Rgem is going to be an ABE special. Stays rain near me through almost the whole storm. Low circulation is not too far from the M/D line as it goes by/forms ending up in the Northern DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-121000- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of south-central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will develop Monday evening and turn to snow overnight into early Tuesday morning. Snow will continue through the early afternoon hours. A two-to-four hour period of heavy snow is possible around daybreak Tuesday when snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-121000- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of south-central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will develop Monday evening and turn to snow overnight into early Tuesday morning. Snow will continue through the early afternoon hours. A two-to-four hour period of heavy snow is possible around daybreak Tuesday when snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour could occur. CTP freshened up the Watch & bumped amounts up again. I liked that they mentioned the 2 to 4 hour heavy snow potential Tuesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Icon shifted south this run but not enough for those of us MDT south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon shifted south this run but not enough for those of us MDT south. Yes, but Significant shift south from 6z to 18z Icon. 6z top 18z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, but Significant shift south from 6z to 18z Icon. 6z top 18z bottom Selinsgrove PA went from 0 at 6z to 10 inches at 18z … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon shifted south this run but not enough for those of us MDT south. Icon and Canadian suites were non-events for our area 24 hours ago and now the RGEM is printing out higher totals not far to our NE and coming more in line with the other guidance. I will be looking at the 0z HRRR long run again to see how consistent it is with itself from 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Concerning the Nam 12, I think it has to be discounted right now after seeing several other suites 18Z runs....with the caveat that it has done this sometimes in the past where it led the way early. If it had been pursuing this line of reasoning the entire time, I would feel better defending it but for now if I were forecasting for the LSV I would be Max 2-4 except fairly far north of Harrisburg. Almost nothing down my way being too far south and west for much coastal help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The height falls are impressive with the upward motion on the NAM Tuesday am; when the cold feeds into a strengthening coastal low, funny things do happen. Just sayin'... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Concerning the Nam 12, I think it has to be discounted right now after seeing several other suites 18Z runs....with the caveat that it has done this sometimes in the past where it led the way early. If it had been pursuing this line of reasoning the entire time, I would feel better defending it but for now if I were forecasting for the LSV I would be Max 2-4 except fairly far north of Harrisburg. Almost nothing down my way being too far south and west for much coastal help. Even if it overcorrected, moving back north 40 miles is fine with me considering where it had me before. I think most in this forum would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS a tad south at 33 but overall looking very similar to 12Z. Going to be an Altoona hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Even if it overcorrected, moving back north 40 miles is fine with me considering where it had me before. I think most in this forum would agree. I think it is more than 40 miles in compare to other models. I think the solution (as Caveman alluded to) is different as well. The life seems greater, and a much larger area turns to snow due to the rate of the precip. At hour 39 the Nam is is only that 20-40 miles south of the GFS but the snow line is a good 100 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Snow falls hard and fast at the end for western LSV on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs was a nice little s/se tick. Vort continued to be weaker and a bit more south out west and as it moved E. It was a nice improvement surprisingly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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