mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This ain't bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Wth happened the much advertised thteat on the Eps for the 23-24th? In 12 hours you get this after 7-10 of looking decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Nevermind. It seems to correct with slp off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 My NWS forecast has a chance of thunderstorms after 1pm tomorrow. That's strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 33 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: My NWS forecast has a chance of thunderstorms after 1pm tomorrow. That's strange I had not noticed myself but HRRR does this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I had not noticed myself but HRRR does this I believe one of JB's old sayings was thunder in March and expect snow within a week. I wonder if that applies to Feb as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I like the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I like the 18z nam A nice example of rate induced snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I like the 18z nam As do I, would have been tasty I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: As do I, would have been tasty I believe Rgem is slower, but 500mb and 700mb looked great and was ready to crash temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, mitchnick said: Rgem is slower, but 500mb and 700mb looked great and was ready to crash temps. I take that back at least wrt temps. Warmer than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I take that back at least wrt temps. Warmer than I expected. Mid 40's at 1AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Mid 40's at 1AM! What do those Canadians know about cold and snow anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, mitchnick said: What do those Canadians know about cold and snow anyway! Rgem at least off the 1003 low escaping to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 NWS SC Take LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... *Increasing potential for plowable to possibly heavy snow Monday night into early Tuesday | February 12-13th The latest 09/12z GEFS/ECMWF mean guidance are reasonably clustered and show a deepening sfc low tracking ENEWD from the Central Appalachians (NC/TN/VA/KY/WV borders) to the southern DelMarVa Monday night and off the southern New England coast by early Tuesday. This remains generally in line with the earlier 09/00z and 09/06z model guidance, but with a slightly more amplified and deeper (less progressive) run/run trend. Given the marginal to potentially "manufactured" cold air due to dynamic wet-bulb cooling, the GFS/EC operational model runs seem to be at least somewhat overdone with cranking out swath of heavy snow. There will also likely be a significant snowfall rate and elevation dependency that further adds to the ptype complexity of the impending storm system. While just outside the gridded snow accumulation period with this cycle, the probability for a stripe of 3-6" of snow continues to increase over central PA with higher amounts possible. The north/south position of the axis remains uncertain, but latest guidance favors the central portion of the forecast area extending ENE with wrap-back and banding into the Poconos. To further contextualize the model spread, the NBM 25th-75th percentile for State College currently ranges from 0 to 4 inches. Timing has come into better agreement with the heaviest precip rates occurring Monday night into early Tuesday. Still plenty of details issues to be resolved with the most likely travel impacts and disruptions centered in the Monday night to early Tuesday timeframe. The potential phasing of the upper jet and rapid coastal intensification response could result in strong northwest winds across the area on the backside of the storm and trigger lake-enhanced/upslope snow showers across the western Alleghenies. The pre-Valentine`s Day storm will trigger a pattern reversal back to seasonable winter cold for the rest of next week. Additional chances for snow appear limited outside of some snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and with a couple of clipper-type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Rgem at least off the 1003 low escaping to the south. 850's aren't bad and they would be sucked south, but definitely rain to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Icon got a lot closer to mby with snow. Now only painfully close instead of hopelessly close. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon got a lot closer to mby with snow. Now only painfully close instead of hopelessly close. Lol Gfs stinks, icon has come south a good bit. Gfs and icon now northern end of guidance, with nam euro uk ggem them all south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Gfs stinks, icon has come south a good bit. Gfs and icon now northern end of guidance, with nam euro uk ggem them all south Gfs puts mby in a snow-hole notch with 5-6" 3 miles to my east and 1 mile to my west while I literally get 0 snow. Ummm, Gfs ain't that good. Lol Just a glitch with the program that creates the plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, mitchnick said: Gfs puts mby in a snow-hole notch with 5-6" 3 miles to my east and 1 mile to my west while I literally get 0 snow. Ummm, Gfs ain't that good. Lol Just a glitch with the program that creates the plots. I was thinking it was worse than 12z noticeably, but it’s really not. Gives us hope it goes back the other way tonight like the euro and others have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Lanco mocking me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I think some people are already drinking at Happy hour?!? The 18z GFS IMPROVED over 12z…even for the southern tier. Reminder… Most of us don’t live right on the MD line, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Warning level snow this run even down to York & Lancaster this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z GFS top 18z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think some people are already drinking at Happy hour?!? The 18z GFS IMPROVED over 12z…even for the southern tier. Reminder… Most of us don’t live right on the MD line, lol! In some ways, it did. H5&h7 axis are a few miles north, which we’d want to see go the other way. But, the low is in a similar position as 12z and more amped sooner with a 987 on DE coast. If this storm was 6 hours slower with that same evolution, it would be 6”+ M/D like north. there was a formidable ccb on 18z. If we can get the gfs a bit south like some of the other models at that intensity, it’ll show a primo outcome for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, DDweatherman said: In some ways, it did. H5&h7 axis are a few miles north, which we’d want to see go the other way. But, the low is in a similar position as 12z and more amped sooner with a 987 on DE coast. If this storm was 6 hours slower with that same evolution, it would be 6”+ M/D like north. there was a formidable ccb on 18z. If we can get the gfs a bit south like some of the other models at that intensity, it’ll show a primo outcome for most Let’s do this! Happy Friday all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s do this! Happy Friday all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Bubbler86 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 18z GEFS looks very nice for all of us… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS looks very nice for all of us… That’s beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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