Central PA Winter 23/24

[Bubbler86]

[mitchnick]

Ukie

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I mean, Birmingham got like a foot during the 93 storm. They're due.

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Time to get back into some James Spann again...

[WmsptWx]

he is probably on double secret probation or some shit.

I was told that if I crossed the line again, they would write a very strongly-worded letter. My response was "I promise my words would be stronger."

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[Bubbler86]

Late Nooners.  58.    MDT only at 48. 

[WmsptWx]

22 minutes after Nooners: 58°F and cloudy.

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[Itstrainingtime]

53 in Maytown at 12:40pm. 

[Itstrainingtime]

A big MU update:

Regarding the Monday night-Tuesday system, there is still an immense amount of uncertainty regarding its track and intensity. Much depends on the interaction between the two disturbances highlighted below. The closer together they are, the stronger the system..

(2/4) The upper-level pattern across North America will also be a major player. A ridge axis over the Intermountain West (GFS model - 1st image) would allow the system to "dig" farther south & deepen, while a subtle trough (ECMWF model - 2nd image) would promote a weaker system..

(3/4) Regardless of the ultimate outcome, surface temps will be above freezing and very marginal for snow across northern MD, southeastern PA, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. In order for rain to change over to snow and accumulate, precipitation will need to fall heavily..

4/4) The storm is still about 4 days away, so I won't be able to finesse the details until Monday. For now, I still favor an outcome with no accumulating snow south of the PA Turnpike. Don't pay attention to forecast snowfall maps until Sunday. They're bound to fail.

[Itstrainingtime]

Sorry, I wasn't able to post the images he was referring to above. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sorry, I wasn't able to post the images he was referring to above. 

Kicking snow maps to the curb.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Kicking snow maps to the curb.  

[Itstrainingtime]

MA long range thread is getting spicy...we need snow soon, and bad...

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MA long range thread is getting spicy...we need snow soon, and bad...

Ground Chuck

[canderson]

Temps were always going to be an issue and they look incredibly marginal at best. I guess snow falling is better than rain falling so I won’t complain. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Someone break out the actual snowfalls per member and see if we have some outliers causing that.   I do not have access unfortunately.   Cheap. 

While hopefully feasting on the Euro over my lunch….

Here are the 12z GEFS individual ensemble members,

I count roughly 20 of the 30 members would work for many of us.

[MAG5035]

Euro looking generally similar to last nights 0z. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sorry, I wasn't able to post the images he was referring to above. 

https://x.com/MUweather/status/1755994196190564408?s=20

Edit:  I thought that would embed that actual tweet but nope.  I know from my cell I can sometimes include the tweet.  Whatever.....technology.

 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro looking generally similar to last nights 0z. 

Wound up and farther north than the faster/less qpf solutions.  Razor thin temp profiles for the LSV.   Quite a bit of rain south of I81. 

[Blizzard of 93]

14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro looking generally similar to last nights 0z. 

The initial low in the 12z Euro gets to WV before the transfer to the coastal.

Slight improvement over 0z Euro on the Kuchera snow maps for Rouzerville, York & Harrisburg areas.

Good run especially turnpike area on north.

[Blizzard of 93]

We will need good rates to get the job done.

[Bubbler86]

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Temps were always going to be an issue and they look incredibly marginal at best. I guess snow falling is better than rain falling so I won’t complain. 

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxZi8g72VTm97tb4O6_Pn-apXFonBIxQzH?si=yeza7Y1VC8gmD5ya

[Mount Joy Snowman]

One thing that's becoming clear for those of us here in the southern LSV, is that this is the ultimate thread the needle situation.  Speed of the system, surface temps, potency and path of the Low.......all of it needs to be juuuuust right for us to get meaningful snowfall down this way.  And even then, a wet snow falling onto a rain-soaked warm ground will not make for the most efficient accumulations.  It can be done but it's definitely a Goldilocks situation.  I think this is ultimately a storm for true central to northern PA.  As always, hope to be wrong. 

[mitchnick]

Little disappointing down here with 2-2.5", but that's enough to cover the grass, which does it for me.

[MAG5035]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wound up and farther north than the faster/less qpf solutions.  Razor thing temp profiles for the LSV.   Quite a bit of rain south of I81. 

 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The initial low in the 12z Euro gets to WV before the transfer to the coastal.

Slight improvement on the Kuchera snow maps for Rouzerville, York & Harrisburg areas.

Good run especially turnpike area on north.

 

Yea it does present a longer period of rain in the Lower Sus Valley before progged changeover, a scenario I said yesterday would have a high potential to disappoint there. The southern third of PA seems to be on a pretty fine line with the guidance suite today with the last couple GFS runs edging up just a bit. Have to see how the Euro EPS looks in a bit in comparison to the GEFS. 6z Euro EPS looked pretty nice but had more of a central Sus Valley focus on the swath of best probs for >3”. Some pretty high totals on the ops, but I think this has a heaviest swath of 6-10” type potential with it (a bit more once towards New England). 

Definitely need the rapidly strengthening coastal low and associated dynamics (obviously without the primary cutting up too far).  A weaker one probably isn’t going to get the job done in terms of initiating a meaningful changeover outside of the central/northern. 

[MAG5035]

56 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MA long range thread is getting spicy...we need snow soon, and bad...

The Downfall video, lol 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The Downfall video, lol 

I love that video though the basis of it super terrible so do not ever post it.   There have been sooooo many Memes.

 

Euro with drastic changes MR vs. yesterday.  Beach living.

 

[Santa Clause]

Channeling the spirit of Frank Yankovic and pcn tours to will a region wide warning snow 

[Bubbler86]

Up to 63 here.  MDT at 55 in the race for the record.   Going to need to pick up the pace there.   THV 61.

[WmsptWx]

I speak broken, shitty high school German, and I decided one time to sit down and watch Downfall in Deutsch.

I spent the next two months telling everyone and everything that they were Fegelein.

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[mitchnick]

Eps are sweet vs operational.