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Central PA Winter 23/24


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4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Clouds finally breaking up. The grass here has been basically green all winter and I can see at certain areas that it was still growing even though the rate of growth is so small. I get the assumption your trying to get a jump on the lawn mowing competition for 2024.

I am trying to keep it down.  LOL.  It is on the beginning of the last month of winter.  I do not want grass.  Usually my first mow is not until late April or May. 

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Tonight
Oh to live out West in the Sierras
 
A chance of snow showers before 10pm, then snow likely after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow before 10pm, then snow showers after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.
Monday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
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6 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said:

Cashtown takes the prize for warmest temperature across the state for January.    Not exactly what I was rooting for.  

BEE7F2EB-47E5-445C-83F3-AE4C6409F81D.jpeg

Some areas down here got up to 76, just not official stations, if that makes you feel any better.   Laurel Summitt got more snow that some combos of years here. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Some areas down here got up to 76, just not official stations, if that makes you feel any better. 

Yeah, when I’m out driving around I’ll look around at how people install these home stations ( on roof tops, next to black top driveways etc).  I hope they don’t take their observations too seriously.   

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22 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said:

Yeah, when I’m out driving around I’ll look around at how people install these home stations ( on roof tops, next to black top driveways etc).  I hope they don’t take their observations too seriously.   

My amateur one installed fairly well about 6' off the ground with vent shield and little sun and got to 74 or 75.   HGR was over 70 as well.    I would believe anything between 70-75.    Rooftop is not realistic, I agree, but some sites say it is a good way to do it.   On a day like this day in particular, I am almost always going to be higher than you without any valley protection like you have. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range. 


1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything else has. We’ve actually had some incredibly impressive blocking regimes recently.  Just often they’ve been muted by a god awful pacific. But seeing the mjo progressing towards 7/8 in a Nino combined with our two previous blocking regimes this winter left me with little doubt that the nao block would be legit. 
 

2) if you look at all the best analogs to this winter, 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010, 2016, there was a period at some point where things lined up and we got this look. There is variability to when it happened. There is chaos within the patterns. But they all at some point lined up for a period conducive to big snowstorms. The only basin wide strong Ninos that didn’t were the fluke seasons of 92 and 95 where we got no nao help all winter. 
 

This just makes sense. It’s supported by everything we see now. Mjo progression. SPV state. Tanking soi. Historically it fits. This is why I said the bar this season has to be high. This really is the rare once a decade type season where we have the potential to go way above avg snowfall. We have to take advantage of it. I think there is a very good chance we do.  

I am so pumped for the upcoming pattern change. It’s great to see @psuhoffman so confident as well.

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I am so pumped for the upcoming pattern change. It’s great to see [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] so confident as well.
Wow, so he's basically calling for 3 weeks or greater like that week in January we had. Or a mecs to HECS.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Trying to get you out gardening earlier. Have you had any good cocktails recently?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Nothing noteworthy. A friend did send me some beer from Honolulu Beerworks though and they’re quite good. 

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Things have been slower on the work front so finally had  a chance to download and consolidate all 23 available Chester County climate data sites (see below table for detail). All stations have been weighted equally for all years they were reporting data . I then compared the all average temperature by decade data to the NCEI NOAA Chester County PA average temperatures reported by decade. As expected the greatest downward post observation adjustments to the data were during the warmest raw data reported decades of the 1930's and 1940's with  a gradual reduction in cooling that started in the 1950's finally resulting in what are now warming adjustments during the most recent 2 decades.

image.thumb.png.bd958d9bfe86545394b9d03b31391edb.png

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I'm sorry, I  do not like at all that broad, oval ridge in the west that's poking itself into the TN Valley approaching the Mid Atlantic, most pronounced on the Eps and Geps, less so on the Gefs. If that keeps expanding (go look at all 3 ensembles days 12 to end), that will suppress southern systems imho and eventually provide a warmup before the next uneventful cold front moves south.

I  certainly hope I'm wrong, but it will throw a monkey wrench into our pattern vs a needed n/s oriented ridge.

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I edited the above post as I  mistakenly posted n/s trough instead of ridge.

I see what you mean, but I think we will be good with the strong blocking up top, the STJ under cutting, & the 50/50 showing nicely at range. 
 It’s just a matter of time until we get hit with a Winter Storm in my opinion & the opinion of lots of posters & pros.

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